ConflictBarometer_2016

GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA
In total, 97 of all the 226 violent conflicts involved System/Ideology.
Overall, 98 conflicts evolved, among others, around resources
such as arable land, raw materials, water, or the profits gained
thereof. These conflicts tended to be more violent than those
not involving resources. 67 percent were conducted on a violent
level, among them nine wars, marking an increase by
three compared to 2015. Of those, five were fought in Sub-
Saharan Africa, two in the Middle East and Maghreb, and one
in Europe and the Americas respectively. Seven of eight conflicts
over this item were carried out violently in the Middle
East and Maghreb. Furthermore, 21 of 27 conflicts regarding
resources in Sub-Saharan Africa and two thirds of the conflicts
in the Americas comprised violent means. In Europe, however,
merely one out of seven conflicts over this item was violent.
Subnational Predominance, i.e. the aim to take de-facto control
over an area or population, was the third most prevalent
item this year, as it was observed in 90 conflicts. 67 Subnational
Predominance conflicts were conducted violently, including
five wars. In Asia and Oceania, violence occurred in
22 of the 34 conflicts regarding Subnational Predominance,
while the share was more than 90 percent in the Americas,
and two thirds (8/12) in the Middle East and Maghreb. In Sub-
Saharan Africa, 25 of the 29 conflicts over this item were conducted
violently, in contrast to Europe, where only one of the
three conflicts reached a violent level.
National Power accounted for a total of 83 cases. Ten of these
conflicts were observed in Europe, with 60 percent witnessing
violence. 17 of the conflicts over national power took place
in the Middle East and Maghreb, five in the Americas, all of
which were violent, 34 in Sub-Saharan Africa, and 17 in Asia
and Oceania.
Conflicts regarding Autonomy amounted to 63 cases. There
was no violent conflict on autonomy issues in Europe,
whereas two out of five in the Americas and 12 out of 26
in Asia and Oceania reached a violent level. In Sub-Saharan
Africa, 13 conflicts over autonomy took place, eight of which
were fought on violent levels. Two thirds of the autonomy
conflicts in the Middle East and Maghreb were violent.
Territory was pursued in 45 conflicts. Ten of these took place
in Europe, five in Sub-Saharan Africa, ten in the Americas,
13 in Asia and Oceania, and seven in the Middle East and
Maghreb. In total, ten were fought on a violent level, only
one of them being categorized as highly violent, while none
reached the level of a war.
44 conflicts concerned Secession, which marks a slight decrease
compared to last year. Among those, 28 were violent.
In the Middle East and Maghreb all five secession conflicts
were violent, as well as five out of eight in Sub-Saharan Africa,
seven out of 15 in Europe, and almost three quarters of the
conflicts in Asia and Oceania.
International Power accounted for 32 conflicts in total. Neither
in Europe, nor Sub-Saharan Africa, or in the Americas International
Power conflicts turned violent. Only two out of
ten in Asia and Oceania as well as one out of nine in the Middle
East and Maghreb included violence means. This makes
the item the least prone to violence, considering both its frequency
and intensity in all regions. kv
1
9
34
territory
2
26
17
GLOBAL FREQUENCY OF CONFLICT ITEMS
IN 2016 BY INTENSITY GROUPS
secession
0 0 0
4
23
decolonisation
36
autonomy
16
80
58
11
system / ideology
national power
COUPS D'ÉTAT
high intensity
medium intensity
low intensity
international power
subnational predominance
resources
The unsuccessful coup by a faction of the Turkish Armed
Forces (TAF) in July was the only observed coup attempt this
year. Against the backdrop of the attempted coup and the
subsequent crackdown on opposition, civil society, and independent
media, the conflict over national power and the
orientation of the political system between various opposition
groups and the government escalated to a limited-war
[→ Turkey (opposition)].
In the night from July 15 to 16, TAF factions blocked two
Bosporus bridges and deployed tanks to Istanbul and the
capital Ankara. The anti-government forces attacked the parliament
building and the police special forces headquarters
in Ankara with fighter jets and tanks, killing at least 42 and injuring
43. Moreover, the coup plotters took control of public
squares and the national broadcaster TRT, claiming they had
taken control over the country in order to secure democracy.
Thereafter, hundreds of thousands of protesters rallied on the
streets following a call from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
In total, over 260 persons were killed and over 1,400 injured.
Following the coup attempt, the government blamed the
Gülen movement, led by the US-based Islamic scholar Fethullah
Gülen, for the coup. It then detained thousands of soldiers,
dismissed thousands of judges, and imposed a travel
ban on all academic staff. Furthermore, the government arrested
or dismissed about 110,000 security forces, judges,
prosecutors, mayors, civil servants, and business leaders and
banned about 1,500 NGOs under the state of emergency
which was upheld until the end of the year. President Erdogan
also announced to discuss the reintroduction of the
death penalty. Furthermore, the government increasingly
repressed independent media, shutting down at least 150
media outlets and arresting several journalists.
47
27
18
49
24
3
1
30
20
46
32
0
9
18
other
19