Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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etrospective method for seven-day forecasts for Mansfield and Corby, although the actualdifferences were (reliable but) small.Table 2.22: Average number of crimes correctly identified per forecast for cumulativemethods (N=22)Retrospective Promap (specific) Promap (classic)2 days 7 days 2 days 7 days 2 days 7 daysWellingborough 3.26 10.96 4.32* 15.68* 4.17* 14.7*Mansfield 3.32 10.18 3.59 11.05* 3.46 10.73*Corby 0.68 3.32 0.90 3.59 0.68 3.55+‘A’ Division 3.32 11.36 4.77* 15.77* 5.55* 19.68** Significantly better than retrospective method (p
Table 2.24: Average number of crimes correctly identified per forecast for single pointmethods (N=22)Retrospective Promap (specific) Promap (classic)2 days 7 days 2 days 7 days 2 days 7 daysWellingborough 3.26 10.96 3.46* 13.00* 3.73* 13.54*Mansfield 3.32 10.18 2.68 8.23 3.32 9.50Corby 0.68 3.27 0.55 2.81 0.91+ 3.46‘A’ Division 3.32 11.36 4.72* 15.68* 5.32* 19.00** Significantly better than retrospective method (p
Page 2 and 3: 1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIM
Page 4 and 5: ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive s
Page 6 and 7: 2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
Page 8 and 9: Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
Page 10 and 11: those that involved collaboration w
Page 12 and 13: 1. IntroductionThis report represen
Page 14 and 15: optimally calibrated system, the go
Page 16 and 17: e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
Page 18 and 19: Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
Page 20 and 21: Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 22 and 23: Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
Page 24 and 25: Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 26 and 27: Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
Page 28 and 29: The results for area 5 again demons
Page 30 and 31: The bandwidth used to generate the
Page 32: a densely populated urban area this
Page 37 and 38: Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
Page 39 and 40: 3. Tactical options and selecting a
Page 41 and 42: Selecting a pilot siteThe decision
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
Page 45 and 46: Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
Page 47 and 48: Other potential tactical optionsAt
Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
Page 53 and 54: unfortunately, implementation or us
Page 55 and 56: any tactical options were employed
Page 57 and 58: the end of the pilot. In addition t
Page 59 and 60: Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
Page 61 and 62: the busy schedule of the new Divisi
Page 63 and 64: Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily
Page 65 and 66: Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
Page 67 and 68: permitted, up to four plain clothed
Page 69 and 70: observation made by those who used
Page 71 and 72: A simple time-series analysis (see
Page 73 and 74: Two approaches were used to compute
Page 75 and 76: Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
Page 77 and 78: Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
Page 79 and 80: With respect to implementation real
Page 81 and 82: ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
Page 83 and 84:
Johnson, S.D., Summers, L., and Pea
Page 85 and 86:
Appendix 1. The information technol
Page 87 and 88:
Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
Page 89 and 90:
Recommendations that may be realise
Page 91 and 92:
Section 1: knowledge and understand
Page 93 and 94:
Extra Comments (please outline any
Page 95 and 96:
In relation to the evaluation of in
Page 97 and 98:
Time-series analysisFor the purpose
Page 99 and 100:
Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial
Page 101 and 102:
Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
Page 103 and 104:
To recapitulate and elaborate, the
Page 105 and 106:
Concluding comments on methodThe te
Page 107 and 108:
Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
Page 109 and 110:
Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
Page 111:
Produced by the Research Developmen
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Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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