ConflictBarometer_2016

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
Name of conflict 1 Conflict parties 2 Conflict items Start Change 3 Int. 4
Turkey (opposition) opposition groups vs. government system/ideology, national 2013 4
power
Turkey (PKK, TAK) PKK, TAK vs. government autonomy 1974 5
Turkey – Iraq*
Turkey vs. Iraq vs. Kurdistan Regional international power 1979 1
Government (Iraq)
Turkey – Russia* Turkey vs. Russia international power 2015 2
Yemen (AQAP – al-Houthi) AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia vs. al-Houthi,
forces loyal to former president Saleh
system/ideology, subnational
predominance
1992 3
Yemen (AQAP, Ansar
al-Sharia)
Ansar al-Sharia vs. government,
Southern Mobility Movement
system/ideology 1992 5
Yemen (SMM /South Yemen) SMM vs. government secession 2007 2
Yemen, Saudi Arabia
(al-Houthi)
al-Houthi, troops loyal to former
president Saleh vs. government, Saudi
Arabian led coalition, popular resistance
forces, tribal forces
national power, subnational
predominance
2004 5
1 234 cf. overview table for Europe
AFGHANISTAN (TALIBAN ET AL.)
Intensity: 5 | Change: | Start: 1994
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Taliban et al. vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The war over national power and the orientation of the political
system between the Taliban and various other Islamist
militant groups, on the one hand, and the government supported
by the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission (RSM), and
US forces, on the other, continued.
On March 15, the UNSC extended UNAMA's mandate until
March 2017. On July 6, US President Barack Obama announced
that 8,400 US forces would remain deployed until
the end of his presidency. In the ''Warsaw Summit Declaration
on Afghanistan'' from July 9, the states contributing
to RSM agreed to sustain their presence beyond 2016. This
commitment was strengthened on October 5, when RSMcontributing
and several other states and organizations additionally
pledged USD 15.2 billion financial aid to the Afghan
government until 2020 to promote political stability, statebuilding,
and economical development. According to UNAMA,
fighting in Afghanistan led to 11,418 civilian casualties. While
the civilian death-toll decreased by two percent compared
to 2015, the total number ofinjured civilians increased by
six percent, marking an overall increase by three percent.
These numbers include casualties from violence related to
the so-called Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) [→
Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. Ground operations, suicide attacks, and
IEDs caused the majority of civilian casualties. Furthermore,
over 636,500 people were internally displaced nationwide
by the end of the year. Throughout the year, according to
the Afghan government at least 6,785 Afghan National Defence
Security Forces (ANDSF) were killed and at least 11,777
wounded. On September 22, the government agreed on a
170
draft peace deal with Hezb-i-Islami, led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar,
which called for a ceasefire, judicial amnesty for Hekmatyar,
release of prisoners, governmental recognition of the
group, and support for the lifting ofinternational sanctions.
Throughout the year, the government continued to hold talks
with Pakistan over the possible establishment of a peace process
with the Taliban.
Both Afghan and international security forces continued
to conduct operations targeting Islamist militant groups
throughout the country. In accordance with the aims of RSM,
the (ANDSF) increasingly conducted military operations on
their own authority in 2016. Countering the Taliban's annual
spring offensive, ANDSF launched the countrywide ''Operation
Shafaq” on March 22, which left at least 690 people dead
in April alone. During a highway clearance operation that
started on May 9 and lasted several days, military units led
by Vice President Rashid Dostum killed at least 35 militants
and wounded 40 in Jawzjan province. The operation was conducted
on the Sar-i-Pul-Jawzjan highway between the provincial
capital Shiberghan and the city of Sar-i-Pul, eponymous
province. ''Operation Shafaq II” followed in November and
was carried out in 13 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. This was
the first large-scale ANDSF offensive in the winter months.
Throughout the year, several local Taliban groups surrendered
to the authorities. For instance, on June 22, at least
115 Taliban handed over their weapons following a government
operation in Astana area of Sherin Tagab district, Faryab
province.
Moreover, RSM and additional US forces continued to provide
military support to ANDSF. On January 2, Afghan special
forces, with intelligence support by RSM units, freed 59 prisoners
held by the Taliban in Nahr-i-Saraj district, Helmand
province. A US airstrike on March 26 killed 73 Taliban near
Nad Ali district, Helmand. On June 6, a night raid in Pyarokhel
village on the outskirts of Pul-i-Alam, Logar province, conducted
by Afghan and US forces, left 13 Taliban dead and
four wounded. On November 4, a US airstrike killed at least
33 people, injured 29, most of them civilians, and destroyed
several houses near Kunduz city, eponymous province. The
strike was requested by US and Afghan forces during clashes
with Taliban inaresidential area.
As in previous years, militants frequently attacked Afghan
security forces. On January 19, Taliban attacked an Afghan