Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIMESCIENCEProspective crime mapping in operationalcontextFinal reportShane D JohnsonDaniel J BirksLindsay McLaughlinKate J BowersKen PeaseUCL, Jill Dando Institute of Crime ScienceSecond Floor, Brooke House2-16 Torrington Place, LondonWC1E 7HN Tel. (020) 7679 0809Fax. (020) 7679 0828Email: shane.johnson@ucl.ac.ukOnline Report 19/07
AcknowledgementsThe authors are grateful to a number of people for their help and advice throughout thisproject. These include but are not limited to Assistant Chief Constable John Wright, DCI RickGooch and other members of the Command Team, Derbyshire ‘A’ Division. IntelligenceAnalysts Deborah Rimell and Bill Wallage, PC Hayley Vincent for filling out the tactical optionslog; Sergeant Kevin Pellatt and David Lynam (partnership analyst) from Safer DerbyshireResearch and Information Team who provided the data analysed; Inspector Matt Thompson‘A’ Division Community Safety; All ‘A’ Division front-line officers and Sergeants; Sgt AlanBeeson for driving Lindsay around to all the sections on the day of the surveys; SteveBrookes and Phil Taylor from Government Office for the East Midlands; and, MichaelWilkinson, Lindsey Poole, Mark Bangs, Steve Wilkes and Niall Hamilton-Smith from the HomeOffice. We would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments.i
Page 4 and 5: ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive s
Page 6 and 7: 2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
Page 8 and 9: Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
Page 10 and 11: those that involved collaboration w
Page 12 and 13: 1. IntroductionThis report represen
Page 14 and 15: optimally calibrated system, the go
Page 16 and 17: e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
Page 18 and 19: Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
Page 20 and 21: Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 22 and 23: Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
Page 24 and 25: Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 26 and 27: Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
Page 28 and 29: The results for area 5 again demons
Page 30 and 31: The bandwidth used to generate the
Page 32: a densely populated urban area this
Page 35 and 36: Table 2.24: Average number of crime
Page 37 and 38: Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
Page 39 and 40: 3. Tactical options and selecting a
Page 41 and 42: Selecting a pilot siteThe decision
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
Page 45 and 46: Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
Page 47 and 48: Other potential tactical optionsAt
Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
Page 53 and 54:
unfortunately, implementation or us
Page 55 and 56:
any tactical options were employed
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the end of the pilot. In addition t
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Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
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the busy schedule of the new Divisi
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Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily
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Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
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permitted, up to four plain clothed
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observation made by those who used
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A simple time-series analysis (see
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Two approaches were used to compute
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Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
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Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
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With respect to implementation real
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ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
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Johnson, S.D., Summers, L., and Pea
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Appendix 1. The information technol
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Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
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Recommendations that may be realise
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Section 1: knowledge and understand
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Extra Comments (please outline any
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In relation to the evaluation of in
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Time-series analysisFor the purpose
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Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial
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Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
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To recapitulate and elaborate, the
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Concluding comments on methodThe te
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Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
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Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
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Produced by the Research Developmen
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