Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

the same time of day as each other was roughly equivalent to what would be expected on thebasis of chance. This likelihood remains stable irrespective of the number of days betweenevents. In contrast, the time of day at which near repeats (those within 100m for illustration)and repeats proper are committed appears to synchronise with antecedent events with anelevated consistency. This pattern was also evident for events that occurred slightly furtheraway (up to around 400m) for one week after an initial event (for clarity of presentation theseresults are not shown). Generally, the distance over which, and the extent to which,consistency was evident for burglary pairs resembled the pattern observed for thecommunication of risk in space and time alone. Thus, there was a pattern of distance decay -events that occurred closest to each other in space and time tended to be committed duringthe same time of day with higher likelihood. This would, therefore, suggest that the time ofday that an initial event is committed offers some additional predictive value beyond thedimensions (days elapsed and distance) from an earlier offence.Figure 4.1: Similarity in time of day for near-repeats and unrelated burglariesObserved/Expected Ratio2.001.901.801.701.601.501.401.301.201.101.000.900.800.700.600.500.400.300.200.100.00RV100m1000m7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91Days between eventsp