Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

7. ConclusionsIn this section, the main findings of the research will be discussed and recommendations inspired bythem presented. The central aims of the current project were as follows:• to determine whether patterns of burglary are communicable across a range of areas;• to test the accuracy of a predictive mapping system across the same areas and compare itwith contending alternatives;• to tailor the system for use in an operational context;• to see if the system could be used operationally and how it was received by those who mightuse it; and• to test the efficacy of the system during a field trial in one police BCU.The first four aims were achieved. The results demonstrated that across all areas the risk of burglarywas communicable. Following a burglary at one home the risk to those nearby was elevated for aperiod of time afterwards. This pattern conformed to a pattern of spatial and temporal decay. Thosenearest were at the greatest risk, and the change in risk decreased as time elapsed. Further researchdemonstrated that when events occurred close in space and time they tended to do so at a similartime of day. For repeat victimisation proper, this consistency also emerged around five to six weekslater, a finding compatible with explanations of the timing in the elevation in risk often observed for thetime course of repeat victimisation more generally (i.e. offenders revisiting homes to steal replacedgoods). Exploratory analyses described later in the report considered the length of space-timeclusters of crime for one area. This approach will be developed in ongoing research underway by theauthors.Recommendation 1 Given the evident ubiquity of the space-time clustering of burglary across theareas studied, it would be wise for some of the analyses discussed in the report to be conducted bypolice analysts to provide a better understanding of crime in their area. Whilst simple analyticsoftware is currently unavailable, an application that performs the same kinds of analyses describedhere is currently being developed as part of a National Institute for Justice-funded project (Ratcliffe,2006). This will be released as freeware in 2007 and will be compatible with a variety of off-the-shelfsoftware tools.Recommendation 2 Where it is found that crime (burglary and other types) clusters in space and timeacutely, strategies aimed at the prevention of further crimes in a local spate could be developed toprevent or detect crimes. As a short-term strategy, this could be partially achieved (for example) usinga GIS and the prioritisation of police resources by police analysts to homes nearby, and similar tothose recently burgled. A number of police forces, including Cleveland, Dorset and the Police Servicefor Northern Ireland have developed such strategies. Relative to Promap, this will be a sub-optimalapproach but may be a useful first step.As for the accuracy of Promap, this method was shown to be superior to those extant, even when thelatter were optimised. In addition to producing maps that more accurately predicted where futureburglaries occurred, the maps identified more coalescent areas for targeted patrolling. Furtherdevelopment of the system involved the inclusion of an opportunity surface that was used to weightthe predictions made. This enhanced the accuracy of the system still further. Prior to implementation,a final feature of the mapping system developed was the facility to produce predictions on a shift-byshiftbasis, which understandably appealed to those who used the system.Despite initial scepticism by some officers, by the end of the pilot the system was well received andgenerally perceived as a useful tool for targeted crime reduction. As testament to this, a number ofofficers asked if the technique could be applied to other types of crime such as theft from a motorvehicle. Recent work by the authors suggests this to be the case (Johnson et al., 2006), and furtherprojected work will seek to develop this use. An additional feature of the future system, welcomed bythose interviewed as part of the project, would be the facility to anticipate changes in which crime typeshould be prioritised for reduction over the next few days or weeks.67