ConflictBarometer_2016

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Democratic Forces (ADF) fighters were accused of being responsible for most of the killings of civilians in Beni Territory [→ DR
Congo (ADF)]. Violent protests against President Joseph Kabila intensified [→ DR Congo (opposition)]. In October, presidential
elections, scheduled for November 2016, were postponed to April 2018. However, in late December, the opposition and the
government agreed on holding presidential elections in the following year. The conflict between various opposition groups
and the government of President Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi de-escalated to a violent crisis after the flare-up in 2015 [→
Burundi (opposition)]. Throughout the year, numerous mass graves were discovered that opposition members attributed to
killings allegedly committed by the government in December 2015. However, the latter claimed that the dead were their own
supporters who had been killed by armed opposition members. Moreover, grenade attacks, politically motivated killings, and
abductions continued, leaving dozens dead. The AU and UN repeatedly suggested the deployment of a stabilizing mission,
which was rejected by Nkurunziza. In Uganda, in the context of general elections that took place on February 18, the conflict
between opposition groups and the government of President Yoweri Museveni intensified [→ Uganda (opposition)]. Furthermore,
the conflicts in various local Kingdoms over subnational predominance, political autonomy, and resources continued
[→ Uganda (Bakonzo / Rwenzururu); Uganda (Baganda / Buganda)]. In Rwenzururu Region, between February and April, ethnic
groups clashed over local elections [→ Uganda (intercommunal rivalry / Rwenzururu)]. The conflict between the ethnic
Bakonzo and the central government over the Bakonzo's Rwenzururu Kingdom's status of autonomy escalated to a violent
crisis.
In South Africa, violent protests between the student movement #FeesMustFall and security forces continued and were rekindled
in September [→ South Africa (opposition)]. Most of the country's universities were affected by the protests, with students
initially demonstrating against a tuition fee increase and later for a change of the educational and political system. Moreover,
violence against immigrants from mostly African countries continued, particularly lootings and destructions ofimmigrantowned
shops [→ South Africa (xenophobes)]. However, the anti-immigrant violence decreased in comparison to the previous
year. In Angola, the conflict between the main opposition party National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA)
and the governing party Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) escalated from a dispute to a violent crisis
[→ Angola (UNITA)]. Furthermore, the secession conflict over the province of Cabinda between the Front for the Liberation of
the Enclave Cabinda (FLEC) and the government escalated to a violent crisis. In several clashes between FLEC members and
the military, about 60 persons were killed [→ Angola (FLEC / Cabinda)]. In Tanzania, the violent crisis between the opposition
parties Civic United Front (CUF) and Party for Democracy and Progress (Chadema), on the one hand, and the ruling Party of the
Revolution (CCM), on the other, continued. The re-run of the nullified Zanzibar elections was accompanied by political killings
[→ Tanzania (Chadema, CUF – CCM)]. In Mozambique, violence escalated between the largest opposition party Mozambican
National Resistance (RENAMO), demanding the autonomy of the central and northern provinces of Manica, Sofala, Tete, Zambezia,
Nampula, and Niassa, and the government of the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) [→ Mozambique (RENAMO)].
In numerous clashes between RENAMO members and security forces, 68 people were killed and approx. 6,000 civilians fled
to neighboring Malawi and Zimbabwe.
IN 2016 BY INTENSITY GROUPS
2015:
2016:
high intensity
medium intensity
low intensity
55
22
18
42
12
12
10
7 7
17
10
17
15
10
7
9
7
0
3
2
0
5
3
0 0 0
2
6
5
4
4
5
4
0 0
2
5
0 0
3
territory
secession
autonomy
resources
decolonisation
national power
subnational predominance
system / ideology
international power
other
dispute non-violent crisis violent crisis limited war war
59