Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for Ashfield (values in bold are statistically significantaccording to the residual scores (not shown), N=1012)WEEKS1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12100 1.61 1.44 1.28 1.22 1.06 1.02 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97200 1.46 1.29 1.25 1.18 1.08 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.98 1.01 0.94 0.93300 1.43 1.39 1.23 1.17 1.08 1.05 0.99 0.98 0.94 0.97 0.95 1.00400 1.20 1.16 1.15 1.12 1.08 1.06 1.00 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.98500 1.13 1.10 1.05 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.97 1.01 1.02 0.96 0.97 0.96600 1.20 1.16 1.13 1.09 1.07 1.05 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05700 1.35 1.20 1.16 1.13 1.06 1.02 1.01 0.96 0.96 0.99 1.01 1.04800 1.06 1.03 1.04 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 1.01 1.02 1.05900 0.96 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.91 0.90 0.94 0.96 1.00 1.08 1.121000 0.93 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.03 1.03 1.06 1.03 1.06Corby Police SectorFor Corby, the most recent data available at the time of analysis covered the period January-December 2003. There were only 429 burglaries for this period in Corby. The results, shownas Tables 2.11 and 2.12, are again very consistent. Unlike the above analyses, while moreburglaries occur within 100m and one month of each other than would be expected on thebasis of chance, the difference is not statistically reliable. However, this may be due to thelow sample size (e.g. the expected cell count for that cell was five times lower than the samecell for Mansfield), particularly for that cell, rather than reflecting an irregularity in the patternof the communicability of risk. As with the analyses for Mansfield the analyses suggest thatthe risk of burglary communicates over a distance of up to 700m and endures for one month,although houses within 401-500m appear not to be at significantly heightened risk.Table 2.11: Knox ratios for Corby (values in bold are statistically significant accordingto the residual scores (not shown), N=429)MONTHS1 2 3 4 5 6100 1.17 1.07 1.11 1.02 1.06 0.87200 1.20 0.99 1.22 1.02 0.89 0.96300 1.13 0.94 0.90 1.12 0.96 0.92400 1.22 1.01 1.02 1.05 1.10 0.96500 1.04 1.04 1.02 1.09 1.09 1.03600 1.11 1.08 1.11 1.02 1.02 1.02700 1.12 1.01 1.11 0.91 0.98 1.03800 1.02 1.06 1.07 0.98 1.13 1.06900 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.03 0.93 1.111000 1.10 0.91 1.09 1.03 1.06 1.06As with the results for Mansfield, the Monte-Carlo analysis suggests that around 20 per centmore burglaries occurred within 101-200m and one month of a burgled home. Alsoconsistent with the findings for Mansfield, the risk to houses within 401-500m of burgledproperties appears to be elevated yet non-significant.For completeness, an additional Knox analysis was conducted to examine the temporal trendin more detail. However, as this analysis generated a larger number of cells than the monthlyanalysis and there was such a low volume of crime for this area, the results were consideredunreliable and will not be discussed further. Because of the essential similarity of the data11