ConflictBarometer_2016

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
of Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid on March 25. On April 25, EAF
killed 30 militants, conducting airstrikes in Sheikh Zuweid
and al-Toma village, North Sinai Governorate. Militants killed
eight police officers in an attack on their minibus with automatic
rifles near the city of Helwan, Cairo Governorate, on
May 8. Continuing the ''Operation Martyr's Right”, EAF killed
85 militants between May 22 and May 25 in the cities of Rafah
and Sheikh Zuweid. Additionally, EAF destroyed 73 hideouts,
57 homes, and 15 vehicles. The operation had been launched
on 09/07/15 in order to weaken militant Islamist presence
on the Sinai Peninsula. On June 2, EAF continued the operation,
killing 22 militants in raids in Abu Zamat, al-Shallaq, Khat
al-Gouz, and Qabr Emeir, North Sinai Governorate. One day
later, militants attacked the Masa'ed-Sheikh Zuweid power
line in North Sinai, causing a blackout in the areas of Rafah
and Sheikh Zuweid. On July 11, militants killed two policemen
and wounded three by using a roadside bomb in al-Arish.
During shootings in al-Arish on September 22 and 28, militants
killed one civilian and four policemen, and wounded
four. After another attack of IS members on a security checkpoint
in Bir al-Abd city, North Sinai Governorate, on October
14, EAF resumed ''Operation Martyr's Right” between October
16 and November 13, killing at least 68 militants in air
and ground operations in North Sinai. On November 24, militants
attacked a checkpoint in al-Arish by using RPGs and
killed at least three policemen and wounded seven. During
raids in al-Arish, Rafah, and Sheikh Zuweid on December
6, EAF killed eight militants and destroyed IEDs planted on
frequently used highways. ppr
EGYPT (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1954
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
MB, HM, Lewaa al-Thawra, Popular Resistance
Movement, civil rights activists
vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The violent crisis over national power and the orientation of
the political system between opposition groups, mainly the
Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and civil rights activists, on the one
hand, and the government, on the other, continued.
In the course of the year, 24 people were killed in gun battles
or bomb attacks, while at least 18 got injured and hundreds
arrested.
Throughout the year, the government continued judicial prosecution
of opposition members. On February 3, a court of appeal
in the capital Cairo, Cairo Governorate, temporarily suspended
the mass death sentences handed down to 149 MB
supporters, who were accused of killing eleven police officers
during riots in July 2013, and reopened the proceedings.
In another case, a military court sentenced eight persons to
death and another 18 to longtime prison terms for being affiliated
with the MB on May 29. The head of the National Union
of Journalists, Yehia Qallash, and two board members were
sentenced to two years in prison on November 19 for harboring
two wanted journalists and inciting protests against President
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. On November 22, the Cassation
176
Court overturned the life sentence handed down to ousted
president Mohamed Morsi and 26 other MB members, and a
retrial was ordered.
As in previous years, violence erupted between opposition
groups and security forces. When security forces raided a
suspected militants' hideout in Cairo on January 21, a bomb
exploded, killing at least six and injuring more than 13. The
MB was held responsible for the attack. Protests on January
25, commemorating the fifth anniversary of the uprisings
in January 2011, were mostly headed by the MB.
Thousands of policemen dispersed numerous unapproved
protests across the country, especially in Cairo. On April 15
and 25, security forces dissolved further protests against al-
Sisi in Cairo, Alexandria Governorate and Aswan Governorate,
using tear gas and rubber bullets, and additionally arrested
238 protesters. On May 8, four members of the Popular Resistance
Movement, which had allegedly evolved from the MB
in 2014, killed eight policemen, using machine guns in Helwan,
Cairo Governorate. On October 3, forces subordinated to
the Egyptian Interior Ministry killed Mohamed Kamal, member
of the MB's top leadership council, and another MB member,
while raiding an apartment in Cairo.
In the second half of the year, two groups allegedly associated
with the MB, namely Hasm Movement (HM) and Lewaa
al-Thawra, emerged, conducting attacks against government
officials and public figures. On August 5, four HM gunmen attempted
to kill former grand mufti Ali Gomaa in Cairo. However,
Gomaa remained unharmed, while a security guard was
injured. On October 22, Lewaa al-Thawra fighters killed Army
Brigade General Adel Ragaie and his driver in Obour City, Al-
Qalyubia Governorate. The group issued a statement declaring
the attack to be a retaliatory act for the death of former MB
senior leader Mohamed Kamal who had been killed by security
forces on October 3. HM members killed six policemen
and wounded another three in Giza, Al-Jizah Governorate, using
a roadside bomb on December 9.
On January 10, the new parliament assembled for the first
time after the parliamentary elections, which were held at the
end of 2015. swe
IRAN (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1993
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
opposition vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The violent crisis over the orientation of the political system
and national power between opposition groups and the government
continued. As in previous years, opposition activists
as well as journalists faced arrest and imprisonment. For the
fifth year in a row, leaders of the oppositional Green Movement,
Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hussein Moussavi, both candidates
in the presidential elections of 2009, remained under
house arrest in the capital Tehran without being charged.
Ahead of the national elections for Parliament and for the Assembly
of Experts on February 26, the Council of Guardians
(CoG) disqualified approx. 40 percent of the 12,123 applicants
that had registered for running for the parliamentary
election. Also, it only qualified 161 of 794 candidates run-