ConflictBarometer_2016

ASIA AND OCEANIA
PAKISTAN – INDIA
Intensity: 4 | Change: | Start: 1947
Conflict parties:
Pakistan vs. India
Conflict items: territory, international power, resources
159
The conflict between Pakistan and India over international
power, water distribution, and the status of the Kashmir region
escalated toalimited war.
Starting from April 9, Indian and Pakistani soldiers violated
the 2003 ceasefire agreement at least 45 times along the
contested Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border
(IB) of Jammu and Kashmir state (J&K). In 35 of these skirmishes
both armies used heavy weapons such as mortars,
killing at least 83 people, among them 13 Indian soldiers,
twelve Indian civilians, as well as twelve Pakistani soldiers
and 46 Pakistani civilians. At least 210 people from both
sides were injured. Pakistan claimed to have killed another
31 Indian soldiers, whereas India claimed to have killed an
additional seven Pakistani soldiers. Both sides denied those
fatalities. Except for two, all casualties occurred after September
28, when Indian soldiers crossed the LoC into Pakistanadministered
J&K, conducting targeted strikes in response to
a militant attack on an army base in the city of Uri, Indianadministered
J&K, on September 18 [→ India (Kashmir)]. Pakistan
denied that those strikes had happened, while Pakistan
media reports only spoke of ceasefire violations. According
to Indian media reports approx. 27,500 civilians fled the contested
border area on the Indian side, while according to CNN
at least 8,000 residents on the Pakistani side left their homes
due to heavy shelling along the LoC and IB in the months of
October and November.
The series of bilateral talks at the end of 2015 came toahalt
after amilitant attack on January 2on an Indian Air Force
base in Pathankot, Punjab province [→ India (Islamist militant
groups)]. The first secretary level meeting took place on
March 17, when Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and
her Pakistani counterpart Sartaj Aziz met during the South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit
in Pokhara, Nepal, discussing their cooperation regarding further
investigations of the Pathankot militant attack. On April
26, Foreign Secretary of Pakistan Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry and
his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met in New
Delhi during the Heart of Asia conference, trying to revive the
bilateral talks between the two states. Following the attack
in Uri on September 18, bilateral talks stopped. On September
27, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that he
would not attend the 19th SAARC summit in Pakistan's capital
Islamabad in November. Furthermore, on October 27, both
governments expelled diplomats from the other state under
accusation of espionage and terrorism. Although both states
sent delegations to the Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar,
Punjab, India, on December 4, Indian Minister of External Affairs
Vikas Swarup stated on December2that India would not
engage in bilateral talks with Pakistan in aclimate of continued
terrorism.
On September 26, in the course of the heightened tensions
along the contested border area, Modi began to openly discuss
the building of new dams along Chenab river and its tributary
Marusadar river. Pakistan opposed the plans and stated
that the revocation of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) could be
interpreted as a hostile act against Pakistan. Both states initiated
separate proceedings in the World Bank (WB) under
the IWT, which regulates the distribution of water in that region
since 1960: While India requested the appointment of a
Neutral Expert, Pakistan called for a Court of Arbitration. On
December 12, Jim Yong Kim, President of the WB, announced
to pause the latter to find alternative approaches to resolve
the issue.
jam
PAPUA NEW GUINEA (TRIBAL VIOLENCE)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1975
Conflict parties: vs. Amari vs. Atzera; et al.
Conflict items: subnational predominance, resources
The violent crisis between various tribes over subnational
predominance and resources, such as gas, oil, copper, and
gold, continued.
Throughout the year, tribe members clashed in various locations.
For instance, on April 27, an argument between a
vendor and a student at Mutzing Market, Markham Valley in
Morobe Province resulted in aclash between the Amari and
the Atzera tribes. The fighting left three Amari members dead.
During the following three months, four people were arrested
due toasuspected involvement in the clash.
However, violent encounters concentrated in Hela Province,
hosting one of the most profitable Exxon-Mobil Liquefied Natural
Gas (LNG) projects of the country. Throughout the year,
spontaneous violent incidents between alleged warring tribe
members were carried out around the provincial capital Tari,
reportedly leaving several dead and injured. For instance, after
the convoy of the provincial governor was stopped and
shot at in an alleged case of tribal violence in Komo, on
November 28, the attackers and security personnel engaged
in afirefight, leaving two people dead and one injured. Subsequently,
police burnt down around 200 houses in the area
in search for the attackers. On December 10, one member
of a Kikita clan faction was allegedly shot by a hostile Kikita
faction member. The next day, members of the faction of the
one killed arrived with two vehicles at a market in Tari and
started shooting into the crowd, as well as into the nearby police
station, killing at least two people. Moreover, the armed
tribesmen tried to seize a supermarket, after stating that the
owner allegedly supported the rivalling faction. Police forces
were reportedly outnumbered and held at gunpoint. As police
reinforcement approached, the attackers left the scene.
On December 28, a joint police and military operation was
launched in order to address the recent outbreak of tribal violence
in Hela as well as to protect the LNG project and in