Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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Table 3.1: Comparison of three potential pilot sitesKey QuestionsHow many burglariesoccur per year onaverage in recent years?What is the annualburglary rate per 1,000householdsWhat is the annualdetection rate?AreaCorby Wellingborough ‘A’ DivisionApprox 900* Approx 650+ Approx 18006.7** 9.9** 7.5***Approx 12%* Approx 10%+ Approx 13%Burglary a priority? Moderate Moderate HighIs there a targetedOperation Bustedburglary initiative in(Jan – Mar 2005)place?How quickly does dataget onto the crimerecording system?Operation Yarn(Feb 2005onwards)24 hrs-2 days 24 hrs-3 days 24 hrsHow many analysts arethere?2 2 2GIS software used? MapInfo MapInfo Blue8What kind of maps doanalysts produce andhow often are theyproduced?- retrospective pointmaps fortnightly- choropleth mapsevery 6 months- retrospectivepoint mapsfortnightly- choroplethmaps every 6months- retrospectivepoint mapsfortnightly- contour hotspotmaps every 6monthsHow often do key officersmeet to discussintelligence and tactics?Are there any waysintelligence isdisseminated to officersoutside of scheduledmeetings?How eager is the area toparticipate?- daily tasking- daily ‘gold’meeting- 2-week tacticaltasking and coordination- 6-monthstrategicassessment‘front page’internal website- daily tasking- 2-week tacticaltasking and coordination- monthly operationalperformance group- 6-month strategicassessmentNo- daily tasking- daily command- 2-week tacticaltasking and coordination- 6-monthstrategicassessmentNoModerately Moderately Extremely* This figure is for the whole of the Northern Area (2 Sectors), thus figures for Corby Sector itself would be lower+ This figure is for the whole of the Eastern Area (2 Sectors), thus figures for Wellingborough Sector itself would belower** Denominator derived from the 2001 Census*** This figure is based on figures from the 2003/2004 business plan29
Selecting a pilot siteThe decision as to which area in which to implement the pilot was taken by a steering groupwhich included members of the Home Office, Government Office for the East Midlands andresearchers from the UCL Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science. The main reasons forselecting the site chosen, ‘A’ Division, were that the Command Team expressed a strongdesire to participate in the pilot, they were especially concerned with the residential burglaryproblem in their Division, and they had been experiencing a stable volume of burglary prior tothe pilot.A tactical options matrix for reducing burglaryInnovations require new ways of thinking. Early software often sought to mimic electronicallywhat had previously been done manually. Only with time was the potential to do things in newways realised. One poignant instance of how innovation requires rethinking comes with theintroduction of the battle tank. Its qualified success upon introduction at the Battle of Cambraiderived from the failure to modify infantry movements to capitalise on the advantages createdby the tank, with long-term unhappy consequences for military tactics (see Dixon 1976). Theworst fate for Promap (short of neglect) would be implementation without rethinking policingtactics.As noted above, prior to the start of the pilot a literature review was undertaken to summarisethe available literature on tactical options used in the reduction of burglary, so that those thatmight be used in response to the maps could be identified. However, by outlining theapparent efficacy of extant burglary reduction tactics, in a sense one falls into the mode ofthought which Promap is intended to make obsolete. Improving one’s capacity to predictthereby changes the terrain. It may mean that hitherto untried or apparently unsuccessfulapproaches become potentially effective. For example, the potential of patrolling as a crimereductive measure has generally been considered low, but when directed by better prediction,this may change. At the risk of appearing to oversell Promap, it may change the ground rulesfor crime reduction. For this reason, it was strongly emphasised that the learning processinvolved in field testing may involve rethinking some of what is set out below.There is no single menu of burglary reductive options that is guaranteed to work in allcircumstances, rather measures need to be tailored according to the specific opportunitiesand situations apparent in an area. One of the main reasons why replications of interventionsoften fail is because the knowledge and understanding of the specific contexts andmechanisms for an intervention are lacking (Tilley, 1993). Sometimes sheer lack of effortmakes for implementation failure. Something that has been successful in one area or situationwill not automatically be successful in others. As such, it must be recognised that whichevertactical options are selected to be used with the predictive mapping system, they may need tobe specifically tailored for the purpose of reducing residential burglary in the chosen pilotarea. Moreover, the most effective burglary prevention strategies involve a combination ofcomplementary responses (Lamm Weisel, 2002), and hence consideration of how a variety ofdifferent interventions might interact, and/or complement the system should be considered.To inform this element of the project, a review of the available literature was conducted and ispresented here as a Tactical Option Matrix in Table 3.2. The matrix can be broken down intofive main component parts: the type of intervention, a summary of the evidence of itseffectiveness, cost (financial and latency of implementation), the geographical coverage of themeasures, and the potential partners who may be involved in the implementation of thatintervention. The following sections elaborate upon and clarify the content of these fiveelements of the matrix.Types of intervention and evidence of effectivenessThe list is not exhaustive by any means, however, the most commonly used crime preventionmeasures for reducing residential burglary are discussed. Over the last two decades therehas been a plethora of research on the effectiveness of various types of crime preventionmeasures and some of the key studies are mentioned here. While the authors are cognisant30
Page 2 and 3: 1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIM
Page 4 and 5: ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive s
Page 6 and 7: 2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
Page 8 and 9: Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
Page 10 and 11: those that involved collaboration w
Page 12 and 13: 1. IntroductionThis report represen
Page 14 and 15: optimally calibrated system, the go
Page 16 and 17: e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
Page 18 and 19: Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
Page 20 and 21: Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 22 and 23: Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
Page 24 and 25: Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 26 and 27: Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
Page 28 and 29: The results for area 5 again demons
Page 30 and 31: The bandwidth used to generate the
Page 32: a densely populated urban area this
Page 35 and 36: Table 2.24: Average number of crime
Page 37 and 38: Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
Page 39: 3. Tactical options and selecting a
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
Page 45 and 46: Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
Page 47 and 48: Other potential tactical optionsAt
Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
Page 53 and 54: unfortunately, implementation or us
Page 55 and 56: any tactical options were employed
Page 57 and 58: the end of the pilot. In addition t
Page 59 and 60: Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
Page 61 and 62: the busy schedule of the new Divisi
Page 63 and 64: Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily
Page 65 and 66: Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
Page 67 and 68: permitted, up to four plain clothed
Page 69 and 70: observation made by those who used
Page 71 and 72: A simple time-series analysis (see
Page 73 and 74: Two approaches were used to compute
Page 75 and 76: Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
Page 77 and 78: Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
Page 79 and 80: With respect to implementation real
Page 81 and 82: ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
Page 83 and 84: Johnson, S.D., Summers, L., and Pea
Page 85 and 86: Appendix 1. The information technol
Page 87 and 88: Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
Page 89 and 90: Recommendations that may be realise
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Section 1: knowledge and understand
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Extra Comments (please outline any
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In relation to the evaluation of in
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Time-series analysisFor the purpose
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Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial
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Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
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To recapitulate and elaborate, the
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Concluding comments on methodThe te
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Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
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Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
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Produced by the Research Developmen
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Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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