ConflictBarometer_2016

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ASIA AND OCEANIA As in the last years, the government and the opposition in Bangladesh clashed over elections, which together with intraopposition clashes, left more than 63 dead and at least 1,144 injured [→ Bangladesh (opposition)]. Furthermore, Islamist violence continued, mainly targeting secular bloggers, Hindus, Shiites, and non-Muslim foreigners [→ Bangladesh (Islamist groups)]. On July 1, IS claimed to have carried out its most fatal attack so far in Bangladesh when they took hostages in a café, resulting in 29 deaths, among them 20 civilians, most of them foreigners, while over 30 were injured. In India, the conflict over ideology and the political system between the Naxalites and the government escalated to a limited war, thereby becoming one of the most violent conflicts in the South Asia region [→India (Naxalites)]. Naxalites increasingly targeted civilians, often accusing them of being police informers. In this year, more than 360 conflict-related deaths occurred, which marked a significant rise compared to last year. Moreover, various militant groups continued their violent struggle for secession [→ India (GNLA et al. / Meghalaya); India (Manipur); India (NSCN factions et al. / Nagaland); India (ULFA-I et al. / Assam)]. Furthermore, three autonomy conflicts de-escalated to a non-violent level [→ India (HPC-D factions / Mizoram, Manipur, Assam); India (PULF); India (TJAC / Telangana)]. Incidents of communal violence between Hindus and Muslims took place throughout the year [→ India (Hindus – Muslims)]. Several cases of violence against Muslims in connection to cattle trade or the consumption of beef were reported. In November, a proposal for a uniform civil code caused tensions. Demands for socio-economic benefits under the Indian reservation system were raised by several communities, leading to protests, which often turned violent [→ India (Patels et al.)]. In February, demands by the Jat community sparked a week-long violent protest, which spread to multiple states. Clashes between security forces and local protesters in Kashmir Valley over the killing of militants in security operations continued for months, leaving several thousand civilians injured [→ India (Kashmir)]. Relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated with the halt of bilateral talks in connection to two Islamist militant attacks on Indian army bases [→ India (JeM et al.–Kashmir); India (Islamist militant groups)]. Army skirmishes in the contested border area of Jammu and Kashmir state continued, causing thousands of civilians on both sides to flee their homes. Additionally, tension over water distribution between both states increased [→ Pakistan – India]. In Pakistan, Islamist militants continued to target religious minorities, security forces, and educational institutions [→ Pakistan (Sunni militants – religious groups]. Pakistani officials warned about IS' alleged influence among members of other militant groups, while IS claimed responsibility for several attacks. The counter-terrorism campaign ''Zarb-e-Azb” launched in 2014 was preliminarily completed in April. However, security operations continued in several provinces and airstrikes resumed in the second half of the year [→ Pakistan (Islamist militants)].The conflict over secession in Balochistan province de-escalated to a violent crisis [→ Pakistan (Baloch nationalists / Balochistan)]. In Central Asia, two violent crises between various Islamist groups and the respective governments of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan were observed. In June, 25 Islamist militants attacked two gun shops and a military facility in the Kazakh city of Aqtobe, leaving three security forces, five civilians, and 18 suspected Islamist militants dead. This was the most fatal Islamist attack since the country's independence [→ Kazakhstan (Islamist groups)]. In Tajikistan, Islamist militants crossing the porous border to Afghanistan continued to be perceived as a security threat by the government. This prompted the Tajik government to seek international cooperation, target alleged followers of extremist groups, and restrict practice of Islam in everyday life [→ Tajikistan (Islamist groups)]. Moreover, the conflict between the opposition and the Kazakh government escalated to a non-violent crisis against the backdrop of protests against a planned land privatization reform and the subsequent crackdown on opposition activists [→ Kazakhstan (opposition)]. The non-violent crisis between various opposition groups and the Kyrgyz government was marked by alleged attempts to overthrow the government and subsequent detention of several opposition leaders [→ Kyrgyzstan (opposition)]. The conflict over international power, water resources, and territory between Uzbekistan, on the one hand, and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, on the other, escalated to a non-violent crisis [→ Uzbekistan – Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan]. CONFLICT INTENSITIES IN ASIA AND OCEANIA IN 2016 COMPARED TO 2015 FREQUENCY OF CONFLICT ITEMS IN ASIA AND OCEANIA IN 2016 BY INTENSITY GROUPS 2015: 2016: high intensity medium intensity low intensity 66 21 23 56 19 14 14 20 35 31 25 4 6 2 1 2 1 10 territory 1 11 4 secession 0 0 0 1 11 decolonisation autonomy 2 1 9 8 system / ideology national power 3 12 1 1 8 subnational predominance international power 3 11 resources 0 7 9 other dispute non-violent crisis violent crisis limited war war 130
Overview: Conflicts in Asia and Oceania in 2016 ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1 Conflict parties 2 Conflict items Start Change 3 Int. 4 Bangladesh (Chittagong Hill Tracts) Bangladesh (inter-militant rivalry / Chittagong Hill Tracts)* Bangladesh (Islamist groups) Bengali settlers vs. PCJSS, UDPF, Jummas vs. government autonomy, subnational predominance, resources 1971 3 PCJSS-SL vs. UPDF subnational predominance 1997 3 Hindus, Christians, Buddhists vs. ABT, AAI, JMB, HuT, HuJI-B, IS, et al. vs. government system/ideology, subnational predominance Bangladesh (opposition) BNP, JeI vs. government system/ideology, national power 1971 3 1991 3 Bangladesh (RMG workers)* RMG workers vs. government other 2006 3 Cambodia (opposition)* CNRP, civil society groups vs. CPP system/ideology, national power, resources 1997 3 Cambodia – Vietnam* Cambodia vs. Vietnam territory 1969 1 China (Christians)* Government vs. Christians system/ideology 1949 3 China (Falun Gong et al.)* Falun Gong vs. government system/ideology 1999 3 China (Han – Hui – Tibetans vs. Hui vs. Han subnational predominance 1949 1 Tibetans)* China (Hong Kong) pro-democracy groups, autonomy, system/ideology 1997 3 pro-independence groups vs. government, SAR government China (Inner Mongolia)* Mongolian ethnic minorities vs. government, Han Chinese autonomy, subnational predominance, resources 1981 3 China (opposition)* opposition groups vs. government system/ideology 1978 1 China (socioeconomic environmentalists, factory workers, resources, other 1978 3 protests) peasants et al. vs. government China (Taiwan – opposition)* opposition, ROC government system/ideology 2014 1 China (Taiwan) ROC vs. PRC secession, system/ideology 1949 2 China (Tibet) CTA, Tibetans, TYC vs. government autonomy, system/ideology, resources China (Uyghurs / Xinjiang) ETIM, WUC, Uyghurs vs. government, Han China – India PRC vs. India territory, international power, resources 1950 3 secession, resources 1949 3 China – USA PRC vs. USA system/ideology, international power China – Vietnam et al. (South China Sea) Fiji (Indo-Fijians – indigenous Fijian ethnonationalists)* PRC vs. Vietnam vs. Brunei vs. Malaysia vs. ROC vs. Philippines vs. Indonesia territory, international power, resources 1954 2 1949 2 1949 3 Indo-Fijians vs. indigenous Fijians subnational predominance 1970 1 Fiji (opposition)* opposition vs. government system/ideology, national power 1987 2 Fiji – Tonga (Minerva Reefs)* Fiji vs. Tonga territory 2005 1 India (GJM et al. / West GJM, GNLF, JAP, AIGL vs. government autonomy 1907 2 Bengal) India (GNLA et al. / Meghalaya) GNLA, HNLC, UALA, AMEF, ASAK, ARA, LAEF, ANVC-B, ANVC vs. government secession 1992 3 India (Hindus – Christians)* Hindus, RSS, Bajrang Dal, Shiv Sena, ABHM, VHP vs. Christians subnational predominance 1999 3 India (Hindus – Muslims) Hindus vs. Muslims subnational predominance 1947 3 India (HPC-D factions / HPC-D Zosangbera faction, HPC-D autonomy 1986 1 Mizoram, Manipur, Assam)* Sanate faction vs. government India (inter-ethnic rivalry / Assam) India (inter-factional rivalry / Nagaland)* Bangladeshi immigrants vs. Assamese, Indigenous groups, AASU, PVM vs. MTF vs. Adivasi vs. Dimasa, Karbi vs. Bodo vs. ULFA-I vs. Hindi-speaking population NSCN-K vs. NSCN-IM vs. NSCN-KK vs. NSCN-R subnational predominance 1979 3 subnational predominance 1988 2 131
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2016 disputes non-violent crises vi
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CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2016 Analyzed
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AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
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Since 1991, quantitative conflict r
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Evaluated is the overall number of
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2016 (SUBNATIO
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GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT In 2016, the HII
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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA DISTRIBUTI
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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA INTERSTATE
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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA In total,
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NEGOTIATIONS AND TREATIES In 2016,
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION ern
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION 201
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION REG
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Equ
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2016
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EUROPE of a Cypriot reunification i
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EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
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EUROPE The Azerbaijani army alleged
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EUROPE population of the city Vukov
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EUROPE While GD repeatedly accused
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EUROPE LATVIA (RUSSIAN-SPEAKING MIN
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EUROPE ing the ''gay propaganda”
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EUROPE RUSSIA - UKRAINE (CRIMEA) In
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EUROPE SWEDEN (XENOPHOBES) Intensit
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UKRAINE (DONBAS) January February M
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EUROPE UKRAINE (OPPOSITION) Intensi
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EUROPE dent, declared that ''Anacon
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN SUB-SAHARAN AF
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Democratic Force
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ANGOLA (UNITA) I
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Nevertheless, ex
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to strengthen Ou
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA thorities. Follo
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA against Mayi-May
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA force, known as
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA GUINEA (OPPOSITI
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MALI (INTER-MILI
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Page 83 and 84: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA of the PDP in Po
Page 85 and 86: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Nyamwasa, living
Page 87 and 88: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOMALIA, KENYA (
Page 89 and 90: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA lic debate about
Page 91 and 92: SOUTH SUDAN (SPLM/A - IN - OPPOSITI
Page 93 and 94: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA near Yei town. O
Page 95 and 96: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA such as cattle,
Page 97 and 98: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Panel on Sudan e
Page 99 and 100: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA clashed. The fig
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Page 103 and 104: the Americas
Page 105 and 106: THE AMERICAS The overall number of
Page 107 and 108: Overview: Conflicts in the Americas
Page 109 and 110: THE AMERICAS Alan Duncan stateda''p
Page 111 and 112: THE AMERICAS Rousseff until a final
Page 113 and 114: THE AMERICAS COLOMBIA (ELN) Intensi
Page 115 and 116: THE AMERICAS 20 transitory demilita
Page 117 and 118: THE AMERICAS ment, 3,517 alleged me
Page 119 and 120: THE AMERICAS Morales, declared that
Page 121 and 122: THE AMERICAS ily concerned with hig
Page 123 and 124: THE AMERICAS spite renewed federal
Page 125 and 126: THE AMERICAS NICARAGUA (OPPOSITION)
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Page 129 and 130: Asia and Oceania
Page 131: ASIA AND OCEANIA With 123 conflicts
Page 135 and 136: ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
Page 137 and 138: ASIA AND OCEANIA BANGLADESH (CHITTA
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Page 141 and 142: ASIA AND OCEANIA monastery in Dragg
Page 143 and 144: ASIA AND OCEANIA sia off the coast
Page 145 and 146: ASIA AND OCEANIA Militant Bodos, ma
Page 147 and 148: ASIA AND OCEANIA Kitovi (NSCN-KK),
Page 149 and 150: ASIA AND OCEANIA INDONESIA (AHMADI)
Page 151 and 152: ASIA AND OCEANIA upon the internati
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Page 155 and 156: ASIA AND OCEANIA mine against the r
Page 157 and 158: ASIA AND OCEANIA tillery strike aga
Page 159 and 160: PAKISTAN (ISLAMIST MILITANT GROUPS)
Page 161 and 162: ASIA AND OCEANIA PAKISTAN - INDIA I
Page 163 and 164: ASIA AND OCEANIA sisted by the army
Page 165 and 166: ASIA AND OCEANIA ers for forced and
Page 167 and 168: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAS
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ernorate, k
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB eight execu
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB for the ass
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB prisoners o
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Starting Au
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB manufacturi
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB from streng
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB entering th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB it for anot
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB sanctions o
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB temporary c
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IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
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eidelerg Institute for Internationa
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