In addition to the questions discussed above, survey respondents were asked two openendedquestions to canvass any thoughts not captured by the closed questions asked. Firstly,they were asked to outl<strong>in</strong>e any extra comments that they might have about the usefulness ofthe maps and how they might be improved. Secondly, respondents were asked to outl<strong>in</strong>eextra comments about their knowledge and understand<strong>in</strong>g of prospective maps and anytactical options that they had employed. To be frank, on the basis of experience the authorshad expected negative feedback <strong>in</strong> response to these questions. Instead, few chose torespond. Of those that did, 27.5 per cent (11) commented on how the maps could beimproved, for example three suggested that:“the colour of the hotspots should be red not blue”;one suggested that:“the maps are too simplistic and should show MO, po<strong>in</strong>t of entry, class etc.”Perhaps surpris<strong>in</strong>gly only two op<strong>in</strong>ed that:“the maps don’t tell me anyth<strong>in</strong>g that I did not already know”.In terms of extra comments about police officers’ knowledge and understand<strong>in</strong>g of Promap,only four made comments, with one ask<strong>in</strong>g“how accurate are the maps?” and another suggest<strong>in</strong>g that“the maps are good for support<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>formation for patrol strategies”.Although the official end-date of the pilot was the end of February 2006, the maps are stillbe<strong>in</strong>g produced on a biweekly basis to <strong>in</strong>form tactical delivery. Moreover, the CommandTeam have decided to use the system more frequently if the rate of burglary <strong>in</strong>creases andthe priority returns to this type of <strong>crime</strong>.SummaryAs already discussed, dur<strong>in</strong>g the fist two to three months of the pilot, rather than us<strong>in</strong>g thepredictive capability of the system developed, p<strong>in</strong> maps show<strong>in</strong>g the locations of recent <strong>crime</strong>patterns were used. This was unfortunate as it was <strong>in</strong> conflict with what Promap wasdesigned to achieve - accurate predictions of the future locations of burglaries for those as yetunvictimised (as well as repeat victims).Despite this and some <strong>in</strong>itial negativity towards the approach, there now seems to be amoderate to high level of acceptance of the maps and the Division has embraced the systemas a useful tool. Unfortunately, dur<strong>in</strong>g the pilot period there was a substantial <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> theftfrom vehicles across the Division (and elsewhere <strong>in</strong> Derbyshire) <strong>in</strong> October which wasco<strong>in</strong>cident with a reduction <strong>in</strong> burglary. Consequently, there was a shift <strong>in</strong> polic<strong>in</strong>g priority atthis time towards vehicle <strong>crime</strong> across the Division. The problem with this <strong>in</strong> terms of theevaluation was that it meant that less time was focused on burglary, and the application of thePromap system. In short, this precludes a fair evaluation of the impact on <strong>crime</strong> of Promap.Nevertheless, given that this is the first attempt to implement such a system <strong>in</strong> the UK, it is anon-trivial f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g to be able to say that feedback from those us<strong>in</strong>g the system has been onthe whole very positive. In fact, most of those <strong>in</strong>terviewed, formally or otherwise, havesuggested that should burglary <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> the future they would use the system to tackle theproblem, which <strong>in</strong> itself illustrates the utility of the system as perceived by those who wereexposed to it. In l<strong>in</strong>e with this observation, despite the fact that the pilot has come to an endand that burglary cont<strong>in</strong>ues to rema<strong>in</strong> low with<strong>in</strong> the Division, at present the maps are stillgenerated every two weeks to <strong>in</strong>form the task<strong>in</strong>g and co-ord<strong>in</strong>ation meet<strong>in</strong>gs. A further57
observation made by those who used the system was that when used it helped to focus theirattention on the problem and how they might reduce it.As a further testament to police officer acceptance of the usefulness of the system, a numberasked if it could be used to predict <strong>in</strong>cidents of vehicle <strong>crime</strong>. S<strong>in</strong>ce complet<strong>in</strong>g the pilot, it hasbeen shown (Johnson et al., 2006) that patterns of theft from motor vehicle (TFMV) conformto the same spatial and temporal patterns as burglary and hence the answer to this questionis likely to be yes. Thus, an anticipated future development of the system would be to facilitatepredictions of TFMV also.Thus, from the perspective of the evaluation, the pilot served to demonstrate police officeracceptance of, and confidence <strong>in</strong>, the system, and to show that it could be used <strong>in</strong> an<strong>operational</strong> sett<strong>in</strong>g without disrupt<strong>in</strong>g other activity. Important lessons were learned <strong>in</strong> relationto the dissem<strong>in</strong>ation of the maps. Initially, it was thought that the analysts could generate anddistribute the maps, with Section Sergeants hav<strong>in</strong>g only to look at the output. However, it wassoon felt that the sections would benefit from be<strong>in</strong>g able to <strong>in</strong>terrogate and navigate the mapsthemselves, thereby allow<strong>in</strong>g them to ga<strong>in</strong> a more detailed picture of the problem. Thesolution to this problem was straightforward, but for a variety of logistical reasonsimplementation of it occurred too late <strong>in</strong> the evaluation period to have any potential impact on<strong>crime</strong>.58
- Page 2 and 3:
1. UCL JILL DANDO INSTITUTE OF CRIM
- Page 4 and 5:
ContentsAcknowledgementsExecutive s
- Page 6 and 7:
2.5 Illustration of a simple neares
- Page 8 and 9:
Project outcomesPatterns of burglar
- Page 10 and 11:
those that involved collaboration w
- Page 12 and 13:
1. IntroductionThis report represen
- Page 14 and 15:
optimally calibrated system, the go
- Page 16 and 17:
e ij = n .j x n i.nWhere, e ij is t
- Page 18 and 19: Table 2.2: Knox ratios for Mansfiel
- Page 20 and 21: Table 2.6: Monte-Carlo results for
- Page 22 and 23: Table 2.10: Weekly Knox ratios for
- Page 24 and 25: Table 2.14: Monte-Carlo results for
- Page 26 and 27: Figure 2.1: The five policing areas
- Page 28 and 29: The results for area 5 again demons
- Page 30 and 31: The bandwidth used to generate the
- Page 32: a densely populated urban area this
- Page 35 and 36: Table 2.24: Average number of crime
- Page 37 and 38: Patrolling efficiencyAs discussed e
- Page 39 and 40: 3. Tactical options and selecting a
- Page 41 and 42: Selecting a pilot siteThe decision
- Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2: Tactical options matrixT
- Page 45 and 46: Type ofinterventionStudyUse ofintel
- Page 47 and 48: Other potential tactical optionsAt
- Page 49 and 50: 4. System development and evolution
- Page 51 and 52: the same time of day as each other
- Page 53 and 54: unfortunately, implementation or us
- Page 55 and 56: any tactical options were employed
- Page 57 and 58: the end of the pilot. In addition t
- Page 59 and 60: Figure 5.1: Promap dissemination pr
- Page 61 and 62: the busy schedule of the new Divisi
- Page 63 and 64: Tactical deliveryCommand Team daily
- Page 65 and 66: Table 5.3: Number of respondents wh
- Page 67: permitted, up to four plain clothed
- Page 71 and 72: A simple time-series analysis (see
- Page 73 and 74: Two approaches were used to compute
- Page 75 and 76: Figure 6.3: Changes in the proporti
- Page 77 and 78: Figure 6.5: Changes in the proporti
- Page 79 and 80: With respect to implementation real
- Page 81 and 82: ReferencesAggresti, A. (1996) An In
- Page 83 and 84: Johnson, S.D., Summers, L., and Pea
- Page 85 and 86: Appendix 1. The information technol
- Page 87 and 88: Figure A1.2: Stand-alone applicatio
- Page 89 and 90: Recommendations that may be realise
- Page 91 and 92: Section 1: knowledge and understand
- Page 93 and 94: Extra Comments (please outline any
- Page 95 and 96: In relation to the evaluation of in
- Page 97 and 98: Time-series analysisFor the purpose
- Page 99 and 100: Figure A3.1: Changes in the spatial
- Page 101 and 102: Figure A3.2: Lorenz curves showing
- Page 103 and 104: To recapitulate and elaborate, the
- Page 105 and 106: Concluding comments on methodThe te
- Page 107 and 108: Figure A5.2: An enlargement of the
- Page 109 and 110: Figure A5.6: Prospective map magnif
- Page 111: Produced by the Research Developmen