Notting Hill Carnival Strategic Review - Intelligent Space

information about visitors would be required for future planning. For example, there was no
reliable information about visitor profiles and what their main interests were in the carnival.
Also, no survey of the public transport origins and destinations has ever been carried out for
Carnival, and this has prevented LUL or London Buses from modelling the potential impact of
transport strategies (such as the closure of specific tubes) on the pattern of transport use.
This data limitation is also important for crowd models, as the possible concentration of arrival
and departure flows are strongly influenced by the levels of tube use, not just capacity. This
could also be used to provide information on the level of demand for the different carnival
attractions.
The Value of Computer Modelling
2.95 The value of the use of computer modelling at a more detailed level to help assess the
potential effect of specific crowd management policies, such as the location of route barriers
or the timing of a float management plan was also identified by the Safety Project. In this
way, the models could be developed as an operational tool, as opposed to their current use as
decision support tool for choosing appropriate route options. As with the risk assessment,
crowd models for Carnival would also have to develop and change in the light of new
evidence.
Safety versus Politics
2.96 It was clear that the route introduced in 2002, whilst proposed by the local authorities had not
been risk assessed under the Carnival Public Safety Project, even though the Review Group
had engaged in a lengthy and detailed liaison process with stakeholders. Moreover, the route
did not enjoy the support of the Carnival community, who felt that they were not in a position
to influence and/or participate in the decision-making process. A number of notable issues
are relevant here. As part of the LSE Study, a number of strategic planning workshops were
organised between key organizations involved in the planning and management of the
Carnival 66 . The initial focus of the workshops included the changing nature of the Carnival,
finance and commercialisation, crowd growth and the geographical spread of the Carnival
area. Priority areas identified by workshop attendees included the control of the procession
(plus route design issues such as route capacity, crowd dynamics, float entry and exit points
etc), sound systems, funding options, national recognition and communications. The LSE
workshops are significant because as a result of the decision support provided by the study,
the stakeholder groups were able to reach a consensus on the potential value of the Hyde
Park ‘savannah’ option:
“In this case, the arena option was seen as involving a one-way route to an arena outside the
current boundaries of Carnival, instead of the current circular route. This possible change in
the physical arrangements for Carnival meant that it was necessary to include criteria to assess
the cultural, artistic and public order implications. The evaluations…..demonstrated
significant unexpected advantages in favour of the arena option for (in increasing order)
safety, adequate funding, cultural celebration, and promotion of carnival disciplines.”
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The organisations were: Notting Hill Carnival Trust, Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea, Tenant Management Organisation,
Metropolitan Police Service.
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