ConflictBarometer_2016

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GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA HIGHLY VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN 2016 LIMITED WARS (20) WARS (18) SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Central African Republic (Anti-Balaka – ex-Séléka) DR Congo (ADF) DR Congo (Bantu – Batwa) DR Congo (Mayi-Mayi et al.) DR Congo, Rwanda (FDLR) Nigeria (northerners – southerners) Sudan (inter-communal violence) Nigeria (farmers – pastoralists) Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger (Boko Haram) Somalia, Kenya (al-Shabaab) South Sudan (inter-communal violence) South Sudan (SPLM/A-in-Opposition) Sudan (Darfur) Sudan (SPLM/A-North / Southern Kordofan, Blue Nile) MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Egypt (Islamist groups / Sinai Peninsula) Turkey (opposition) Afghanistan (Taliban et al.) Syria, Iraq et al. (IS) Libya (opposition) Syria (inter-opposition violence) Syria (opposition) Turkey (PKK, TAK) Yemen, Saudi Arabia (al-Houthi) Yemen (AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia) India (Naxalites) Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin State) Myanmar (Rohingya) Myanmar (TNLA / Shan State) Pakistan – India Philippines (BIFM, BIFF – MILF, government) ASIA AND OCEANIA Pakistan (Islamist militant groups) Brazil (drug-trafficking organizations) Colombia (ELN) Colombia (inter-cartel violence, neo-paramilitary groups, left-wing militants) El Salvador (Maras) Mexico (inter-cartel violence, paramilitary groups) THE AMERICAS Mexico (drug cartels) EUROPE Ukraine (Donbas) 12
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT In 2016, the HIIK observed 402 conflicts, among them 226 violent and 176 non-violent ones. The number of full-scale wars decreased from 19 to 18, while the number of limited wars decreased by four to 20 in total. Overall, 188 violent crises were observed, marking a decrease by four compared to 2015. The number of non-violent crises decreased by ten to 78, while the number of disputes increased by eight to 98. WARS: Throughout the year, two conflicts, both in the Middle East and Maghreb, escalated to a war. In Syria, violence between different opposition groups, such as the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces and their military wing, the Free Syrian Army, as well as various moderate and Islamist groups, intensified [→ Syria (inter-opposition violence)]. While the groups jointly fought against the Syrian government or the so-called Islamic State (IS) on occasion, they also repeatedly attacked each other. In Yemen, the conflict between al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Ansar al Sharia, on the one hand, and the government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, supported by the US, escalated to a war [→ Yemen (AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia)]. AQAP increasingly attacked government and pro-government troops and achieved territorial gains in the first three months of the year. Government troops, supported by US and Saudi-Arabian airstrikes, pushed back AQAP in the following months. Overall, the Middle East and Maghreb witnessed eight wars in 2016, more than any other region. In Syria, following UN Resolution 2254 from 12/18/15, a ceasefire between opposition groups and the government came into effect on February 27. However, by April, the ceasefire had collapsed entirely. From July onwards, the government started a siege of Aleppo, blocking supply-lines for opposition groups. In the following months, violence in and around Aleppo intensified significantly, with Russian and Syrian airstrikes repeatedly targeting the opposition-held parts of the city. On December 22, government forces took full control over eastern Aleppo, after 35,000 people had been evacuated to the opposition-held town of Idlib. The war between between IS, on the one hand, and Syria, Iraq, as well as other governments and several militant groups, on the other, continued. In Syria, IS lost territories in the northern governorates of Aleppo, ar-Raqqa, and al-Hasakah, while it maintained control over its territories in Deir ez-Zor Governorate and extended its control in Homs Governorate. In Iraq, IS was pushed back from Nineveh Governorate and al-Anbar Governorate, but maintained control over areas in Kirkuk, Erbil, Diyala, and Salahuddin Governorates. According to the UN, more than 16,000 people were killed in the course of the conflict in Iraq, among them over 6,800 civilians. The number of IDPs decreased after almost one million people had returned to their homes in former IS-held areas. In Afghanistan, the nationwide war between Taliban and other Islamist militant groups, on the one hand, and the government, on the other, continued. Taliban repeatedly attempted to take control over major cities like Kunduz and numerous districts in several provinces throughout the country [→ Afghanistan (Taliban et al.)]. According to US Forces Afghanistan, by the end of November, 174 out of GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA 407 districts in Afghanistan were insufficiently or not at all controlled by the government. Moreover, Taliban conducted attacks on government buildings, diplomatic missions, international targets as well as media outlets. The war in Libya between the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR), the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC), and the newly formed Government of National Accord (GNA), each supported by different armed groups, continued [→ Libya (opposition)]. The GNA was formed by former HoR and GNC members, but parts of HoR and GNC did not recognize GNA and resumed their respective governmental activities. Consequently, clashes between the Libyan National Army, supporting HoR, and Shura Councils, supporting GNC, continued and concentrated in eastern Libya. In Turkey, the war between the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its splinter group Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), on the one hand, and the government, on the other, continued. While the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and PKK repeatedly clashed in eastern provinces, TAK also conducted several bomb attacks in western provinces. Overall, at least 173 civilians, 540 security personnel, and 2,241 militants were killed. The war between al-Houthi and the government in Yemen continued, while the humanitarian situation in the country further deteriorated [→ Yemen, Saudi Arabia (al-Houthi)]. As in the previous year, the only highly violent conflict in Europe took place in Ukraine, where the war in the Donbas region between the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, on the one hand, and the Ukrainian government as well as Ukrainian nationalist volunteer battalions, on the other, continued in its third consecutive year. The number of civilian casualties increased and the conflict parties did not succeed in implementing several ceasefire agreements despite international mediation efforts [→ Ukraine (Donbas)]. In Africa, seven wars were observed, marking a decrease by two. In Sudan, the war in Darfur between the Sudan Revolutionary Front and the government continued in its 14th consecutive year and was influenced by inter-communal fighting [→ Sudan (Darfur); Sudan (inter-communal violence)]. Furthermore, the war between SPLM/A-North and the government in Sudan's South Kordofan and Blue Nile regions continued [→ Sudan (opposition)]. Violence decreased in the second half of the year after both conflict parties had joined the ''Roadmap Agreement.” In South Sudan, the war between various ethnic groups over arable land and cattle continued [→ South Sudan (inter-communal violence)]. It was increasingly influenced by the war between Nuer-affiliated Sudan People Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) and the government of President Salva Kiir that intensified after a failed peace agreement in 2015 [→ South Sudan(SPLM/Ain-Opposition)]. While fighting subsided in the first half of the year due to attempts to implement the peace accord, violence intensified from July onwards, especially in and around the capital Juba. Ethnically motivated violence markedly increased, and in the end of November, the UN voiced concerns over ethnic cleansings allegedly committed by both sides. In Nigeria, the war between farmers and pastoralists over control of arable land and cattle continued in its fifth consecutive year with 1,135 conflict-related deaths in the course of the year [→ Nigeria (farmers – pastoralists)]. The war between Boko Haram and Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger continued, although conflict-related deaths decreased 13
Page 1 and 2: 2016 disputes non-violent crises vi
Page 3 and 4: CONFLICT BAROMETER I 2016 Analyzed
Page 5 and 6: AUTHORS AND EDITORIAL BOARD EUROPE
Page 8 and 9: Since 1991, quantitative conflict r
Page 10: Evaluated is the overall number of
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Page 23 and 24: NEGOTIATIONS AND TREATIES In 2016,
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Page 29 and 30: MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION REG
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Page 33 and 34: VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN EUROPE IN 2016
Page 35 and 36: EUROPE of a Cypriot reunification i
Page 37 and 38: EUROPE Name of conflict 1 Conflict
Page 39 and 40: EUROPE The Azerbaijani army alleged
Page 41 and 42: EUROPE population of the city Vukov
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Page 47 and 48: EUROPE ing the ''gay propaganda”
Page 49 and 50: EUROPE RUSSIA - UKRAINE (CRIMEA) In
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA ANGOLA (UNITA) I
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Nevertheless, ex
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA to strengthen Ou
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA thorities. Follo
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA against Mayi-May
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA force, known as
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA GUINEA (OPPOSITI
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MALI (INTER-MILI
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA in years before,
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA of the PDP in Po
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Nyamwasa, living
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOMALIA, KENYA (
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA lic debate about
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SOUTH SUDAN (SPLM/A - IN - OPPOSITI
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA near Yei town. O
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA such as cattle,
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Panel on Sudan e
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA clashed. The fig
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA UGANDA (INTERCOM
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the Americas
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THE AMERICAS The overall number of
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Overview: Conflicts in the Americas
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THE AMERICAS Alan Duncan stateda''p
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THE AMERICAS Rousseff until a final
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THE AMERICAS COLOMBIA (ELN) Intensi
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THE AMERICAS 20 transitory demilita
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THE AMERICAS ment, 3,517 alleged me
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THE AMERICAS Morales, declared that
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THE AMERICAS ily concerned with hig
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THE AMERICAS spite renewed federal
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THE AMERICAS NICARAGUA (OPPOSITION)
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THE AMERICAS USA - CUBA (SYSTEM) In
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Asia and Oceania
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ASIA AND OCEANIA With 123 conflicts
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Overview: Conflicts in Asia and Oce
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Name of conflict 1
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ASIA AND OCEANIA BANGLADESH (CHITTA
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ASIA AND OCEANIA founded the Hong K
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ASIA AND OCEANIA monastery in Dragg
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ASIA AND OCEANIA sia off the coast
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Militant Bodos, ma
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ASIA AND OCEANIA Kitovi (NSCN-KK),
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ASIA AND OCEANIA INDONESIA (AHMADI)
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ASIA AND OCEANIA upon the internati
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ASIA AND OCEANIA mer vice president
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ASIA AND OCEANIA mine against the r
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ASIA AND OCEANIA tillery strike aga
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PAKISTAN (ISLAMIST MILITANT GROUPS)
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ASIA AND OCEANIA PAKISTAN - INDIA I
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ASIA AND OCEANIA sisted by the army
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ASIA AND OCEANIA ers for forced and
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VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAS
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB several bom
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Name of con
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AFGHANISTAN (TALIBAN ET AL.) Januar
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ALGERIA (OP
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB hostages in
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ning for th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB weaponry to
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB ernorate, k
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB eight execu
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB for the ass
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB prisoners o
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB Starting Au
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB manufacturi
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB from streng
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB entering th
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB it for anot
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB sanctions o
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MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB temporary c
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IMPRINT ADVISORY BOARD Dr. Nadine A
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eidelerg Institute for Internationa
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