ConflictBarometer_2016

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
SUDAN (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2011
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
National Consensus Forum, studentled
groups vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The violent crisis over national power and the orientation of
the political system between various opposition groups and
the government of the National Congress Party (NCP) led by
President Omar al-Bashir continued. While the government
acted mostly through the National Intelligence and Security
Service (NISS), the opposition comprised the National Consensus
Forum (NCF), which included the National Umma Party
(NUP), the Sudanese Communist Party (SCP) and the Popular
Congress Party (PCP) as well as the Sudanese Congress Party
(SCoP). The Sudan Call Forces, another oppositional umbrella,
included the NUP, SCoP and six other oppositional organizations.
As in previous years, both the government and its
opposition were supported by student-led groups.
This year, protests focused on the Darfur referendum and
energy price hikes [→ Sudan (Darfur)]. On February 12, NUP
demanded the suspension of the construction of three dams
in Northern State, as no agreement with local residents had
been reached. Five days later, protests against the project
were dispersed by security forces, allegedly using batons
and tear gas. On March 5, the PCP founder and leader Hassan
al-Turabi died at the age of 84. The NCF declared their rejection
of the upcoming Darfur referendum on February 12,
stating that it was failing to restore peace, misleading expectations,
and not representative of the population's interest.
On April 11, ten students of al-Fashir University were arrested
for protesting the referendum. When the referendum took
place twelve days later, an overwhelming majority voted for
keeping the previous administrative division. Oppositional
groups boycotted the referendum due to their criticism of
the procedures and the reportedly high number of voters
who had not been able to register.
During clashes between opposition- and governmentaffiliated
students at the University of Kordofan, North Kordofan
State, on April 19, one student was shot dead, while
22 others were injured. On April 27, another violent clash between
opposing student groups in Khartoum, in the eponymous
state, led to apolice intervention during which one
oppositional student was reportedly killed. On April 29, NISS
demanded all newspapers to refrain from covering student
protests, allegedly to prevent further violence. On May 16,
violence erupted between NCP and PCP loyal students over
university elections at the Holy Quran University in Khartoum,
injuring 25.
Delegations of the government, armed groups and the NUP
came together for the African Union High-Level Implementation
Panel on Sudan (AUHIP) mediation talks in Addis Abeba
on March 18, resulting in the so-called ''Roadmap Agreement”,
which was signed by the government, but not all opposition
groups. The Sudan Call Forces signed the agreement
on August 8. During further peace talks between August
9and 14 on ceasefire agreements in Darfur, Blue Nile
94
and South Kordofan, no agreement was achieved [→ (Sudan
(SPLM/A-North / South Kordofan, Blue Nile)]. The signing of
the National Dialogue document was officially closed on October
11, however, the government extended the possibility
to sign the document, as major opposition parties like the
NUP had not yet signed.
Between November 4 and 11, seven leading figures of the
SCoP, including its deputy chief Khaled Omar, were arrested
for inciting protests against the rise in fuel and electricity
prices. On November 24, approx. 300 people protested
against the high prices and were dispersed by police forces.
Between November 27 and 29, people in Khartoum went
on strike, following the call from the political opposition.
The government seized the print copies offour independent
newspapers on November 29 for reporting about the strike.
On November 30, the police used tear gas to disperse approx.
300 protesters. Overall, the government arrested 40
people, who had protested the recent price hikes. After calls
for a general strike on December 19 and 20 had been posted
on social media, the government announced astrict policy
against protesters on December 12. Nevertheless, general
strikes against the austerity measures and the restriction of
civil liberties began on December 19. coc
SUDAN (SPLM/A-NORTH / SOUTH KORDOFAN,
BLUE NILE)
Intensity: 5 | Change: | Start: 2011
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
SPLM/A-North vs. government
autonomy, resources
The war over autonomy and resources such as land, water
energy and oil between the SPLM/A-North (SPLM/A-N) and
the government under President Omar al-Bashir continued.
In the first half of the year, fighting escalated in the context
of a yearly flare-up during dry season.
As in previous years, a large-scale government offensive in
the peripheral areas of Blue Nile, South Kordofan and Darfur
resulted inahigh number of ground assaults and aerial bombardments.
Government troops comprised Sudanese Armed
Forces (SAF), Sudanese Air Force, and the paramilitary units
of the Popular Defense Forces (PDF) and the Rapid Support
Forces (RSF), with the latter increasingly recruiting locals over
tribal militias from Darfur [→ Sudan (Darfur)]. The employment
of paramilitary troops to support ground offensives was
relatively new to the area, but had previously been used in
Darfur and increasingly in South Kordofan State. RSF also
operated in Blue Nile State, reportedly for the first time since
their creation in 2014.
Fighting subsided in the second half of the year, for both conflict
parties joined the Roadmap Agreement that had been
proposed by the African Union High-Level Implementation