ConflictBarometer_2016

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
The number of conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa (94) increased by one in 2016, accounting for nearly a quarter of the world's
political conflicts. More than one third of the world's highly violent conflicts took place in Sub-Saharan Africa. A new conflict
erupted between opposition parties and the government of Gambia [→ Gambia (opposition)]. The number of limited wars
decreased from ten to seven, while the number of full-scale wars decreased from nine to seven. The war between Anti-Balaka
and ex-Séléka groups in the Central African Republic (CAR) and the inter-communal violence in Sudan de-escalated to the
level of a limited war [→ Central African Republic (anti-Balaka – ex-Séléka); Sudan (inter-communal violence)].
The war between Boko Haram and the governments of Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger continued for the sixth consecutive
year, while compared to 2015, the number of conflict-related deaths declined by 75 percent to 3,000 [Nigeria, Cameroon,
Chad, Niger (Boko Haram)]. Especially in Nigeria's neighboring countries, a significant decrease of the group's activities was
observed. Although the Nigerian government under President Muhammadu Buhari repeatedly claimed to have defeated Boko
Haram, the group continued to conduct large-scale attacks. Furthermore, the conflict between the ruling All Progressives
Congress and the People's Democratic Party escalated to a limited war, when several elections on the gubernatorial and local
level were accompanied by violent confrontations between supporters of both sides [→ Nigeria (northerners – southerners)].
The war over arable land in Nigeria's Middle Belt between the predominantly Christian farmers of Berom and Tiv tribes, on
the one hand, and the mainly Muslim Fulani nomads, on the other, continued [→ Nigeria (farmers – pastoralists)].
In Mali, the autonomy conflict between the Coordination of Movements of Azawad and the government de-escalated to a nonviolent
crisis [→ Mali (CMA et al. / Azawad)]. Throughout the year, both sides repeatedly held talks, but the implementation
of the June 2015 peace agreement advanced slowly due to inter-militant rivalries in the north [→ Mali (inter-militant rivalry)].
Moreover, compared to the previous year, the number of violent confrontations between al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
(AQIM) and its affiliated groups, on the one hand, and Malian and international forces, on the other, decreased, accounting
for at least 80 deaths [→ Algeria, Mali et al. (AQIM et al.)]. Nevertheless, in late June, the UNSC authorized the deployment
of 2,500 additional troops to MINUSMA, thereby increasing its strength to more than 10,000. Furthermore, AQIM carried out
attacks in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Côte d'Ivoire.
In Gambia, a new conflict between the opposition, led by the United Democratic Party (UDP), and the government under President
Yahya Jammeh erupted when UDP-organized protests for electoral reforms were cracked down by the police in April
and May [→ Gambia (opposition)]. Further violent opposition conflicts were observed in Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire,
Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, and Togo.
In the Horn of Africa, the war between the Islamist group al-Shabaab and the Somali and Kenyan governments continued
[→ Somalia, Kenya (al-Shabaab)]. As in previous years, al-Shabaab frequently attacked governmental and civilian targets in
Somalia as well as neighboring Kenya, attempting to gain territory. This was countered by joint forces from Somalia and the
African Union, with no conflict party making significant progress. In Galgaduud state, the militant group Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama'a
gained control over the towns of Dushamarreb and Gur'iel [→ Somalia (ASWJ)].
In the northern region of Somalia, the violent border conflict between the autonomous region of Puntland, the self-declared
Republic of Somaliland, and Khatumo State continued [→ Somalia (Khatumo State – Puntland – Somaliland)]. Inter-clan violence
in the central regions of Hiiraan and Lower Shabelle continued as violent crises, while the government and local clan
elders undertook efforts to stop the fighting, reaching agreements in both conflicts [→ Somalia (Habr Gedir – Biymal/ Lower
Shabelle); Somalia (Hawadle – Surre/ Hiiraan)]. In Kenya, inter-communal violence was less severe than in the previous years.
At the same time, tensions between the opposition and the government turned violent [→ Kenya (opposition)].
In Ethiopia, anti-government protests increased, with hundreds of thousands of protesters nationwide [→ Ethiopia (opposition)].
Moreover, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) continued to attack government
forces in Oromyia and Ogaden Regions, respectively [→ Ethiopia (OLF / Oromiya); Ethiopia (ONLF / Ogaden)].
Sudan and South Sudan continued to be highly affected by violence. However, the number of wars in the area decreased by
one to four. The war in South Sudan between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM/A) and its opposition faction
SPLM/A-In-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) continued, intensifying in the second half of the year after clashes had re-erupted in the
capital Juba [→ South Sudan (SPLM/A-in-Opposition)]. Fighting between the two groups took on an increasingly ethnic dimension,
with the UN and other international organizations warning of the possibility of a genocide. In Sudan, the wars in Darfur
and the so-called ''Two Areas” of Blue Nile and South Kordofan continued [→ Sudan (Darfur); Sudan (SPLM/A-North / South
Kordofan, Blue Nile)]. As in previous years, the government under President Omar al-Bashir conducted large-scale operations
against the armed groups in those peripheral regions, also targeting civilian areas. In the Nuba Mountains of Blue Nile State,
government forces allegedly used chemical weapons. Meanwhile, the conflict concerning inter-communal violence in Sudan's
conflict-affected regions de-escalated to a limited war in the context of attempts by the local administration to establish conflict
solving mechanisms [→ Sudan (inter-communal violence)]. The Sudanese government continued to strictly control access
to the conflict areas. In both Sudan and South Sudan, ongoing highly violent conflicts led to a severe food crisis. The three
UN-led missions UNMISS, UNISFA, and UNAMID were extended and continued to operate in South Sudan, Abyei, and Darfur.
The war between Anti-Balaka and ex-Séléka groups in the CAR de-escalated to a limited war for the first time since 2012.
Faustin Archange Touadera was elected as the new President in February and the last round of legislative elections were held
in May. Throughout the country, violence decreased especially between January and May, increasing again in October and
November. Four limited wars continued in the eastern Provinces of the DR Congo, while three de-escalated to violent crises.
Kata Katanga rebel leader Gédeon Mutanga surrendered with about 100 of his fighters in October, while Congolese authorities
arrested Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) deputy commander Léopold Mujyambere in May [→ DR
Congo (Kata Katanga); DR Congo, Rwanda (FDLR)]. Throughout the year, militant groups continued to attack civilians. Allied
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