ConflictBarometer_2016

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Nyamwasa, living in exile in South Africa, accused Rwandan
President Paul Kagame of being linked to the shooting
down of the plane carrying Habyarimana. Kagame claimed
the plane had been shot down by Habyarimana's own supporters
who disapproved of a peace deal Juvenal had negotiated
with Kagame's fighters. A 2012 report by France had
previously cleared Kagame of the charges. The investigation
was first opened in 1998 and closed twice before, but now
reopened after Nyamwasa requested to be heard by French
officials. On October 11, Kagame stated that the judicial system
of Rwanda was not subordinate to France or France's interests.
On October 31, the Rwandan National Commission for the
Fight against Genocide released a document naming 22
French military officers claiming they had acted as perpetrators
and accomplices during the genocide. In late November,
Rwanda opened a formal investigation into the case of 20
French officials claiming they were suspected of involvement
in the genocide of 1994. fb
Markab town resumed, causing many residents to flee their
homes temporarily. Between September 25 and 29, a meeting
hosted by AMISOM and the South Western Somalia Federal
Authority attended by representatives of both clans took
place in the capital Mogadishu. The clans agreed to remove
their clan militias and to deploy police forces in the region to
limit any violence. Officials attending the conference urged
the federal government and the international community to
help end clan violence. Subsequently, on October 3, the AU
deployed peacekeepers to the region. loc
SOMALIA (HAWADLE – SURRE / HIIRAAN)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2012
Conflict parties:
Hawadle militias vs. Surre militias
Conflict items: subnational predominance, resources
SOMALIA (HABR GEDIR – BIYMAL / LOWER
SHABELLE)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2013
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Habr Gedir militias vs. Biymal militias
subnational predominance
The violent crisis over subnational predominance between
the Habr Gedir clan and the Biymal clan in the Lower Shabelle
state continued. Tensions rose when the Habr Gedir settled
in the region after the Somali civil war, which was the ancestral
homeland of the Biymal.
In recent years, Lower Shabelle was increasingly affected by
fighting between al-Shabaab and Somali government troops,
impacting the ongoing clan conflict in the region [→ Somalia
(al-Shabaab)]. Reports early this year stated that clans had
provided large sums of money and fighters to al-Shabaab to
fight against AMSIOM forces stationed in the region. In late
February, the al-Shabaab governor of Lower Shabelle, Ibrahim
Aden Ali alias Najah, held reconciliation meetings with clan
elders from both sides over clashes in Marka town.
On January 3, factions of government troops engaged in internal
clashes along clan lines in Baraawe district, leaving at
least four people dead and more than ten injured. On April
16, fighting broke out between the two clans in and around
Marka. In the following days, ensuing clashes and retaliation
attacks resulted in the death of at least 13 people and the
burning of several houses on both sides. Clan elders from
both sides and regional administrators held a reconciliation
conference on April 25 in Marka in order to settle the ongoing
fighting. Heavy fighting broke out again on June 18 in
Marka, leaving at least five militants dead and several more
injured. Stray bullets also injured many civilians. Five days
later, clashes erupted near Afgove village, resulting in one
death and another injured. Local elders intervened to reduce
the tension in the area. In September, fighting reportedly occurred
on September 7, 10, and 14. However, no casualties
were reported. On September 29, fighting over control of
The violent crisis over subnational predominance and grazing
grounds between the Hawadle clan and the Dir sub-clan Surre
in the Hiiraan region continued.
Fighting between the al-Shabaab militia and government
forces in Hiiraan further affected clan relationships in the region,
with clans supporting both sides of the fighting [→ Somalia
(al-Shabaab)].
Throughout the year, isolated incidents of clan violence occurred.
On January 1, clan militias clashed in Bu'qowsar village.
At least three people were killed and more than ten injured.
At the end of March, fighting broke out between the
two clans in and around Beledweyne town, leaving one injured.
On March 31, the federal government gave the clans a
48-hour ultimatum to lay down their weapons. On April 13,
the two warring clans held a reconciliation meeting in Beledweyne.
However, fighting between the two clans erupted
the next day on the town's outskirts over grazing land, leaving
ten dead and dozens wounded. Fighting over grazing
grounds between May 17 and 25 left at least 17 people dead
and many more injured in Beledweyne. Hundreds of civilians
were forced to flee the area as floods aggravated the situation.
The AU sent troops into the region and clan elders
urged both sides to come together and agree on an immediate
ceasefire. On May 27, members of the federal government
led mediation efforts between the two clans in Beledweyne.
In October and November, three deadly attacks on individuals
were committed in Beledweyne area. Clan leaders
stated that they were linked to clan rivalries. On November
22, fighting broke out again between the two parties. The federal
government immediately attempted to initiate mediation
talks. During the ongoing clashes, several militants sustained
injuries on November 25, while clan members wounded two
AU peace-keepers one day later. On the same day, both sides
signed a preliminary ceasefire, which was transformed into an
unconditional ceasefire on December 14.
Another important point of contention for clan elders was the
federal government's plan for unifying the regions of Hiiraan
and Middle Shabelle into one federal state. In mid-October,
representatives of both regions created the new state HirShabelle,
elected Jowhar town, Middle Shabelle, as capital, and
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