ConflictBarometer_2016

THE AMERICAS
USA – CUBA (SYSTEM)
Intensity: 2 | Change: | Start: 1960
USA – MEXICO (BORDER SECURITY)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2005
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
USA vs. Cuba
system/ideology, international power
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
USA vs. Mexico
other
The non-violent crisis between the United States and Cuba
over ideology and international power continued. Despite
the reestablishment and gradual normalization of diplomatic
relations initiated by US President Barack Obama and his
Cuban counterpart Raúl Castro in 2015, the US Congress continued
to uphold commercial, economic, and financial sanctions
against Cuba by renewing the Trading with the Enemy
Act on September 13.
President Obama's visit to Cuba in March, which marked the
first visit of an US president to Cuba in 90 years, was preceded
by a third round of easing of trade and travel restrictions. In
a speech during his trip, Obama repeated his bid to lift the
embargo but also pointed out that Cuba needed to open its
political system and improve its human rights record, emphasizing
that ''even if we lifted the embargo tomorrow, Cubans
would not realize their potential without continued change
here in Cuba.'' Fidel Castro countered by writing an open letter
to Obama in which he stated that Cuba remained ''in the
grip of a US blockade” and did not ''need the empire to give
us any presents.” In addition, his brother Raúl used the visit
to urge the US to return the Guantanamo Bay area to Cuba [→
USA – Cuba (Guantanamo)].
The US and Cuba further engaged in bilateral talks, working
towards enhanced cooperation in the areas of education,
health, science, agriculture, migration, environmental protection,
and law enforcement. Mail transportation between the
US and Cuba resumed in March and commercial airlines offered
service since August. In September, the US named its
first Ambassador to Cuba in 50 years, and the inaugural Economic
Dialog on issues such as trade, investment, labor, and
employment was held in Washington, D.C. This reconciliation
process was furthered by the first abstention of the US in 25
years in the annual UN General Assembly vote condemning
the embargo against Cuba.
After the US presidential elections on November 8, Raúl Castro
formally extended his congratulations to President-elect
Donald Trump and simultaneously announced to launch a military
exercise called ''The Bastion”. While Trump did not provide
a clear policy stance towards Cuba, he appointed a group
of politicians openly advocating for the reversal of Obama's
rapprochement policies to his transition team.
The passing of Fidel Castro on November 26 provoked varying
reactions in the US, with Trump publicly condemning human
rights violations by the Cuban regime, and the Obama administration
''extending a hand of friendship to the Cuban people.”
In a speech held at a public ceremony for Fidel Castro
on December 3, Raúl Castro ''vow[ed] to defend the homeland
and socialism” and emphasized that the revolution was
not over. kah
125
The violent crisis between the United States and Mexico over
border security continued. Strategies to curb migration to
the US and cross-border drug and weapon trafficking as well
as the use of lethal force by the US Border Patrol (USBP) remained
disputed. Official figures by the US Department of
Homeland Security indicated that since 1994 the number of
USBP agents guarding the border increased from 4,287 to
more than 20,000 in 2016.
On January 25, USBP agents encountered two alleged smugglers
in Apache, Arizona, 30 miles from the Mexican border.
One of the Mexican nationals was shot and injured by the
USBP after he had attacked the patrol. The other one was arrested.
On June 9, a USBP agent shot and killed a Mexican
national in Yuma, Arizona, who had attacked and injured him.
Two other men who tried to cross the border were arrested. In
a subsequent statement, the Mexican Foreign Relations Department
expressed regret about the incident, further stressing
that the use of lethal force in immigration control and border
security should be used as a last resort. On September 8,
a Mexican truck driver who tried to run over USBP agents with
his vehicle was shot and injured at the border in Nogales, Arizona.
In his electoral campaign, US President-elect Donald Trump
promised to build a wall along the Mexican border, further
stating that he would pressure Mexico to pay for it, and to deport
up to three million Mexicans who were living in the US
illegally. He further announced that the US would retreat from
the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). His Mexican
counterpart Enrique Peña Nieto rejected the idea to pay
for a border wall and stated his country's will to merely ''modernise”
NAFTA without providing further specification. sas
VENEZUELA (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1992
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
opposition (MUD) vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The violent crisis over national power and the orientation of
the political system between the opposition and the government
continued. As the economic and financial situation
of the country further deteriorated, the opposition, mainly
consisting of the Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD), resorted
to both legal measures and street protests, which repeatedly
led to violent encounters with police and supporters
of President Nicolás Maduro's United Socialist Party (PSUV).
The Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflict reported more
than 3,500 protests and riots during the first semester, marking
an increase of almost 25 percent compared to the first half
of 2015.