Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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explained by those in the control area, there was no additional temporal trend (upwards ordownwards) in the changes observed (ß=-0.01, ß(s.e)=0.01, t(51)=-1.14, p=0.26).Again, a corrolellogram confirmed that the data were serially correlated, conforming to an AR1 model,and thus this model was used to see if the reduction observed was coincident with the timing of thepilot. The results of the analysis confirmed that a significant amount of the variance in the weeklyburglary count in the Division was explained by serial autocorrelation (ß=0.74, ß(s.e)=0.04,t(245)=17.22, p
Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial distribution of risk following the introduction of the pilotIt is important to bear in mind that this is a purely visual and descriptive analysis. Moreover, thepatterns are relative and do not necessarily indicate where the risk of burglary was greatest, but justwhere it changed the most. Nevertheless, what Figure A3.1 does illustrate is that risk moves evenwhen considered over fairly lengthy intervals of time, such as seven months. This mobility of risk isone of the underpinning justifications of Promap.With respect to statistical significance, an analytic approach worthy of discussion has been developedby Ratcliffe (2005). The aim of this is to detect changes in the spatial placement of crime over timewithin a particular area, such as a BCU. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation, the spatial patternsobserved can be compared against the null hypothesis that any changes observed could haveoccurred on the basis of chance. Consequently, the test developed provides an inferential statisticaltest of the visual analysis presented in Figure A3.1.88
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1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIM
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ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive s
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2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
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Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
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those that involved collaboration w
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1. IntroductionThis report represen
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optimally calibrated system, the go
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e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
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Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
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Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
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Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
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Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
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Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
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The results for area 5 again demons
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The bandwidth used to generate the
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a densely populated urban area this
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Table 2.24: Average number of crime
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Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
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3. Tactical options and selecting a
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Selecting a pilot siteThe decision
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Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
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Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
Page 47 and 48: Other potential tactical optionsAt
Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
Page 53 and 54: unfortunately, implementation or us
Page 55 and 56: any tactical options were employed
Page 57 and 58: the end of the pilot. In addition t
Page 59 and 60: Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
Page 61 and 62: the busy schedule of the new Divisi
Page 63 and 64: Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily
Page 65 and 66: Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
Page 67 and 68: permitted, up to four plain clothed
Page 69 and 70: observation made by those who used
Page 71 and 72: A simple time-series analysis (see
Page 73 and 74: Two approaches were used to compute
Page 75 and 76: Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
Page 77 and 78: Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
Page 79 and 80: With respect to implementation real
Page 81 and 82: ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
Page 83 and 84: Johnson, S.D., Summers, L., and Pea
Page 85 and 86: Appendix 1. The information technol
Page 87 and 88: Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
Page 89 and 90: Recommendations that may be realise
Page 91 and 92: Section 1: knowledge and understand
Page 93 and 94: Extra Comments (please outline any
Page 95 and 96: In relation to the evaluation of in
Page 97: Time-series analysisFor the purpose
Page 101 and 102: Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
Page 103 and 104: To recapitulate and elaborate, the
Page 105 and 106: Concluding comments on methodThe te
Page 107 and 108: Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
Page 109 and 110: Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
Page 111: Produced by the Research Developmen
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