ConflictBarometer_2016

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Social Action, and stole pension payments. On September 8,
ten members of RENAMO attacked a police station in Lulute,
Nangade district, Cabo Delgado province, killing the local police
chief.
In the first half of 2016, the government reintroduced measures
targeting RENAMO in Sofala, Zambezia, Nampula and
Niassa. On March 27, police raided the party's headquarters
as well as two ofits leaders' houses in the capital Maputo
and seized 47 guns. Throughout April, 15 members of RE-
NAMO as well as one soldier were killed in clashes, while another
three soldiers were wounded. On September 9, military
forces took over a major RENAMO base in Sabe, reportedly
killing eight people. Mozambican refugees in Malawi reported
that soldiers had tortured and sexually abused alleged
RENAMO supporters. Many of them also claimed that FRE-
LIMO members had set fire to their houses and killed members
of their families on suspicion of hosting members of RE-
NAMO. Tete provincial police denied those claims.
In July, talks started between RENAMO and FRELIMO, assisted
by mediators from the EU, regional partners, and the Catholic
Church. RENAMO demanded autonomous governance in the
central and northern provinces of Manica, Sofala, Tete, Zambezia,
Nampula and Niassa, where it claimed to have won the
2014 elections. After the talks were temporarily put on hold
in July, both sides informally agreed that governors should be
chosen locally in late October. There was, however, no further
progress and the international mediators left the country
during the first week of December. Mario Raffaelli, their coordinator,
made clear that they would only return in answer to
a formal invitation from both FRELIMO and RENAMO. joh
NIGER (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2009
results, accusing the government of vote manipulation, and
proclaimed a boycott of the second round on March 8. On
March 15, authorities arrested Doudou Rahama, a member
of the opposition party Democratic and Social Convention-
Rahama (CDS), for calling his supporters not to vote for Issoufou.
In the second round of election on March 20, Issoufou was
reelected with 92.51 percent of the vote. Nine days later,
Amadou was provisionally released from prison. On March
30, the COPA reaffirmed their denial of Issoufou's second
presidency, demanding new elections and the clarification of
the judicial situation of Amadou. Three days later, opposition
groups started a two-week boycott of state institutions. Despite
Issoufou's proposal for a government of national unity
in late March, he formed his new government mainly with
members of the ruling PNDS on April 11. On August 13, the
National Movement for the Development of Society (MNSD),
one of the two main opposition parties, quit the opposition
to join agovernment of national unity. In reaction, on August
31, ten opposition parties established anew political
platform, demanding democratic reforms and criticizing Issoufou's
perceived dictatorial rule. On October 4, the local
elections, originally scheduled for January 2017, were postponed
by the National Council for Political Dialogue, which
opposition members denounced as illegal.
Moreover, authorities arrested and convicted several journalists,
anti-government protesters, and opposition politicians
throughout the year. For instance, on June 4, three journalists
were arrested for publishing documents about afraud
in the public health ministry's hiring process involving the
president's wife. On July 12, seven MODEN members, who
had been detained in November 2015, were sentenced to ten
months in prison on charges of ''armed gathering” and were
released in mid-September. mme
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
opposition groups vs. government
national power
The violent crisis over national power between opposition
groups, such as the main opposition party Nigerien Democratic
Movement (MODEN), and the government led by President
Mahamadou Issoufou and his Nigerien Party for Democracy
and Socialism (PNDS) continued.
Ahead of the presidential elections, on January 11, the appeals
court rejected the demand for the release of Hama
Amadou, the leader of MODEN and second-time presidential
candidate. He had been in prison since November 2015 on
charges of baby trafficking.
On February 2and 3, Amadou supporters clashed with security
forces, the latter using tear gas during rallies in the capital
Niamey. No casualties were reported. Two weeks later, the
Independent National Electoral Commission authorized the
vote by witness, which the opposition denounced as away
to enable fraud.
Presidential elections that took place in stages between late
February and late March were carried out peacefully. On
February 21, Issoufou won the first round of the elections with
48.41 percent of the votes, while Amadou gained 17.41 percent.
Two days later, the Coalition for Political Change in Niger
(COPA), comprising the main opposition parties, rejected the
78
NIGERIA (FARMERS – PASTORALISTS)
Intensity: 5 | Change: | Start: 1960
Conflict parties: farmers vs. pastoralists
Conflict items: subnational predominance, resources
The conflict over resources and subnational predominance
between farmers and pastoralists continued at war level for
the fifth consecutive year.
While the conflict mainly revolved around issues of the control
over arable land and cattle, it was further fuelled by differences
concerning political, ethnic, and religious issues
between the predominantly Christian farmers of Berom and
Tiv tribes, on the one hand, and the mainly Muslim Fulani
nomads, on the other. In total, violence between farmers and
pastoralists accounted for 1,135 conflict-related deaths. As