ConflictBarometer_2016

NEGOTIATIONS AND TREATIES
In 2016, negotiations in order to settle conflicts took place
in numerous countries. For instance, the Colombian government
reached an agreement with the country's largest rebel
group, the FARC, which included comprehensive measures
to end the over 50-year long lasting conflict. Additionally,
agreements were reached inter alia on the Philippines, in
Somalia, and in Sudan. However, various other attempts for
negotiated conflict settlements failed, such as negotiations
regarding the conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, India, and DR Congo.
EUROPE
In Europe, peace negotiations were held in the context of
the conflicts over the Donbas region and the Republic of
Nagorno-Karabakh (NKR). The negotiations resulted in temporary
ceasefires, but did not lead to substantial agreements.
After tensions along the the border between the NKR and
Azerbaijan increased in April, negotiations were initiated [→
Armenia – Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh)]. The
Presidents of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, and Azerbaijan, Ilham
Aliyev, met in Vienna, Austria, with OSCE representatives
on May 16. They reached an agreement that included
the renewal of the ceasefire and an enlargement of the OSCE
observer mission. However, the ceasefire was frequently violated.
Consequently, the presidents reconvened in St. Petersburg,
Russia, with Russian President Vladimir Putin mediating
the talks on June 20. The negotiations eased tensions until
December 29, when heavy fighting took place again.
During the war in Donbas region, the conflict parties agreed
on several ceasefires, but violated them on an almost daily
basis [→ Ukraine (Donbas)]. Throughout the year, officials of
Western countries and the EU undertook measures in order
to encourage the implementation of the Minsk II Agreement.
For instance, US Secretary of State John Kerry emphasized
the importance of the agreement's implementation, when he
met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Zurich,
Switzerland, on January 20. On May 11, the Normandy Quartet
met in the German capital Berlin and agreed on demilitarized
zones and additional security measures in Donbas. The
Trilateral Contact Group agreed on the withdrawal of troops
and weapons in order to facilitate the creation of security
zones in Donetsk and Luhansk. While this was implemented
in Donetsk, a withdrawal of troops was only partly enforced
in Luhansk.
MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION
SUB-SAHARAN AfRICA
In Sub-Saharan Africa, three negotiation rounds took place
regarding the conflict between the self-declared independent
state of Somaliland, the self-declared Khatumo State,
as well as the autonomous region of Puntland. Negotiations
centred around the status of the contested provinces of Sool,
Sanaag, and Taugher's Cayn section, but did not result in any
agreements. In contrast, a ceasefire was reached between
the Hawadle clan and the Dir sub-clan Surre in the Hiiraan
region [→ Somalia (Hawadle – Surre / Hiiraan)]. A reconciliation
meeting between both clans on April 13, government-led
mediation attempts in May, as well as AU appeals did not lead
to a ceasefire. However, clan elders agreed on a preliminary
ceasefire on November 26, which was transformed into an
unconditional ceasefire on December 14.
Furthermore, the Habr Gedir clan and the Biymal clan in Lower
Shabelle state agreed on a withdrawal of their militias from
the contested areas. Both clans participated in meetings
hosted by AMISOM and the South Western Somalia Federal
Authority in the capital Mogadishu between September 25
and 29. They agreed on the withdrawal of fighters and the
subsequent deployment of police forces to the region.
Most treaties within one conflict were signed between Sudan
and South Sudan. The conflict parties agreed on financial accords,
several security measures, and advanced in talks over
border demarcation. On February 3, both countries agreed
on lowering oil transmission fees, which was followed by the
resumption of oil trade and transport two days later, ending a
four-year halt of cross-border trade. Regarding the tense security
situation in the border region, the countries agreed on
the re-deployment of joint military forces along the Safe Demilitarized
Border Zone, a stop of harboring and supporting
armed groups, and the opening of several border crossings.
Subsequently, in late June, the countries requested the AU
to initiate a border demarcation process. Additionally, the
governments decided to establish direct means of communication.
Within the scope of the war between various armed groups
and the government in Sudan's Darfur region, the conflict
parties agreed to sign a peace deal that envisioned peace
talks for Darfur as well as for Blue Nile and South Kordofan
on October 30. However, both sides could not agree on a
bilateral ceasefire and declared unilateral ceasefires instead
[→ Sudan (SPLM/A-North / South Kordofan, Blue Nile)]. Several
Sudanese opposition groups and the government signed
this so-called ''Roadmap Agreement”. After the Sudanese
government had signed it on March 21, several opposition
groups followed and signed it on August 8. However, despite
having signed the agreement, SPLM/A-North, one of
the largest armed groups in Sudan, revoked its approval in
October, questioning the government's commitment to the
agreement. In the conflict between several Sudanese pastoralist
tribes and subtribes, Rizeigat and Ma'aliya clan representatives
reached a reconciliation accord. They agreed on
financial compensation after inter-clan fighting had left 20
people dead and 15 injured in East Darfur State on April 17.
In DRC, the Alliance of Patriots for a Free and Sovereign Congo
(APCLS) and the Nyatura militias signed a peace deal with the
government on August 23 [→ DR Congo (Mayi-Mayi et al.)].
They committed themselves to handing over their weapons
and surrendering to the Armed Forces of the DR Congo in return
for amnesty. However, Nyatura militias continued to conduct
violence against civilians during the following months.
After President Joseph Kabila had refused to step down after
the end of his second term, opposition groups and the government
agreed that Kabila would remain in office until newly
scheduled elections in 2017 [→ DR Congo (opposition)].
In Mozambique, talks between RENAMO and the government
started in July, after RENAMO had requested international
mediation in December 2015. RENAMO demanded
autonomous governance in several northern and central
provinces. Mediators from the EU, regional partners, as well
as the Catholic Church tried to facilitate an agreement, but
ultimately the conflict partners failed to reach a mutual understanding,
which led to the retreat of the international mediators
in December.
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