Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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Figure 5.3: Timeline for Prospective Mapping Pilot in ‘A’ Division (August 2005 – March 2006)Mid-End Aug• Several of the Command Teammembers on leave in August15 Aug• Official start date5 Oct• Maps stopped being produced 5 times/wk (M-F) and wereproduced 3 times/wk (M, W & F)End Aug• DivisionalCommander JohnWright left ‘A’Division26 Oct• Evaluation visit #1• Meeting to inform new Divisional Commanderof project1 Nov• Analyst interviews #123 Dec• Laptops collectedby Alfreton andBelper (LIOsshown how to usePromap)20 Feb – 3 Mar• A Researcher from the Home Officeinterviewed four Section Sergeants (all butIlkeston)8, 9 Mar• Analyst interview #3 (Deborah Rimell)• Community safety team (90 packs)18 Jan• Evaluation visit #2• Analyst interviews #220 Mar• Community Safety Team (45 packs)28 Feb• Official end date of pilotAug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-0617 Aug• Retrospectivepoints shown onmaps28 Oct• Retrospectivepoints nolonger shownon maps14 Nov• Maps produced 2times/wk Mon & Thurs4 Nov Consensus by the steering group thatmaps will now be produced 2 times/wk(Mon and Thurs)51End Jan• Laptopscollected byLong Eaton,Ripley &Ilkeston19 and 23 Jan• Community Safety Team proactive patrol,handing out door-to-door info packs (70and 35 packs handed out)1, 2 Mar• Evaluation visit #3• Analyst interview #3 (Bill Wallage)• Promap survey (57 officers)• Community Safety Team (100 packs)
Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily briefing (9:15am)As described above, prospective maps were shown and discussed at the daily briefingmeetings if the Command Team felt they would be a valuable addition to the meeting. Ifburglary numbers had been sufficiently low for the past few days, then the maps were usuallynot shown. Table 5.1 shows the number of times that prospective maps were used in the dailybriefing meetings from initial implementation to the end of the evaluation period. Numbersdecreased dramatically towards the latter months because burglary numbers were falling soconsiderably, and Divisional priority had been shifted to dealing with auto-crime which roseover the same period.Table 5.1: Number of times prospective maps were used in ‘A’ Division’s daily briefingNumber of times prospectivemaps were used in dailybriefingsAUG 05 6SEP 05 8OCT 05 8NOV 05 4DEC 05 1JAN 06 2FEB 06 1Total 30According to the tactical logs completed by the Command Team, of the 30 times prospectivemaps were used in daily briefings, tactics were employed as a result of the maps 27 timesacross the Division. The most common tactics employed in response to the maps were footpatrols, drive-through patrols in hotspot areas and the targeting of known offenders believedto operate in or nearby the areas identified.Section front line responseOn 2 March 2006 a survey was conducted with 57 officers across all sections to assess theirlevel of knowledge and understanding of Promap as well as to identify any factors that mayhave either facilitated or impeded implementation. A copy of the questionnaire used isprovided as Appendix 2. Table 5.2 provides a breakdown of the sample of officers surveyedacross the Division.52
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1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIM
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ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive s
Page 6 and 7:
2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
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Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
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those that involved collaboration w
Page 12 and 13: 1. IntroductionThis report represen
Page 14 and 15: optimally calibrated system, the go
Page 16 and 17: e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
Page 18 and 19: Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
Page 20 and 21: Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 22 and 23: Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
Page 24 and 25: Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
Page 26 and 27: Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
Page 28 and 29: The results for area 5 again demons
Page 30 and 31: The bandwidth used to generate the
Page 32: a densely populated urban area this
Page 35 and 36: Table 2.24: Average number of crime
Page 37 and 38: Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
Page 39 and 40: 3. Tactical options and selecting a
Page 41 and 42: Selecting a pilot siteThe decision
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
Page 45 and 46: Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
Page 47 and 48: Other potential tactical optionsAt
Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
Page 53 and 54: unfortunately, implementation or us
Page 55 and 56: any tactical options were employed
Page 57 and 58: the end of the pilot. In addition t
Page 59 and 60: Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
Page 61: the busy schedule of the new Divisi
Page 65 and 66: Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
Page 67 and 68: permitted, up to four plain clothed
Page 69 and 70: observation made by those who used
Page 71 and 72: A simple time-series analysis (see
Page 73 and 74: Two approaches were used to compute
Page 75 and 76: Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
Page 77 and 78: Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
Page 79 and 80: With respect to implementation real
Page 81 and 82: ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
Page 83 and 84: Johnson, S.D., Summers, L., and Pea
Page 85 and 86: Appendix 1. The information technol
Page 87 and 88: Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
Page 89 and 90: Recommendations that may be realise
Page 91 and 92: Section 1: knowledge and understand
Page 93 and 94: Extra Comments (please outline any
Page 95 and 96: In relation to the evaluation of in
Page 97 and 98: Time-series analysisFor the purpose
Page 99 and 100: Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial
Page 101 and 102: Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
Page 103 and 104: To recapitulate and elaborate, the
Page 105 and 106: Concluding comments on methodThe te
Page 107 and 108: Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
Page 109 and 110: Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
Page 111: Produced by the Research Developmen
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Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

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