Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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Appendix 1. The information technology nexusMuch of this report concentrates on the principles of prospective mapping and police officers’reactions to it. If systems such as Promap are to become commonplace in an operational policingcontext, of equal importance is the practicality of producing the maps on a routine basis.The integration of novel information technology based analysis tools into an existing IT framework canproduce several challenges. In this section, possible methods of delivering them are discussed, somekey issues and problems associated with the development and integration of them identified, and anumber of solutions (both short- and long-term) to these suggested.In order to produce prospective maps, as a minimum crime data relating to the timing and location ofprevious events are required and must be extracted from existing crime recording systems. Thismeans that the ability to retrieve, process and analyse these data in a timely fashion is of keyimportance to the approach.In the main, as any new software must in effect be grafted onto force IT systems, there are two mainapproaches to implementing new analytic software products.1. New software may be integrated into existing systems. This solution would mean that datacould be directly accessed by the new software from an internal structure/datawarehouse, process it and produce output within existing analysis systems. This option ispresented schematically as Figure A1.1. It would require the least intervention on the partof the analyst and is the preferred option. However, there is typically a reluctance from ITstaff regarding this approach. The reason for this is simple. Where software is notproperly tested, it is possible that the computer program code could have a detrimentalaffect on existing systems, slowing them down or much worse.Consequently, this option requires considerably more effort in terms of systemdevelopment and testing. A programme of formal specification would be required. At leastthree stages are desirable. Program validation would ensure that the software providedsufficient functionality to serve its purpose. Program verification on the other hand wouldbe required to check that the software is implemented correctly. Additionally, an extensivetesting regime would be needed to demonstrate that the system would not have anyunwanted side effects on other elements of the IT infrastructure. For even a relativelyinexperienced programmer the latter is unlikely but testing is an important step.In addition, it is worth noting that any direct integration of a new application into anexisting information technology infrastructure is understandably a complex process. Froma software implementation perspective the majority of police forces currently implementunique data infrastructures. This means that all attempts at integration must be tailored tointerface with specific systems, Subsequently successful products are not immediatelytransferable between systems. This issue is currently being addressed to some extent bythe IMPACT programme, which aims: “To deliver an effective integrated national, regionaland local information-sharing and intelligence capability, which will improve the ability ofthe police and partner agencies to proactively use information for intelligence purposes toprevent crime, bring offenders to justice, safeguard children and vulnerable people andfurther professionalise the investigation process”.74
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1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIM
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ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive s
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2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
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Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
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those that involved collaboration w
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1. IntroductionThis report represen
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optimally calibrated system, the go
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e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
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Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
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Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
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Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
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Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
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Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
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The results for area 5 again demons
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The bandwidth used to generate the
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a densely populated urban area this
Page 35 and 36: Table 2.24: Average number of crime
Page 37 and 38: Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
Page 39 and 40: 3. Tactical options and selecting a
Page 41 and 42: Selecting a pilot siteThe decision
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
Page 45 and 46: Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
Page 47 and 48: Other potential tactical optionsAt
Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
Page 53 and 54: unfortunately, implementation or us
Page 55 and 56: any tactical options were employed
Page 57 and 58: the end of the pilot. In addition t
Page 59 and 60: Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
Page 61 and 62: the busy schedule of the new Divisi
Page 63 and 64: Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily
Page 65 and 66: Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
Page 67 and 68: permitted, up to four plain clothed
Page 69 and 70: observation made by those who used
Page 71 and 72: A simple time-series analysis (see
Page 73 and 74: Two approaches were used to compute
Page 75 and 76: Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
Page 77 and 78: Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
Page 79 and 80: With respect to implementation real
Page 81 and 82: ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
Page 83: Johnson, S.D., Summers, L., and Pea
Page 87 and 88: Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
Page 89 and 90: Recommendations that may be realise
Page 91 and 92: Section 1: knowledge and understand
Page 93 and 94: Extra Comments (please outline any
Page 95 and 96: In relation to the evaluation of in
Page 97 and 98: Time-series analysisFor the purpose
Page 99 and 100: Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial
Page 101 and 102: Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
Page 103 and 104: To recapitulate and elaborate, the
Page 105 and 106: Concluding comments on methodThe te
Page 107 and 108: Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
Page 109 and 110: Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
Page 111: Produced by the Research Developmen
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