ConflictBarometer_2016

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
In 2016, the HIIK observed 402 conflicts, among them 226
violent and 176 non-violent ones. The number of full-scale
wars decreased from 19 to 18, while the number of limited
wars decreased by four to 20 in total. Overall, 188 violent
crises were observed, marking a decrease by four compared
to 2015. The number of non-violent crises decreased by ten
to 78, while the number of disputes increased by eight to 98.
WARS:
Throughout the year, two conflicts, both in the Middle East
and Maghreb, escalated to a war. In Syria, violence between
different opposition groups, such as the National Coalition
for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces and their military
wing, the Free Syrian Army, as well as various moderate
and Islamist groups, intensified [→ Syria (inter-opposition violence)].
While the groups jointly fought against the Syrian
government or the so-called Islamic State (IS) on occasion,
they also repeatedly attacked each other. In Yemen, the conflict
between al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and
Ansar al Sharia, on the one hand, and the government of
President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, supported by the US, escalated
to a war [→ Yemen (AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia)]. AQAP increasingly
attacked government and pro-government troops
and achieved territorial gains in the first three months of the
year. Government troops, supported by US and Saudi-Arabian
airstrikes, pushed back AQAP in the following months.
Overall, the Middle East and Maghreb witnessed eight wars
in 2016, more than any other region. In Syria, following UN
Resolution 2254 from 12/18/15, a ceasefire between opposition
groups and the government came into effect on February
27. However, by April, the ceasefire had collapsed entirely.
From July onwards, the government started a siege of Aleppo,
blocking supply-lines for opposition groups. In the following
months, violence in and around Aleppo intensified significantly,
with Russian and Syrian airstrikes repeatedly targeting
the opposition-held parts of the city. On December 22, government
forces took full control over eastern Aleppo, after
35,000 people had been evacuated to the opposition-held
town of Idlib.
The war between between IS, on the one hand, and Syria, Iraq,
as well as other governments and several militant groups,
on the other, continued. In Syria, IS lost territories in the
northern governorates of Aleppo, ar-Raqqa, and al-Hasakah,
while it maintained control over its territories in Deir ez-Zor
Governorate and extended its control in Homs Governorate.
In Iraq, IS was pushed back from Nineveh Governorate and
al-Anbar Governorate, but maintained control over areas in
Kirkuk, Erbil, Diyala, and Salahuddin Governorates. According
to the UN, more than 16,000 people were killed in the
course of the conflict in Iraq, among them over 6,800 civilians.
The number of IDPs decreased after almost one million
people had returned to their homes in former IS-held areas.
In Afghanistan, the nationwide war between Taliban
and other Islamist militant groups, on the one hand, and
the government, on the other, continued. Taliban repeatedly
attempted to take control over major cities like Kunduz
and numerous districts in several provinces throughout
the country [→ Afghanistan (Taliban et al.)]. According to
US Forces Afghanistan, by the end of November, 174 out of
GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA
407 districts in Afghanistan were insufficiently or not at all
controlled by the government. Moreover, Taliban conducted
attacks on government buildings, diplomatic missions, international
targets as well as media outlets. The war in Libya
between the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR),
the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC), and the
newly formed Government of National Accord (GNA), each
supported by different armed groups, continued [→ Libya
(opposition)]. The GNA was formed by former HoR and GNC
members, but parts of HoR and GNC did not recognize GNA
and resumed their respective governmental activities. Consequently,
clashes between the Libyan National Army, supporting
HoR, and Shura Councils, supporting GNC, continued
and concentrated in eastern Libya. In Turkey, the war
between the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its splinter
group Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), on the one hand, and
the government, on the other, continued. While the Turkish
Armed Forces (TAF) and PKK repeatedly clashed in eastern
provinces, TAK also conducted several bomb attacks in western
provinces. Overall, at least 173 civilians, 540 security
personnel, and 2,241 militants were killed. The war between
al-Houthi and the government in Yemen continued, while the
humanitarian situation in the country further deteriorated [→
Yemen, Saudi Arabia (al-Houthi)].
As in the previous year, the only highly violent conflict in Europe
took place in Ukraine, where the war in the Donbas region
between the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk
People's Republic, on the one hand, and the Ukrainian government
as well as Ukrainian nationalist volunteer battalions, on
the other, continued in its third consecutive year. The number
of civilian casualties increased and the conflict parties did not
succeed in implementing several ceasefire agreements despite
international mediation efforts [→ Ukraine (Donbas)].
In Africa, seven wars were observed, marking a decrease by
two. In Sudan, the war in Darfur between the Sudan Revolutionary
Front and the government continued in its 14th consecutive
year and was influenced by inter-communal fighting
[→ Sudan (Darfur); Sudan (inter-communal violence)].
Furthermore, the war between SPLM/A-North and the government
in Sudan's South Kordofan and Blue Nile regions
continued [→ Sudan (opposition)]. Violence decreased in the
second half of the year after both conflict parties had joined
the ''Roadmap Agreement.” In South Sudan, the war between
various ethnic groups over arable land and cattle continued
[→ South Sudan (inter-communal violence)]. It was increasingly
influenced by the war between Nuer-affiliated Sudan
People Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) and
the government of President Salva Kiir that intensified after
a failed peace agreement in 2015 [→ South Sudan(SPLM/Ain-Opposition)].
While fighting subsided in the first half of
the year due to attempts to implement the peace accord, violence
intensified from July onwards, especially in and around
the capital Juba. Ethnically motivated violence markedly increased,
and in the end of November, the UN voiced concerns
over ethnic cleansings allegedly committed by both
sides. In Nigeria, the war between farmers and pastoralists
over control of arable land and cattle continued in its fifth
consecutive year with 1,135 conflict-related deaths in the
course of the year [→ Nigeria (farmers – pastoralists)]. The
war between Boko Haram and Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and
Niger continued, although conflict-related deaths decreased
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