ConflictBarometer_2016

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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA between Pakistan and India constituted the only highly violent interstate conflict worldwide. 58 percent (45/77) of all intrastate and 48 percent (12/25) of all substate conflicts witnessed violence. Of two transstate conflicts, one was fought on a violent level. In the Middle East and Maghreb, two out of twelve interstate conflicts involved violence. In comparison, 62 percent of all intrastate conflicts in the region witnessed violence, with seven conflicts reaching a highly violent level. Less than half (5/11) of the region's substate conflicts were violent. In contrast, all three transstate conflicts were fought on a violent level, namely the wars involving the al-Houthis on the Arabian Peninsula and the war against the so-called Islamic State as well as the conflict regarding al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. twt INTERSTATE CONFLICTS The global interstate conflict landscape in 2016 consisted of 69 interstate conflicts that involved 102 sovereign states as direct parties, with eleven EU member states being direct parties due to collective decision making. As in previous years, the vast majority of the conflicts revolved around territory (43) and international power (32). Other important issues included resources (19), transnational ethnic communities (19), alleged use of non-state actors in proxy conflicts (12), as well as questions of ideology and the domestic political system (9). While the ratio of interstate to intrastate conflicts continued to decrease both in overall numbers as well as in in terms of average intensity, 2016 saw interstate violence in at least ten cases. All violent interstate conflicts involved the issue of maritime or continental territorial claims. Following a temporary de-escalation to a violent crisis in 2015, the conflict between Pakistan and India reached the level of a limited war again, marking the only highly-violent interstate conflict in 2016 [→ Pakistan – India]. Tensions along the Line of Control resulted in the deaths of at least 83 soldiers and civilians, with heavy shelling forcing more than 35,000 people to flee. Confrontations between regular armed forces occurred also in the conflicts between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, Sudan and South-Sudan, as well as Syria and Israel. Following border skirmishes in June, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea escalated by two levels to a violent crisis [→ Ethiopia – Eritrea]. As in previous years, several interstate conflicts escalated due to violent encounters between regular forces and non-state actors operating near the border or in disputed waters. In the territorial conflict between Guatemala and Belize, non-fatal shootings occurred between Belizean soldiers and Guatemalan settlers. In the conflict over the delineation of exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and fishing grounds in the South China Sea, the Indonesian navy destroyed several foreign fishing vessels and arrested Chinese fishermen in disputed waters [→ China – Vietnam et al. (South China Sea)]. From a regional perspective, most territorial conflicts occurred in Asia and Oceania (13), followed by the Americas and Europe, each counting ten conflicts. The Middle East and Maghreb as well as Sub-Saharan Africa saw six and four territorial conflicts, respectively. In many cases, territorial conflict co-occurred with conflict over resources (17 cases), or international power rivalry (16 cases). More than half of the territorial conflicts were fought over land borders (27), while 21 conflicts revolved also or exclusively around maritime claims, concerning islands, rocks, and/or the extension of EEZs. Among the 19 resource conflicts, most were fought over fossil fuels (13), followed by fishing grounds (5), and water (5). Fossil resource conflicts revolved around oil (11), gas (8), or both (6), with many of the resources being stored in fields below the seabed. Examples included the nonviolent crisis between Japan, the PRC, and the ROC over the Shirakaba/Chunxiao gas field in the East China Sea, the dispute between Equatorial- Guinea and Gabon over the oil-rich waters of the Corisco Bay, and the conflict over oil and gas deposits in the Arctic [→ Russia – Norway et al. (Arctic)]. Many maritime conflicts entailed fishing grounds as an important issue, occasionally leading to the involvement of fishermen in the conflict. By contrast, water conflicts were observed only in inland regions, usually revolving around water diversion and dam-building at transboundary rivers. In the Indo-Pakistani conflict, India's discussion of building new dams along the Chenab river aggravated the diplomatic crisis between the two states. Conflict over large-scale dam projects by the states at the upper reaches remained on dispute level in Northeast Africa [→ Ethiopia – Egypt, Sudan (GERD)], but escalated to a nonviolent crisis in Central Asia [→ Uzbekistan – Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan]. Conceptions of historical guilt and victimhood were a major issue in ten conflicts. Prominent examples were the dispute between Turkey and Armenia over the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, the dispute between France and Rwanda over the responsibility for the 1994 genocide, and the dispute between Indonesia and Timor-Leste over accountability for the 1999 violence. In East Asia, Japanese accounts of its history before 1945 continued to influence the territorial conflicts between Japan and its neighbors [→ Japan – China (East China Sea); Japan – South Korea]. Tensions over transnational ethnic communities were an issue in 19 conflicts, figuring prominently in the nonviolent crises between Russia and its Baltic neighbors over the status of Russian minorities. In the Americas, several conflicts revolved around immigrants, notably the violent crisis between Mexico and the USA, which became also a major issue in the 2016 US Presidential Elections. In Central America, the conflict over Haitian immigration between the Dominican Republic and Haiti escalated by two levels with several violent 16
GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA INTERSTATE CONFLICTS IN 2016 Afghanistan Nepal Pakistan Bhutan Thailand El Salvador India Cambodia Belize Guatemala Honduras Haiti Philippines ROC Brunei Viet Nam Malaysia Singapore Tonga Dominican Republic PRC Indonesia Fiji Nicaragua Colombia Guyana Venezuela ROK DPRK Mexico Timor-Leste Eritrea Ethiopia Egypt Spain Argentina Cuba USA Japan Gabon Equatorial Guinea Sudan Bolivia Chile Peru UK Iceland Sweden Denmark Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania Canada Norway Russia Australia Syria Iran EU UAE Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Israel Lebanon Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan South Sudan Burundi Rwanda DR Congo France New Zealand Poland Moldova Montenegro Azerbaijan Armenia Tajikistan Albania Georgia Turkey Iraq Ukraine Hungary Slovenia Greece Cyprus Slovakia Romania Croatia FYROM INTENSITY 5 WAR 4 LIMITED WAR ___V_I_O_L_E_N_T__________ 3 _ V _ I _ O _ L _ E _ N _ T __ C _ RI _ S _ I _ S ___ NON-VIOLENT 2 NON-VIOLENT CRISIS 1 DISPUTES 0 NO CONFLICT This network (N=92) shows all conflictive bilateral relationships monitored in 2016. Node size is determined by the number of bilateralconflicts the state was involved in. Edges are sized and coloured by the conflict intensity. The layout is force determined and independent components were placed adjacent to their regional affiliates. The EU is treated as an independent actor. Member states who take conflict positions that are not sufficiently covered by the position of the EU, or who take part in conflicts in which the EU is not a party, are depicted in independet nodes. jfr, los
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Page 3 and 4: CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2016 Analyzed
Page 5 and 6: AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
Page 8 and 9: Since 1991, quantitative conflict r
Page 10: Evaluated is the overall number of
Page 13 and 14: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2016 (SUBNATIO
Page 15 and 16: GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT In 2016, the HII
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Page 21 and 22: GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA In total,
Page 23 and 24: NEGOTIATIONS AND TREATIES In 2016,
Page 25 and 26: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION ern
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Page 29 and 30: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION REG
Page 31 and 32: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Equ
Page 33 and 34: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2016
Page 35 and 36: EUROPE of a Cypriot reunification i
Page 37 and 38: EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
Page 39 and 40: EUROPE The Azerbaijani army alleged
Page 41 and 42: EUROPE population of the city Vukov
Page 43 and 44: EUROPE While GD repeatedly accused
Page 45 and 46: EUROPE LATVIA (RUSSIAN-SPEAKING MIN
Page 47 and 48: EUROPE ing the ''gay propaganda”
Page 49 and 50: EUROPE RUSSIA - UKRAINE (CRIMEA) In
Page 51 and 52: EUROPE SWEDEN (XENOPHOBES) Intensit
Page 53 and 54: UKRAINE (DONBAS) January February M
Page 55 and 56: EUROPE UKRAINE (OPPOSITION) Intensi
Page 57 and 58: EUROPE dent, declared that ''Anacon
Page 59 and 60: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN SUB-SAHARAN AF
Page 61 and 62: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Democratic Force
Page 63 and 64: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
Page 65 and 66: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ANGOLA (UNITA) I
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to strengthen Ou
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA thorities. Follo
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA against Mayi-May
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA force, known as
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA GUINEA (OPPOSITI
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MALI (INTER-MILI
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA in years before,
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA of the PDP in Po
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Nyamwasa, living
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOMALIA, KENYA (
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA lic debate about
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SOUTH SUDAN (SPLM/A - IN - OPPOSITI
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA near Yei town. O
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA such as cattle,
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Panel on Sudan e
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA clashed. The fig
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA UGANDA (INTERCOM
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the Americas
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THE AMERICAS The overall number of
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Overview: Conflicts in the Americas
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THE AMERICAS Alan Duncan stateda''p
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THE AMERICAS Rousseff until a final
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THE AMERICAS COLOMBIA (ELN) Intensi
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THE AMERICAS 20 transitory demilita
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THE AMERICAS ment, 3,517 alleged me
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THE AMERICAS Morales, declared that
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THE AMERICAS ily concerned with hig
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THE AMERICAS spite renewed federal
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THE AMERICAS NICARAGUA (OPPOSITION)
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THE AMERICAS USA - CUBA (SYSTEM) In
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Asia and Oceania
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ASIA AND OCEANIA With 123 conflicts
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Overview: Conflicts in Asia and Oce
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA BANGLADESH (CHITTA
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ASIA AND OCEANIA founded the Hong K
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ASIA AND OCEANIA monastery in Dragg
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ASIA AND OCEANIA sia off the coast
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Militant Bodos, ma
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Kitovi (NSCN-KK),
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ASIA AND OCEANIA INDONESIA (AHMADI)
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ASIA AND OCEANIA upon the internati
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ASIA AND OCEANIA mer vice president
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ASIA AND OCEANIA mine against the r
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ASIA AND OCEANIA tillery strike aga
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PAKISTAN (ISLAMIST MILITANT GROUPS)
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ASIA AND OCEANIA PAKISTAN - INDIA I
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ASIA AND OCEANIA sisted by the army
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ASIA AND OCEANIA ers for forced and
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAS
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB several bom
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Name of con
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AFGHANISTAN (TALIBAN ET AL.) Januar
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ALGERIA (OP
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB hostages in
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ning for th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB weaponry to
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ernorate, k
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB eight execu
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB for the ass
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB prisoners o
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Starting Au
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB manufacturi
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB from streng
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB entering th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB it for anot
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB sanctions o
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB temporary c
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IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
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eidelerg Institute for Internationa
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