Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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Type ofInterventionNeighbourhoodWatchSchemes &“CocoonWatches”Forensic Traps(i.e. chemicallytreated mats topick upintruders footprints) & silentalarmsStudyLaycock & Tilley(1995);Forrester et al.(1990)Research todate is limited –Anderson et al.(1995)Does itwork?+/ --- / -Evidence Cost CostDetails+/--- NW has a greater impactwhen residents are homeduring the day. The virtualcocoon that is formed byalert neighbours around theburgled home can increasethe likelihood that anoffender will be caught ifhe/she returns to theproperty. Target cocoonsrather than generalschemes perhaps workbest.--- In relation to burglary ofretail premises both Clarke(2002) and Tilley & Hopkins(1998) emphasise thatthese high-tech devicescan pose numerouspractical problems.Evidence is good on theeffectiveness of silentalarms (Anderson et al.).Financiallow/med/highCelerityslow/med/swiftSituationalCrimePreventionArea orSpecificlocationPolicePartners InvolvedLocalAuthorityMulti-AgencyGroupLow Med Area High Med Specific 35
Other potential tactical optionsAt the time of completing this phase of the research, the published literature on theeffectiveness of various burglary reduction options/tactics was reviewed. To stimulatealternative ways of thinking, also discussed were tentative suggestions for further tacticswhich may complement the ‘near repeat’ burglary victimisation pattern. Due to thecommunicability of risk in time as well as space, meaning that risks surround burgled homesfor a fairly limited time period, many of the suggested measures take existing technologiesand add a time dimension to them. Note that the redeployable CCTV option outlined in thematrix above, an example of this type of approach, is not without its problems. Theseapproaches would therefore only work in a setting where measures could be relocated swiftly.The proposed measures use the following research findings:• that risks are concentrated within 400m and one month;• that some areas have particularly high levels of near repeats; and• that near repeats often share MO characteristics (see Bowers and Johnson,2005b)Use of ANPR/surveillance ‘rings’One possible detection-focused scheme could ‘net’ high risk areas. This could involve amobile ring of covert cameras and/or Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) devicessurrounding the area. Here a burgled house in the middle of areas where burglary clusters inspace and time would be identified and cameras placed around it at a 400m radius. Thisprovides a way of monitoring all entrances and exits to the area for a limited period of time.This is now set up to act a little like a sting operation as the likelihood is that there will befurther activity in the area. If a further burglary does happen it should be possible to narrowdown when it occurred, to a reasonable time band at least, by asking the victim and looking atthe police record. It would then be possible to look at people and vehicles exiting/entering thearea for a feasible time band during which they could have entered the area and conductedthe burglary. With ANPR it would be possible to work with the Driver & Vehicle LicensingAgency (DVLA) to rule out cars that were registered within the area, which would leave asubset of cars to investigate.Moveable publicityThis would involve the use of offender-orientated publicity. To increase the perceived risks ofcommitting burglary in an area when risk is highest (for perhaps two weeks after an initialburglary), signs could be erected around the boundary of the area with a message indicatingthat people are entering a high-priority burglary clampdown area. The use of surplus policevehicles parked in strategic places (as is sometimes done to deter filling station drive-offs)would be one available form of publicity.Repeat Victimisation neighbours schemeSimilar to a cocoon-watch approach, this would involve always target-hardening houses acertain number of doors away from a repeatedly burgled home, as well as enhancing thesecurity of the property itself. It may be that a general publicity campaign describing the nearrepeatsphenomenon would sensitise otherwise complacent neighbours to take crimereduction measures.Targeted, MO-specific crime prevention adviceThe same vulnerability is often exploited in near-repeat incidents. This means that it ispossible to produce intelligence on the likely MOs of future incidents of burglary. This couldbe used as a basis for prioritising different elements of risk assessments. Crime preventionadvice and assistance would be tailored to MO type and provided to as many nearneighbours of a burgled house as possible. It would (of course) also direct patrolling officersto the part of a home through which entry is most likely to be gained.36
Page 2 and 3: 1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIM
Page 4 and 5: ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive s
Page 6 and 7: 2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
Page 8 and 9: Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
Page 10 and 11: those that involved collaboration w
Page 12 and 13: 1. IntroductionThis report represen
Page 14 and 15: optimally calibrated system, the go
Page 16 and 17: e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
Page 18 and 19: Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
Page 20 and 21: Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 22 and 23: Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
Page 24 and 25: Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 26 and 27: Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
Page 28 and 29: The results for area 5 again demons
Page 30 and 31: The bandwidth used to generate the
Page 32: a densely populated urban area this
Page 35 and 36: Table 2.24: Average number of crime
Page 37 and 38: Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
Page 39 and 40: 3. Tactical options and selecting a
Page 41 and 42: Selecting a pilot siteThe decision
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
Page 45: Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
Page 53 and 54: unfortunately, implementation or us
Page 55 and 56: any tactical options were employed
Page 57 and 58: the end of the pilot. In addition t
Page 59 and 60: Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
Page 61 and 62: the busy schedule of the new Divisi
Page 63 and 64: Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily
Page 65 and 66: Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
Page 67 and 68: permitted, up to four plain clothed
Page 69 and 70: observation made by those who used
Page 71 and 72: A simple time-series analysis (see
Page 73 and 74: Two approaches were used to compute
Page 75 and 76: Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
Page 77 and 78: Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
Page 79 and 80: With respect to implementation real
Page 81 and 82: ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
Page 83 and 84: Johnson, S.D., Summers, L., and Pea
Page 85 and 86: Appendix 1. The information technol
Page 87 and 88: Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
Page 89 and 90: Recommendations that may be realise
Page 91 and 92: Section 1: knowledge and understand
Page 93 and 94: Extra Comments (please outline any
Page 95 and 96: In relation to the evaluation of in
Page 97 and 98:
Time-series analysisFor the purpose
Page 99 and 100:
Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial
Page 101 and 102:
Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
Page 103 and 104:
To recapitulate and elaborate, the
Page 105 and 106:
Concluding comments on methodThe te
Page 107 and 108:
Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
Page 109 and 110:
Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
Page 111:
Produced by the Research Developmen
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