Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

The implication of the results is that the generation of three daily forecasts, one for eachpolice shift, should improve the efficiency of resources deployed. Thus, as a final change tothe system, the predictive model was developed so that it produced different maps for thedifferent shifts, weighting more heavily those events that occurred during the same shift asthat for which the prediction was made.ConclusionThe final Promap system was considerably more accurate than extant methods. The systemwas improved ‘on the hoof’ in a number of ways, partly in response to requests from thepolice Command Team. Risking tedious repetition, it must be stressed that the role ofpredictive mapping in crime reduction is emergent. It provides a tool which may modify policeand Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships’ (CDRPs’) practice. There may be falsestarts and initiatives that turn out to be ill-founded. A parallel may be made with cervicalscreening and PSA (Prostate Specific Antigen) testing for cervical and prostate cancerrespectively. Neither of these approaches affords perfect prediction, but both allow areconsideration of risk assessment and treatment prioritisation for the conditions concerned.The argument is that crime reduction is enabled by a more precise specification of risk, butany benefits are contingent upon the shaping of the craft of policing to take maximumadvantage of improved prediction.To give the reader an idea of what the GUI looked like, an example screen image is shown asFigure 4.2. As can be seen, the GUI was quite simple but provided some flexibility so that theanalysts could generate different kinds of maps. Appendix 4 provides further detail of thesoftware interface and illustrates how simple it is to use.Figure 4.2: An example image of the final GUI© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Derbyshire Constabulary 100021015.In the Chapters that follow, an account is given of the field trial of the system. Chapter fivediscusses what the police did and problems encountered. To anticipate the findings,41