Prospective crime mapping in operational context Final report

Table 2.4: Weekly Knox ratios for Mansfield (values in bold are statistically significantaccording to the residual scores (not shown), N=1566)WEEKS1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12100 1.43 1.29 1.31 1.23 1.21 1.20 1.17 1.14 1.13 1.06 1.03 0.98200 1.38 1.20 1.14 1.09 0.99 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.98 1.01 0.99 0.96300 1.09 1.04 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.04 1.06 1.09 1.05 1.03 1.05 1.00400 1.07 1.06 1.02 1.04 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.94 0.97 1.01 1.06 1.05500 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.05 1.05 1.08 1.06 1.03 1.00 0.95600 1.03 1.10 1.06 1.04 1.03 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.03 1.01 1.02 1.01700 0.99 1.01 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.00800 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.00 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.98900 1.02 1.02 1.06 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.001000 1.10 1.09 1.07 1.07 1.04 1.00 1.00 0.98 1.02 1.00 0.99 0.99The results, shown as Table 2.4, suggest that the risks for houses within 100m of a burgledhome endure for up to nine weeks, and for those within 200m four weeks. Thus, the resultsof the monthly and weekly analysis reveal essentially the same pattern.Wellingborough Police SectorFor Wellingborough, the data cover the period for which the most recent data were availableat the time of analysis, in this case January-December 2003. There were 1,350 burglariesover this period. Tables 2.5 and 2.6 show the Knox and Monte-Carlo analyses. A similarpattern emerges. The results suggest an elevated risk to those proximate to the burgled homefor around one month.Table 2.5: Knox ratios for Wellingborough (values in bold are statistically significantaccording to the residual scores (not shown), N=1350)MONTHS1 2 3 4 5 6100 1.63 1.04 0.70 0.82 0.96 0.64200 1.37 1.00 0.85 0.78 0.89 0.85300 1.27 0.96 0.90 0.82 0.89 0.93400 1.20 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.89500 1.17 1.03 0.94 1.01 0.92 0.93600 1.10 1.04 1.00 0.92 0.93 0.87700 1.01 1.05 0.99 0.96 0.94 0.93800 1.08 0.98 1.03 1.02 0.98 0.91900 1.01 0.97 0.95 0.95 1.02 0.951000 0.99 1.00 1.04 0.98 0.93 1.05The results of the Monte Carlo analysis show that 57 per cent more burglaries occurred within100m and one month of each other than would be expected on the basis of chance. A largenumber of burglaries also occur up to 400m and one month of each other, thereafter the Knoxratios diminish although they remain statistically significant up to 700m.To examine the pattern in more detail, a weekly analysis was conducted. The results, shownas Table 2.7, suggest a similar pattern but that the elevated risks endure for more than onemonth.8