Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

Figure 6.4: Changes in the proportion of burglaries committed during the daytime over time (forevents for which the interval between the earliest and latest reporting times was less than 8 hours)0.700.60Proportion of all burglaries0.500.400.300.200.10BeforeDuringLinear (Before)0.00MonthDec-05Aug-05Apr-05Apr-03Dec-02Aug-02Apr-02Dec-01Aug-01Apr-01Dec-04Aug-04Apr-04Dec-03Aug-03Considering the changes in the comparison area, as shown in Figure 6.5 there was also observed areduction in the proportion of burglaries committed during the evening, although the change over timewas not as distinct (means = 0.24 and 0.17, SDs = 0.11 and 0.05, N=52 and 7, respectively) as for thepilot area and in the comparison area the trend was more similar to the historic trend, particularly ifone takes account of the outlying observation in July.As a further analysis, and to take account of seasonality, the proportion of burglaries committed duringthe evening for the pilot interval (August 2004 to February 2005) and for the same period for the yearbefore (August 2003 to February 2004) were compared for both pilot and comparison areas. For thepilot area the proportion was lower during implementation (mean=0.11, SD=0.04, N=7) than for thesame period the year before (mean=0.17, SD=0.07, N=7), a difference which achieved statisticalsignificance (z=2.03, p