Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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those that involved collaboration with other crime prevention partners. The point ofcentral importance is that the availability of accurate prospective maps requiresreconsideration of tactical options in order for their potential to be realised.• Interviews with front-line officers were undertaken towards the end of the project.Across the five sections of the BCU, there were differences in the degree to whichofficers could define what the system actually did. In one area, only 27 per cent ofofficers interviewed could provide an accurate description, although in the remainingfour areas a better understanding was apparent, with 75-92 per cent providing gooddefinitions. There were also differences across the five areas with respect to howfrequently the maps were reported to have been used to inform police tactics.Typically, the maps were reported to have been used more often in those areas inwhich officers had a better understanding of Promap. This suggests that further effortshould be expended to ensure that officers have a full appreciation of the approachbefore implementation begins.• There was a marked reduction of domestic burglary during the pilot study. This was amixed blessing. On the plus side, burglary declined more in the pilot area than in thecomparison area, and declined most during the shift for which the police had thegreatest opportunity to use, and reported most frequently using, Promap. On thenegative side, this meant that priorities other than domestic burglary came to the fore,with diminished use of the maps as a consequence. Further, the decline in burglarywas evident when implementation was at a rudimentary stage, and hence it is difficultto attribute the change to Promap. A fair test of the potential of prospective mappingmay only be realised when the method is tested across a range of areas and ideallywhen it is extended to cover a range of crime types. This was beyond the scope of thecurrent project, for which the aim was to determine the potential utility of the system.This research design is consistent with clinical trials of new pharmaceuticals, wherebydifferent phases of the trial are used to evaluate the efficacy of the drug. The initialphase, analogous to the approach adopted here, is essentially designed to uncover anyproblems with the drug and potential effectiveness rather than to demonstrate asystematic effect.An important element of the research was to gain feedback from those involved in the pilotingprocess to assess the potential of this type of system. A key message from this process wasthat the development of Promap is seen as a promising route towards intelligence-drivenpolice patrolling and the informed allocation of responsibilities within crime and disorderreduction partnerships. This is evidenced by the fact that (as noted above) officers enquiredabout the potential (immediate) development of the system for other types of crime, includingtheft from a vehicle.RecommendationsThe potential applications of Promap are manifold. It would have been too much to expectthat this potential could be fully exploited within a six-month trial period, where all parties werestarting from scratch. Listed below are a number of recommendations for implementation thatcould help realise improvements in operational practice, and a consequent reduction in crime.• Police officers located in diverse areas could be consulted in the development of themaps so that their operational usefulness can be tailored to different contexts. Mapscould distinguish between areas for which risks are increasing and those for whichthe level of risk is stable or declining. Which type of map is most useful may dependupon resources available and problem profiles. Bespoke mapping systems, locallyoptimised and responsive to tasking and co-ordination wishes are feasible.• All those tasked with acting upon the maps might be provided with regularinformation, which could become an integral part of the daily routine. If possible, newmaps should be provided two to three times per week and display shift-specific risks.viii
• To maintain momentum the system could either become part of the long-termroutines of operational policing or used for time-limited highly resourced operations. Amiddle ground, where attention is only paid when burglary is a priority, would limit theutility and understanding of the system.• Risks identified by Promap could usefully be combined with other forms of intelligenceto optimise operations. For example, high risk areas could be scanned for trends indata on modus operandi or for information on known offenders which could help focuspolice tactics. This type of analysis could, to some extent, be automated, therebyfreeing analyst time to allow a more thorough interrogation of patterns, and for themto consider the range of crime reductive responses possible.• It would be desirable to develop procedures that enabled evaluation of the systemwithout any demand on police time or resources. For example, an index of changes inthe patterns of crime clustering over time could be automatically produced andrecorded. Evaluation would also be facilitated by systematic documentation of theactivities and arrests made by beat officers, although any paperwork burden wouldneed to be minimised, perhaps through the use of a simple computerised datacollection tool.• In any mapping system, the risks identified are relative to the level of crime in aparticular area, and to the time frame selected for analysis. Hence it is possible toproduce maps showing areas of relatively high risk even when there is a lull in theunderlying problem. Thus, for the crime type(s) predicted some indication of theanticipated scale of the problem would be a useful additional feature of the system.• The authors believe that Promap should be extended to other crime types, such asvehicle crime and violence. Predictions may be produced for all crime (if subsequentempirical research suggests this to be sensible) and weighted by seriousness of eachcrime type. Because different types of crime might require different solutions, anindication of the anticipated volume of each type could be provided as an indication ofwhat to prioritise and when.As noted above, the use of forecasting systems such as Promap should encourage thecontinual consideration and reconsideration of operational tactics. Favoured approaches mayrequire rethinking when it is possible to more accurately predict where resources are mostneeded.The future?It is believed that the development of the techniques described will offer a step change in thepower and applicability of crime mapping as a tool of crime reduction. In perhaps fifteenyears, using techniques such as those discussed here and those as yet unrealised, predictivemapping could be available for all crime types; real time information on risk would therebybecome available to police patrols, where the seriousness of different crime types is weightedautomatically so that an optimal patrolling pattern is provided to each police vehicle tomaximise the total seriousness of crimes to be preventively patrolled. Using Promap typesystems in concert with Lab-on-a-chip forensic testing, where DNA and other tests would bepossible in police vehicles, would facilitate swift forensic identification of perpetrators ofcrimes not prevented, and patrolling informed by Promap would mean faster response timesto arrive before crime scenes are compromised for forensic purposes. In parallel withoptimised patrolling, Promap would deliver information about longer-term patterns andstabilities in crime and disorder to Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships, enabling themto put in place design and maintenance changes. Nothing in such a future is unfeasible evenwith today’s technology. It does however require an effort of imagination to discern thecentrality of prospective mapping to such a future. While the East Midlands study reportedhere was in most respects successful, the big prizes of intelligent crime reductive practice willbe won only through an integrated developed programme rather than a succession of ad hocpiecemeal projects.ix
Page 2 and 3: 1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIM
Page 4 and 5: ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive s
Page 6 and 7: 2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
Page 8 and 9: Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
Page 12 and 13: 1. IntroductionThis report represen
Page 14 and 15: optimally calibrated system, the go
Page 16 and 17: e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
Page 18 and 19: Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
Page 20 and 21: Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 22 and 23: Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
Page 24 and 25: Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 26 and 27: Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
Page 28 and 29: The results for area 5 again demons
Page 30 and 31: The bandwidth used to generate the
Page 32: a densely populated urban area this
Page 35 and 36: Table 2.24: Average number of crime
Page 37 and 38: Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
Page 39 and 40: 3. Tactical options and selecting a
Page 41 and 42: Selecting a pilot siteThe decision
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
Page 45 and 46: Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
Page 47 and 48: Other potential tactical optionsAt
Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
Page 53 and 54: unfortunately, implementation or us
Page 55 and 56: any tactical options were employed
Page 57 and 58: the end of the pilot. In addition t
Page 59 and 60: Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
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the busy schedule of the new Divisi
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Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily
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Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
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permitted, up to four plain clothed
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observation made by those who used
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A simple time-series analysis (see
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Two approaches were used to compute
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Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
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Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
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With respect to implementation real
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ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
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Johnson, S.D., Summers, L., and Pea
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Appendix 1. The information technol
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Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
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Recommendations that may be realise
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Section 1: knowledge and understand
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Extra Comments (please outline any
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In relation to the evaluation of in
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Time-series analysisFor the purpose
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Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial
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Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
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To recapitulate and elaborate, the
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Concluding comments on methodThe te
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Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
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Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
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Produced by the Research Developmen
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Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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