ConflictBarometer_2016

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
Overall, 69 conflicts were observed in the Middle East and Maghreb. In total, ten highly violent conflicts took place in the
region, accounting for more than one quarter of all highly violent conflicts worldwide. Three conflicts escalated to wars. With
nine wars in total, the region accounted for almost half of all globally observed wars. As in previous years, most of the region's
conflicts were violent crises. Similarly, system/ideology continued to be the most pursued conflict item in total. Five out of
nine wars were fought over national power, while conflicts concerning international power and territory continued to be less
violent. Due to a methodological revision, the conflicts involving al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in Mauritania, Morocco,
Algeria and Tunisia as well as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, were transformed into a transstate conflict [→ Algeria, Mali
et al. (AQIM et al.)].
In Afghanistan, the war between the Taliban, on one side, and the government, the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission (RSM)
as well as US-troops, on the other, continued. While the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces continued to conduct
military operations on their own authority, the Taliban repeatedly took control over several districts and major cities. For
instance, as in 2015, the Taliban attempted to capture Kunduz City in April and October. Furthermore, the group continued
to conduct numerous suicide and IED attacks against governmental, international as well as civilian targets, many of them in
the capital Kabul. The so-called Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) continued to engage in fighting against both the
government and the Taliban, mostly in the eastern province of Nangarhar. ISKP also conducted the deadliest attack in Kabul
since 2001, when on July 23 two suicide bombers killed 80 people and injured at least 230 during a protest of mostly Hazara
people in Kabul. According to the UN, the number of civilian casualties in Afghanistan increased by three percent compared
to last year, with a total of 3,498 civilian fatalities and 7,920 injured in the course of the conflicts.
Syria remained the country with the most fatalities in all its conflicts combined. The government of President Bashar al-Assad,
backed by Russia, Iran and Shiite militias, made major territorial gains in the conflict with various opposition groups [→ Syria
(opposition)]. After heavy fighting, the government retook Syria's second largest city and economical center Aleppo in December.
The opposition conflict also had an impact on the territorial conflict between Syria and Israel, due to cross-border shelling
[→ Syria – Israel]. The violence between the opposition groups escalated to a war. Especially Jabhat al-Nusra was involved in
inter-opposition fighting, mainly affecting the governorates of Damascus and Idlib [→ Syria (inter-opposition violence)].
The war with the so-called Islamic State (IS) had the biggest impact on the conflict landscape in the Middle East and Maghreb
[→ Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. IS had to face significant territorial losses within its core in Syria and Iraq. Throughout the year, they
lost ground against Kurdish groups in the northern Syrian governorates Raqqa and Aleppo, and lost their last connection to
the Turkish border, due to the advance of the Turkish backed oppositional Free Syrian Army offensive ''Euphrates Shield.''
However, IS could retake Palmyra, Homs governorate, from government troops. In Iraq, the territorial losses of IS were even
more significant than in Syria. The group was driven out of almost all of al-Anbar Governorate and Diyala Governorate, but
remained in control of parts of Nineveh, Kirkuk, and Salahuddin governorates. In October, the government started to retake
the country's second largest city Mosul, backed by Kurdish Peshmerga, Shiite militias and US-coalition airstrikes.
In Israel, the two violent crises regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state continued [→ Israel (Hamas et al. / Palestinian
territories); Israel (PNA / Palestinian Territories)]. Violence between Hamas as well as other militant groups, on the one
hand, and the Israeli government, on the other, mostly consisted of rockets being fired from Gaza towards Israeli territory
that prompted Israeli airstrikes in reaction, and violent clashes in proximity to Gaza's border fence. The conflict between the
Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and the government as well as Israeli settlement movements mostly took place in the
West Bank, Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and the Central District. Attacks of Palestinian ''lone wolfs” on Israeli civilians and security
forces, and Israeli raids in the West Bank accounted for the majority of violent incidents. On December 23, UNSC passed a
resolution regarding the ongoing building of Israeli settlements in the Palestinian West Bank, declaring the process a violation
of international law and a major obstacle to a two-state-solution. In Lebanon, the limited war between Sunni militants, mainly
Jabhat al-Nusra, on the one hand, and the government and Shiite militia Hezbollah, on the other, decreased to a violent crisis
[→ Lebanon (Sunni militant groups)]. Furthermore, Lebanon was affected by the conflicts in Syria. Violence concentrated
in the border region with Syria, especially around the cities of Arsal, Baalbek, and Ras Baalbek in Beqaa governorate, where
IS and Jabhat al-Nusra frequently clashed about establishing footholds. Meanwhile, a wide coalition, including members of
the March 8 and the March 14 alliances, elected Michel Aoun for president, ending a two-year power vacuum [→ Lebanon
(March 14 Alliance – March 8 Alliance)]. In Egypt, violence mainly occurred on the Sinai Peninsula. The conflict between IS'
Sinai Province and the government continued [→ Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. Also, the limited war between Islamist groups such as
Ajnad Misr and the government maintained its intensity [→ Egypt (Islamist groups / Sinai Peninsula)]. While the government
extended the region's state of emergency and conducted intensive operations in order to weaken Islamist militants' presence,
both Islamist groups and IS mainly attacked security checkpoints and maintained their strongholds in the region. IS claimed
responsibility for a bombing of the Coptic church Botroseya in the capital Cairo on December 11 that killed at least 25 civilians.
Two new militant groups emerged in the opposition conflict, Hasm Movement and Lewaa al-Thawra, which conducted
attacks against government affiliates and security personnel [→ Egypt (opposition)].
In Turkey, the conflict between opposition groups and the government escalated from a violent crisis to a war. During the
coup-attempt by parts of the Turkish Armed Forces in mid-July, at least 241 persons were killed and over 1,400 injured.
Subsequently, the government accused the US-based Islamic scholar Fethullah Gülen of being responsible for the coup and
announced a three-month state of emergency, which was extended until 01/19/17. The war between the Kurdistan Workers'
Party (PKK) and the government continued. By the end of the year, at least 540 security personnel, 2,241 militants as well as
173 civilians were killed. Furthermore, the conflict was exacerbated by several bomb attacks from PKK's splinter group the
Kurdistan Freedom Falcons, which in contrast to PKK mainly conducted attacks in urban areas. Also, IS members conducted
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