ConflictBarometer_2016

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
GUINEA (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2006
KENYA (INTER-COMMUNAL VIOLENCE)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1963
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
UFDG et al. vs. government
national power
The violent crisis over national power between the opposition
coalition, led by the party Union of Guinea's Democratic
Forces (UFDG), on the one hand, and the government of President
Alpha Condé, on the other, continued.
On January 2, Condé appointed Sidya Touré, leader of the
opposition party Union of Republican Forces (UFR) and candidate
in the 2015 presidential elections, as his high representative,
which was condemned by the UFDG as an attempt
of co-optation. Throughout the year, the preparations for
local elections scheduled for October and anti-government
protests, mainly organized by the UFDG, dominated the political
landscape.
On February 21, the Independent National Election Commission
(CENI) postponed the local elections to an undefined
date. Six days later, UFDG's leader Cellou Dalein Diallo
denounced this move as a violation of an earlier agreement,
which scheduled the elections for the first trimester of
2016. On March 21, the UFDG announced nationwide general
strikes for March 30 and 31, criticizing the postponement
of local elections, among others. During these days, authorities
arrested eight suspected UFDG supporters in the capital
Conakry for allegedly being involved in destabilizing activities.
On July 9, in a speech in front of his followers, Diallo demanded
Condé to resign, accusing him of not respecting the
constitution as well as previous agreements concerning the
electoral calendar. Four days later, the government blamed
Diallo for preparing a coup. In early August, Ousmane Gaoual
Diallo, member of the UFDG, was arrested for having insulted
Condé and for having threatened three other ruling
party members during a speech at the UFDG headquarters in
Conakry. On August 16, more than 500,000 people, among
them numerous members of the UFDG, took to the streets
of the capital, protesting the government's alleged economic
mismanagement and corruption. The mass demonstration
was accompanied by clashes between protesters and security
forces using tear gas and live ammunition, leaving at least two
persons injured. Moreover, one alleged bystander was shot
dead.
On September 1, Condé and Cellou Dalein Diallo met for
talks, discussing the country's socioeconomic situation, and
both subsequently stated to have overcome differences. Six
days later, the CENI announced that local elections would be
held on December 18. Further talks between the government
and the opposition about the organisation of local elections
started on September 22, but were suspended a few days
later. After the resumption of the talks in early October, both
sides signed an agreement on October 12, according to which
the current voter lists could be used for the local elections.
Moreover, the latter were rescheduled for February 2017. afi
Conflict parties: Pokot vs. Turkana; Samburu vs.
Turkana; Degodia vs. Garre; Maasai
vs. Kipsigis; Giriama vs. Orma; Pokot
vs. Luhya; Maasai vs. Kisii; Ajuraan vs.
Degodia et al.
Conflict items: subnational predominance, resources
The limited war over resources and subnational predominance
between various ethnic groups de-escalated to a violent
crisis.
Clashes erupted over cattle rustling, land use, grazing and water
rights, as well as competition over regional representation
and control of oil-rich areas, both between different ethnic
groups and among sub-clans within ethnic groups. Most
affected counties were Isiolo and Laikipia in central Kenya,
Marsabit and Wajir in northern Kenya and Elegeyo-Marakwet
in western Kenya.
On January 7, communal violence over cattle theft and grazing
grounds that started last December continued at the border
of Kisumu and Nandi counties in Western Kenya, resulting
in at least five fatalities and several burned down houses.
Pokot and Marakwet communities clashed between March 22
to 24 in Elegeyo-Marakwet, leaving at least four people dead,
and dozens of livestock taken. In response to the fighting,
Marakwet fighters killed three Pokot people on April 14. On
September 16, another clash between the groups left two
dead. In October, the communities clashed several times
along the border of Baringo and Elegeyo-Marakwet counties,
where Marakwet members had attacked Pokot herders near
Kerio River, leaving three dead and stealing over 170 cattle.
When hundreds of livestock were driven away by suspected
Pokot raiders, three people were killed and two others injured
during a series of retaliation attacks in gun fighting in the Kerio
Valley.
In total, clashes between the two communities left at least 20
people dead this year.
The Degodia community attacked Gabra herders in Marsabit
on March 26, killing two. Three days later, fighters from the
Gabra community killed three Degodia people in a counterattack.
On April 25, Degodia clan militias raided Ajuraan clan
homestead in Korondile, Wajir, killing three civilians and injuring
three others. On November 5, six people were killed
and two others were injured in fightings between Jibrail and
Matan clans, sub-clans of Degodia, in Wajir, in the context of
rising tension ahead of next year's elections.
Kipsigis, a Kalenjin sub-group, and the Kisii community
clashed on the border of Narok and Kisii counties on October
21, leaving eight injured and two houses torched. The
two communities engaged in a border demarcation conflict
over grazing grounds. On November 6, after Kipsigis raiders
had stolen three cows from Kisii farmers, clashes between the
communities erupted at Olmelil along the Narok-Kisii border,
leaving one dead and eight injured.
Aulihan and Abudwak communities clashed in Garissa county
75