ConflictBarometer_2016

ASIA AND OCEANIA
As in the last years, the government and the opposition in Bangladesh clashed over elections, which together with intraopposition
clashes, left more than 63 dead and at least 1,144 injured [→ Bangladesh (opposition)]. Furthermore, Islamist
violence continued, mainly targeting secular bloggers, Hindus, Shiites, and non-Muslim foreigners [→ Bangladesh (Islamist
groups)]. On July 1, IS claimed to have carried out its most fatal attack so far in Bangladesh when they took hostages in a café,
resulting in 29 deaths, among them 20 civilians, most of them foreigners, while over 30 were injured.
In India, the conflict over ideology and the political system between the Naxalites and the government escalated to a limited
war, thereby becoming one of the most violent conflicts in the South Asia region [→India (Naxalites)]. Naxalites increasingly
targeted civilians, often accusing them of being police informers. In this year, more than 360 conflict-related deaths occurred,
which marked a significant rise compared to last year. Moreover, various militant groups continued their violent struggle for
secession [→ India (GNLA et al. / Meghalaya); India (Manipur); India (NSCN factions et al. / Nagaland); India (ULFA-I et al. /
Assam)]. Furthermore, three autonomy conflicts de-escalated to a non-violent level [→ India (HPC-D factions / Mizoram, Manipur,
Assam); India (PULF); India (TJAC / Telangana)].
Incidents of communal violence between Hindus and Muslims took place throughout the year [→ India (Hindus – Muslims)].
Several cases of violence against Muslims in connection to cattle trade or the consumption of beef were reported. In November,
a proposal for a uniform civil code caused tensions. Demands for socio-economic benefits under the Indian reservation
system were raised by several communities, leading to protests, which often turned violent [→ India (Patels et al.)]. In February,
demands by the Jat community sparked a week-long violent protest, which spread to multiple states. Clashes between
security forces and local protesters in Kashmir Valley over the killing of militants in security operations continued for months,
leaving several thousand civilians injured [→ India (Kashmir)]. Relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated with the
halt of bilateral talks in connection to two Islamist militant attacks on Indian army bases [→ India (JeM et al.–Kashmir); India
(Islamist militant groups)]. Army skirmishes in the contested border area of Jammu and Kashmir state continued, causing
thousands of civilians on both sides to flee their homes. Additionally, tension over water distribution between both states
increased [→ Pakistan – India].
In Pakistan, Islamist militants continued to target religious minorities, security forces, and educational institutions [→ Pakistan
(Sunni militants – religious groups]. Pakistani officials warned about IS' alleged influence among members of other militant
groups, while IS claimed responsibility for several attacks. The counter-terrorism campaign ''Zarb-e-Azb” launched in 2014
was preliminarily completed in April. However, security operations continued in several provinces and airstrikes resumed in
the second half of the year [→ Pakistan (Islamist militants)].The conflict over secession in Balochistan province de-escalated
to a violent crisis [→ Pakistan (Baloch nationalists / Balochistan)].
In Central Asia, two violent crises between various Islamist groups and the respective governments of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan
were observed. In June, 25 Islamist militants attacked two gun shops and a military facility in the Kazakh city of
Aqtobe, leaving three security forces, five civilians, and 18 suspected Islamist militants dead. This was the most fatal Islamist
attack since the country's independence [→ Kazakhstan (Islamist groups)]. In Tajikistan, Islamist militants crossing the porous
border to Afghanistan continued to be perceived as a security threat by the government. This prompted the Tajik government
to seek international cooperation, target alleged followers of extremist groups, and restrict practice of Islam in everyday life
[→ Tajikistan (Islamist groups)]. Moreover, the conflict between the opposition and the Kazakh government escalated to a
non-violent crisis against the backdrop of protests against a planned land privatization reform and the subsequent crackdown
on opposition activists [→ Kazakhstan (opposition)]. The non-violent crisis between various opposition groups and
the Kyrgyz government was marked by alleged attempts to overthrow the government and subsequent detention of several
opposition leaders [→ Kyrgyzstan (opposition)]. The conflict over international power, water resources, and territory between
Uzbekistan, on the one hand, and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, on the other, escalated to a non-violent crisis [→ Uzbekistan –
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan].
CONFLICT INTENSITIES IN ASIA AND OCEANIA
IN 2016 COMPARED TO 2015
FREQUENCY OF CONFLICT ITEMS IN ASIA AND OCEANIA
IN 2016 BY INTENSITY GROUPS
2015:
2016:
high intensity
medium intensity
low intensity
66
21
23
56
19
14
14
20
35
31
25
4
6
2
1
2
1
10
territory
1
11
4
secession
0 0 0
1
11
decolonisation
autonomy
2
1
9
8
system / ideology
national power
3
12
1 1
8
subnational predominance
international power
3
11
resources
0
7
9
other
dispute non-violent crisis violent crisis limited war war
130