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Training of Trainers - Library - Network of Aquaculture Centres in ...

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o G=(0.95) 1/10G =0.994883803Figure 3. Probabilities <strong>of</strong> los<strong>in</strong>g an allele (frequencies f = 0.001 – 0.5) for various N e . These probabilities are for as<strong>in</strong>gle event (spawn<strong>in</strong>g season or acquisition <strong>of</strong> brood stock).• Step 2: Calculate the probability (P) <strong>of</strong> los<strong>in</strong>g allele per generationoProbability <strong>of</strong> los<strong>in</strong>g = 1 – probability <strong>of</strong> sav<strong>in</strong>go Probability <strong>of</strong> los<strong>in</strong>g = 1 – 0.994883803o Probability <strong>of</strong> los<strong>in</strong>g = 0.005116196882• Step 3: Calculate the N e that is needed to produce a P = 0.005116196882 when q = 0.01 (the frequency <strong>of</strong> theallele you are try<strong>in</strong>g to save):ooP = (1-q) 2N e0.005116196882 = (1-0.01) 2N eo N e = 262.5• N e is rounded to the next whole number, so a N e = 263 is needed every generation on order to produce a 95%guarantee <strong>of</strong> sav<strong>in</strong>g an allele with frequency <strong>of</strong> 0.01 when the 10 th generation is produced.Although we do not expect the farmers to calculate the N e <strong>in</strong> this case it is advisable that extension <strong>of</strong>ficers ortechnical workers be aware <strong>of</strong> this and help farmers <strong>in</strong> achiev<strong>in</strong>g the goal <strong>of</strong> the hatcheries.BottleneckIn practice it is difficult to ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> m<strong>in</strong>imum constant Ne. Many factors conspire to occasionally reduce populationsize. These sudden drastic decreases <strong>in</strong> population size are called “bottleneck”. The genetic effects <strong>of</strong> bottleneckcan be devastat<strong>in</strong>g, i.e. lead<strong>in</strong>g to changes <strong>in</strong> allele frequencies and <strong>in</strong>breed<strong>in</strong>g and genetic drift.Causes <strong>of</strong> bottleneck can be any sudden changes <strong>in</strong> environment such as disease outbreaks, or flood<strong>in</strong>g, orsudden decrease <strong>in</strong> temperature that take away large number <strong>of</strong> brood stock. As such <strong>in</strong> order to avoid bottleneck,care must be taken <strong>in</strong>to account to avoid sudden changes <strong>in</strong> the environment that may cause severe fish kills.41

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