ConflictBarometer_2016

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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN ASIA AND OCEANIA IN 2016 (SUBNATIONAL LEVEL) INTENSITY 5 WAR 4 LIMITED WAR 3 VIOLENT CRISIS NO VIOLENT CONFLICT Pro jection: Asia North Albers Equ al Area Conic
ASIA AND OCEANIA With 123 conflicts in total, Asia and Oceania continued to be the region with the highest number of conflicts, accounting for more than a quarter of conflicts worldwide. The number of violent crises declined from 66 to 56, whereas the number of disputes and non-violent crises increased by nine to 60 conflicts in total. While more than 90 percent of the conflicts featured non or only a low level of violence, the number of highly violent conflicts increased by one to seven. Highly violent conflicts were observed in Pakistan, India, the Philippines, and Myanmar with the latter witnessing three intrastate conflicts on the level of a limited war. Pakistan's intrastate war against the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) and other Islamist militant groups continued unabatedly for the 10th consecutive year, thereby representing the region's only full-scale war. Intrastate conflicts in Myanmar and India as well as the interstate conflict between Pakistan and India escalated to limited wars [→ Myanmar (Rohingya); Myanmar (TNLA / Shan State); India (Naxalites); Pakistan – India]. The region saw a de-escalation of the war over secession on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao [→ Philippines (BIFF, BIFM - MILF, government)] as well as the de-escalation of three limited wars to violent crises [→ Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan State); Philippines (MILF); Pakistan (Baloch nationalists / Balochistan)]. Moreover, with 20 interstate conflicts respectively, Asia and Oceania was the region with the highest number of interstate conflicts along with Europe. Out of the 14 observed conflicts in China, the number of violent conflicts decreased by one to eight. While violent conflicts revolving around ethnic groups in China were carried out less intensely, the conflict regarding democratic and independent movements in the Hongkong Special Administrative Region escalated to a violent level [→ China (Hongkong)]. On the Eve of the Chinese Lunar New Year, violent clashes between Hongkong police and over 300 demonstrators left almost one hundred people injured. In Taiwan, the opposition conflict de-escalated with the power transition from the Kuomintang to the Democratic Progressive Party. However, this increased tensions between China and Taiwan as well as between China and the US [→ China (Taiwan – opposition); China (Taiwan); China – USA]. In the South China Sea, frictions between China and the Philippines diminished with the political rapprochement between both sides [→ China – Vietnam et al. (South China Sea)]. However, a new violent conflict dynamic regarding maritime rights between Indonesia, China, Vietnam, and Malaysia evolved. On the Korean Peninsula, the human rights situation in the DPRK continued to deteriorate. The newly observed conflict indicated that up to 30,000 people defected from the DPRK since 1962 [→ North Korea, China (defectors)]. In Southeast Asia, Myanmar remained the country with the most violent conflicts. Throughout the year, several ethnic armed groups continued fighting amongst each other. In early 2016 in Shan State, Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) forces clashed with members of the Restoration Council of Shan State [→ Myanmar (TNLA, RCSS)]. Fighters of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) resumed the limited war against the government over the autonomy of Kachin State [→ Myanmar (KIA, KIO)]. The heavy fighting left at least 63 dead and 6,900 internally displaced. At the end of the year, violence peaked when TNLA, KIA, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Arakan Army forces jointly attacked several government outposts in Shan State, referring to themselves as ''Northern Alliance”. The subsequent clashes left at least 14 dead, 50 injured, 2,000 internally displaced, and 3,000 fled to China [→ Myanmar (TNLA / Shan State)]. In October, the conflict between radical buddhists, government, and members of the Rohingya minority in Rakhine State escalated to a limited war. After two months of heavy clashes, leaving over 100 Rohingya dead, approx. 50,000 internally displaced, and 1,500 Rohingya homes destroyed, UN officials considered the Burmese operations to be a potential ethnic cleansing [→ Myanmar (Rohingya)]. Despite this development, efforts to establish a nationwide peace agreement continued [→ Myanmar (UNFC)]. In Thailand, the violent conflict between Islamist separatists and the government over autonomy of several Southern Border Provinces such as Pattani and Yala continued, leaving at least 200 people dead and over 400 injured. This year, violent encounters also affected provinces located closer to the north [→ Thailand (Islamist separatists / Southern Border Provinces)]. The situation in the Philippines was influenced by the inauguration of the new President Rodrigo Duterte in June 2016. President Duterte vowed to advance the peace process in the southern region of Bangsamoro, meeting with leaders of several Islamist insurgent groups as well as the communist NPA. However, the war between the BIFM and BIFF groups, on the one hand, and the government in cooperation with MILF, on the other, continued as a limited war [→ Philippines (BIFM, BIFF – MILF, government)]. The conflicts between the government and the MILF as well as the MNLF group each de-escalated by one level, with the MNLF conflict turning non-violent [→ Philippines (MILF); Philippines (MILF – MNLF); Philippines (MNLF)]. Several negotiation talks between the government and the group leaders took place throughout the year. The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), which pledged allegiance to IS in 2014, took civilians, soldiers, and foreign travellers hostage and beheaded at least four of them [→ Philippines (Abu Sayyaf); Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. In response, President Duterte increased the number of troops deployed to fight ASG. In Indonesia, civilians as well as government troops were killed in attacks by Islamist militant groups, with the most severe attack taking place in the capital Jakarta in January, leaving four militants and four civilians dead and injuring another 24 [→ Indonesia (Islamist militant groups)]. Following the attack, the government strengthened anti-terrorism legislation, which was criticized by human rights organizations. Tribal fighting in Papua New Guinea turned violent on several occasions, leading to the launch of a joint police and military operation in Hela province [→ Papua New Guinea (tribal violence)]. The opposition conflict turned violent this year, when police shot at groups of students protesting against the government, injuring at least 17 [→ Papua New Guinea (opposition)]. In Nepal, several ethnic groups, among them Madhesis and Kiratis, had blocked the border to India in protest against the new constitution from September 2015 onwards [→ Nepal (Madhesis, Tharus / Terai)]. While the blockade ended on February 8, violent protests and clashes over the constitution and boundaries of the new states continued [→ Nepal (right-wing Hindu groups), Nepal (opposition)]. 129
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2016 disputes non-violent crises vi
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CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2016 Analyzed
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AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
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Since 1991, quantitative conflict r
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Evaluated is the overall number of
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2016 (SUBNATIO
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GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT In 2016, the HII
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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA DISTRIBUTI
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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA INTERSTATE
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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA In total,
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NEGOTIATIONS AND TREATIES In 2016,
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION ern
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION 201
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION REG
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MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Equ
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2016
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EUROPE of a Cypriot reunification i
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EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
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EUROPE The Azerbaijani army alleged
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EUROPE population of the city Vukov
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EUROPE While GD repeatedly accused
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EUROPE LATVIA (RUSSIAN-SPEAKING MIN
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EUROPE ing the ''gay propaganda”
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EUROPE RUSSIA - UKRAINE (CRIMEA) In
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EUROPE SWEDEN (XENOPHOBES) Intensit
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UKRAINE (DONBAS) January February M
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EUROPE UKRAINE (OPPOSITION) Intensi
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EUROPE dent, declared that ''Anacon
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN SUB-SAHARAN AF
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Democratic Force
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Name of conflict
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ANGOLA (UNITA) I
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Nevertheless, ex
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to strengthen Ou
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA thorities. Follo
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA against Mayi-May
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA force, known as
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA GUINEA (OPPOSITI
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB weaponry to
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ernorate, k
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB eight execu
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB prisoners o
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Starting Au
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB manufacturi
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB it for anot
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB sanctions o
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB temporary c
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IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
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eidelerg Institute for Internationa
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