Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive summaryiv1. Introduction 1Background and past research 1Aims and objectives 32. Testing the generalisability of prospective mapping 4Is the risk of burglary communicable in the East Midlands? 6Predicting the future 183. Tactical options and selecting a pilot site 28Potential pilot sites 28A tactical options matrix for reducing burglary 304. System development and evolution 38Time of day consistency? 39Conclusion 415. Process evaluation 43Process evaluation methodology 43‘A’ Division, management and day-to-day running 44IT and dissemination 45Tactical delivery 52Summary 576. Changes in patterns of burglary 59Change in the time of day burglaries were committed 627. Conclusions 67References 70Appendices1 The information technology nexus 742 Prospective Mapping Survey 793 Detailed evaluation methodology 834 Promap graphical user interface and an illustration (step by step) of how thesystem is used 95List of tables2.1 Knox contingency table example 42.2 Knox ratios for Mansfield 72.3 Monte-Carlo results for Mansfield 72.4 Weekly Knox ratios for Mansfield 82.5 Knox ratios for Wellingborough 82.6 Monte-Carlo results for Wellingborough 92.7 Weekly Knox ratios for Wellingborough 9ii
2.8 Knox ratios for Ashfield 102.9 Monte-Carlo results for Ashfield 102.10 Weekly Knox ratios for Ashfield 112.11 Knox ratios for Corby 112.12 Monte-Carlo results for Corby 122.13 Knox ratios for ‘A’ Division 122.14 Monte-Carlo results for ‘A’ Division 132.15 Weekly Knox ratios for ‘A’ Division 132.16 Summary of the analyses concerned with the communicability of risk 142.17 Weekly Knox analysis for area 1 152.18 Weekly Knox analysis for area 2 162.19 Weekly Knox analysis for area 3 162.20 Weekly Knox analysis for area 4 162.21 Weekly Knox analysis for area 5 172.22 Average number of crimes correctly identified per forecast for cumulative methods232.23 Average percentage of crimes correctly identified per forecast 232.24 Average number of crimes correctly identified per forecast for single point methods242.25 Average percentage of crimes correctly identified per forecast 242.26 Predictive accuracy for analyses for which the same number of cells wereidentified by each method 253.1 Comparison of three potential pilot sites 293.2 Tactical options matrix 324.1 Accuracy of the prospective model including the opportunity surface 385.1 Number of times prospective maps were used in ‘A’ Division’s daily briefing 525.2 Sample characteristics 535.3 Number of respondents who had heard of prospective mapping, by section 545.4 Number of times maps were used for targeted police activity 545.5 Number of respondents who were either involved in or responsible foremploying operational tactics, by section 555.6 The interpretation and usefulness of prospective maps 566.1 Change in the volume of burglary and odds-ratio statistics 62A 3.1 Change in the volume of burglary and odds-ratio statistics 85List of figures2.1 The five policing areas in ‘A’ Division 152.2 Two-dimensional and three-dimensional hotspot lattices 192.3 Opportunity surface for ‘A’ Division 212.4 Differences in cells identified as being at the highest future risk byretrospective and prospective methods 25iii
Page 2 and 3: 1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIM
Page 6 and 7: 2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
Page 8 and 9: Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
Page 10 and 11: those that involved collaboration w
Page 12 and 13: 1. IntroductionThis report represen
Page 14 and 15: optimally calibrated system, the go
Page 16 and 17: e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
Page 18 and 19: Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
Page 20 and 21: Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 22 and 23: Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
Page 24 and 25: Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 26 and 27: Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
Page 28 and 29: The results for area 5 again demons
Page 30 and 31: The bandwidth used to generate the
Page 32: a densely populated urban area this
Page 35 and 36: Table 2.24: Average number of crime
Page 37 and 38: Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
Page 39 and 40: 3. Tactical options and selecting a
Page 41 and 42: Selecting a pilot siteThe decision
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
Page 45 and 46: Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
Page 47 and 48: Other potential tactical optionsAt
Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
Page 53 and 54: unfortunately, implementation or us
Page 55 and 56:
any tactical options were employed
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the end of the pilot. In addition t
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Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
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the busy schedule of the new Divisi
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Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily
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Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
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permitted, up to four plain clothed
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observation made by those who used
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A simple time-series analysis (see
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Two approaches were used to compute
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Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
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Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
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With respect to implementation real
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ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
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Johnson, S.D., Summers, L., and Pea
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Appendix 1. The information technol
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Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
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Recommendations that may be realise
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Section 1: knowledge and understand
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Extra Comments (please outline any
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In relation to the evaluation of in
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Time-series analysisFor the purpose
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Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial
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Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
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To recapitulate and elaborate, the
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Concluding comments on methodThe te
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Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
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Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
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Produced by the Research Developmen
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