ConflictBarometer_2016

EUROPE
30.
On May 29, clashes between ZSU and militants near Donetsk
and Mariupol left three soldiers dead and eight wounded.
Hostilities further intensified from June onwards. For instance,
on July 23, a mortar fire exchange killed six soldiers
as well as at least seven militants and wounded 13 soldiers,
according to government sources. On August 7, LPR leader
Igor Plotnitsky was wounded by an IED attached to his car in
the city of Luhansk, eponymous oblast. Plotnitsky accused
the government of being responsible, while the latter denied
any involvement. On August 26, the Trilateral Contact
Group proposed a renewed ceasefire to be implemented from
September 1. Despite ongoing ceasefire violations, the truce
was widely respected and violence significantly decreased
in the first two weeks of September. However, on September
12, the military accused LPR and DPR of repeatedly using
heavy weapons and attacking Ukrainian positions in Luhansk
oblast, which allegedly left two soldiers dead. In turn, militants
blamed the ZSU for using heavy weaponry and shelling
residential areas near the city of Donetsk.
Militant and government forces continued to clash near
the government-controlled city of Avdiivka and militantcontrolled
Yasynuvata as well as north and east of Mariupol,
which resulted in a renewed peak in hostilities by mid-
November.
Starting from mid-December, the OSCE again recorded a sharp
increase in ceasefire violations. Heavy fightings began on
December 18, with SMM recording 2,900 explosions from
12 mm artillery, tanks, and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems
near government-controlled Svitlodarsk and DPR-controlled
Debaltseve, Donetsk oblast. The same day, the government
reported a militant attempt to advance into Svitlodarsk. ZSU
repelled the attacks, but later reported that seven soldiers
were killed and 25 wounded. The militants, in turn, accused
ZSU of attacking Debaltseve with heavy artillery. On December
22, militants reported an attempt by 50 soldiers to
break through to the village of Kalinovka, located near Debaltseve,
while ZSU reported that dozens of its soldiers were
wounded in shellings. From December 18 to 23, fightings
continued in this area, leaving eight soldiers dead and approx.
30 wounded. Militants reported four fighters killed
and two wounded, whereas ZSU claimed it had killed 18 and
wounded at least 38.
SMM visited bases of both sides almost daily throughout the
year, monitoring the compliance with Minsk II concerning the
withdrawal of heavy weapons. On several occasions, both
sides hindered SMM from examining arsenals or delayed access.
SMM repeatedly reported that the sites as well as the
movements of weapons were not in compliance with the withdrawal
lines.
Throughout the year, both conflict parties undertook diplomatic
steps. On January 19, security advisor of the German
chancellor, Christoph Heusgen, and diplomatic advisor of
the French president, Jacques Audibert, visited the capital
Kiev to discuss the implementation of the Minsk II Agreement.
For the same reason, US Secretary of State John Kerry
and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Zurich,
Switzerland, one day later. On April 20, the first NATO-Russia
Council since mid-2014 took place in Brussels, Belgium. Four
days later, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President
Barack Obama discussed the ceasefire in Donbas region
during a bilateral meeting in Hanover, Germany. On April
27, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland visited
Ukraine. On May 11, the Normandy Format composed of
the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany,
met in the German capital Berlin to discuss solutions
to the conflict. The parties agreed on the creation of demilitarized
zones in militant-controlled areas and other security
measures in Donbas. Local elections were discussed
without reaching an agreement. On June 14, Andriy Parubiy,
speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, stated that Ukraine pursued
NATO membership and called upon NATO to respond to
Russian aggression. One week later, the EU decided to extend
economic sanctions against Russia until the end of January
2017.
Throughout the year, constitutional amendments and local
elections in Donbas were discussed frequently. With regard
to the status of the Donbas Region, Ukrainian President Petro
Poroshenko stated on June 28 that increased decentralization
could only be considered after a full and stable ceasefire,
including disarmament of militant units. On August 4, the
Speaker of the Parliament of DPR, Denis Pushilin, accused
the Ukrainian government of not complying with the Minsk II
Agreement and warned of further escalations.
On August 13, the High Representative of the European Union
for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini,
urged Ukraine and Russia to engage in the implementation
of Minsk II and emphasized her support for the territorial
integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. Four days later,
Poroshenko asked the EU and the OSCE for more international
presence in Donbas. On September 1, the foreign ministers
of the OSCE member countries met in Potsdam, Germany, to
discuss, among other things, the settlement of the conflict in
Ukraine. Obama and Putin debated the same topic during the
G20 summit in Hangzhou, PRC, on September 4 and 5. Two
days later, the so-called Weimar Triangle consisting of the foreign
ministers of Poland, France, and Germany met in Weimar,
Germany, and appealed to the international community to intensify
efforts to de-escalate the situation. On September 14,
the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, and Germany met in
Kiev in order to promote a peace deal. One week later, the
Trilateral Contact Group agreed on the withdrawal of troops
and weapons from the settlements of Petrovske in Donetsk
as well as Zolote and Stanytsya Luhanska in Luhansk to create
security zones. Whereas forces disengaged from Petrovske
and Zolote in October and November, withdrawal of forces
from Stanytsya Luhanska did not take place. On October 19
and November 29, the Normandy Format deliberated on the
situation in eastern Ukraine.
The investigation concerning the MH17 flight shot down by
a missile launcher on 7/17/2014 continued. On May 3, the
journalist group Bellingcat published a report that linked the
missile launcher to the Russian 53rd air defense brigade.
The final report of an international investigation led by the
Netherlands was published on September 28. It stated that
a missile component had been found at the downing site on
June 6, and that the corresponding missile system had been
moved from Russia to Donbas and returned to Russia the
same night. mso, okl
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