Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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Ericsson, U. (1995) Straight from the Horse’s Mouth. Forensic Update, 43, 23-25.Everson, S. and Pease, K. (2001) ‘Crime Against the Same Person and Place: Detection,Opportunity and Offender Targeting’. In Crime Prevention Studies Volume 12: Repeat Victimisation,G. Farrell and K. Pease (Eds.) New York: Criminal Justice Press.Everson, S. (2003) ‘Repeat Victimisation and Prolific Offending: Chance or Choice?’ InternationalJournal of Police Science & Management, 5(3),180-194.Farrell, G. (2005) ‘Progress and Prospects in the Prevention of Repeat Victimization’. In theHandbook of Crime Prevention and Community Safety, N. Tilley (Ed.). Cullompton: Willan.Farrell, G. and Pease, K. (1994) ‘Crime Seasonality: Domestic Disputes and Residential Burglary inMerseyside 1988-90’. British Journal of Criminology 34, 487-497.Farrell, G., Phillips, C and Pease. K. (1995) ’Like Taking Candy: Why does repeat victimizationoccur?’ British Journal of Criminology, 35, 3, 384-399.Farrell, G., Chenery, S. and Pease, K. (1998) Consolidating Police Crackdowns: Findings from anAnti-Burglary Project. Police Research Series Paper 113. London: Home Office.Farrington, D.F, and Welsh, B.C. (2006) ‘How Important is “Regression To The Mean” in Area-BasedCrime Prevention Research’. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 8, 50-60.Forrester, D., Frenz, S, O’Connell, M. and Pease, K. (1990) The Kirkhold Burglary PreventionProject: Phase II. Crime Prevention Unit, Paper 23. London: Home Office.Forrester, D., Chatterton, M., and Pease, K. (1988) The Kirkholt Burglary Prevention Project,Rochdale. Crime Prevention Unit Paper 13. London: Home Office.Gill, M. and Spriggs, A. (2005) Assessing the impact of CCTV. Home Office Research Study No.292. London: Home Office.Gill, P. and Mathews, R. (1994) ’Robbers on robbery: offenders perspectives’. In Crime at Work, M.Gill (Ed.). Leicester: Perpetuity Press.Gill, M, Rose, A. and Collins, K. (2005) A good practice guide for the implementation of redeployableCCTV. Home Office Online Report No.16. London: Home Office.Johnson, S.D., and Bowers, K.J. (2003) ‘Opportunity is in the eye of the beholder: The role ofpublicity in crime prevention’. Criminology and Public Policy,2(3), 201-228.Johnson, S.D., Bowers, K., and Hirschfield, A. (1997) ‘New Insights into the Spatial and TemporalDistribution of Repeat Victimisation’. The British Journal of Criminology, 37(2), 224-244.Johnson, S.D., Bernasco, W., Bowers, K.J., Elffers, H., Ratcliffe, J., Rengert, G. and Townsley,M.T. (2006) Space Time Patterns of Risk: A Cross National Assessment of Residential BurglaryVictimization. Submitted.Johnson, S.D. and Bowers, K.J. (2004) The burglary as clue to the future: the beginnings ofprospective hot-spotting. European Journal of Criminology, 1(2), 237-255.Johnson, S.D. and Bowers, K.J. (2004) ‘The stability of space-time clusters of burglary’. The BritishJournal of Criminology, 44(1), 55-65.Johnson, S.D., Bowers, K. and Pease, K. (2005) ‘Predicting the Future or Summarising the Past?’Crime Mapping as Anticipation. In Crime Science: New Approaches to Preventing and DetectingCrime, M. Smith and N. Tilley (Eds.) 145-163.71
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1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIM
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ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive s
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2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
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Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
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those that involved collaboration w
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1. IntroductionThis report represen
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optimally calibrated system, the go
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e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
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Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
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Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
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Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
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Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
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Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
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The results for area 5 again demons
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The bandwidth used to generate the
Page 32: a densely populated urban area this
Page 35 and 36: Table 2.24: Average number of crime
Page 37 and 38: Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
Page 39 and 40: 3. Tactical options and selecting a
Page 41 and 42: Selecting a pilot siteThe decision
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
Page 45 and 46: Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
Page 47 and 48: Other potential tactical optionsAt
Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
Page 53 and 54: unfortunately, implementation or us
Page 55 and 56: any tactical options were employed
Page 57 and 58: the end of the pilot. In addition t
Page 59 and 60: Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
Page 61 and 62: the busy schedule of the new Divisi
Page 63 and 64: Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily
Page 65 and 66: Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
Page 67 and 68: permitted, up to four plain clothed
Page 69 and 70: observation made by those who used
Page 71 and 72: A simple time-series analysis (see
Page 73 and 74: Two approaches were used to compute
Page 75 and 76: Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
Page 77 and 78: Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
Page 79 and 80: With respect to implementation real
Page 81: ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
Page 85 and 86: Appendix 1. The information technol
Page 87 and 88: Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
Page 89 and 90: Recommendations that may be realise
Page 91 and 92: Section 1: knowledge and understand
Page 93 and 94: Extra Comments (please outline any
Page 95 and 96: In relation to the evaluation of in
Page 97 and 98: Time-series analysisFor the purpose
Page 99 and 100: Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial
Page 101 and 102: Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
Page 103 and 104: To recapitulate and elaborate, the
Page 105 and 106: Concluding comments on methodThe te
Page 107 and 108: Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
Page 109 and 110: Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
Page 111: Produced by the Research Developmen
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