ConflictBarometer_2016

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
several bomb attacks.
In Yemen, the war between the al-Houthi and the government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi continued. Former president
Ali Abdullah Saleh and troops loyal to him, as well as Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah continued to provide support for
al-Houthi. The internationally recognized Hadi government was mainly supported by an Arab coalition under the leadership
of Saudi Arabia and Sunni militias, most notably Popular Resistance Fighters and members of the Southern Mobility Movement
(SMM). Prior to the Saudi Arabian intervention in 2015, the SMM fought against the central government for an independent
South Yemen. In the course of the al-Houthi conflict, the SMM sided with the Hadi government. However, in 2016, calls for
a Southern Yemeni independence reemerged. Aden, the temporary seat of the Hadi government and stronghold of the SMM,
witnessed a wave of assassinations and bomb attacks throughout the year. Furthermore, the conflicts with Al-Qaeda on the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Yemeni branch of IS continued [→ Yemen (AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia); Yemen (AQAP – al-Houthi)].
AQAP fought both the government and al-Houthi forces and tried to position itself as a third alternative. The United States
continued its drone strikes against AQAP and also for the first time directly intervened against al-Houthi, after the latter had
allegedly targeted a US warship with missiles in October.
The opposition conflicts in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia continued on a violent level with violent demonstrations and police
interventions taking place throughout the year [→ Algeria (opposition); Morocco (opposition); Tunisia (opposition)].
In Libya, the war between rival state institutions backed by their armed forces, loyal or loosely affiliated militias, and armed
groups continued [→ Libya (opposition)]. On January 1, the Government of National Accord, backed by factions of both
the internationally-recognized Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) and the rival Tripoli-based General National
Congress (GNC), began to operate as part of the UN-facilitated Libyan Political Agreement signed in 2015. However, the remaining
parts of GNC as well as HoR continued to operate as separate governments. Fighting concentrated in the country's
East in and around the cities of Benghazi, Derna, and Ajdabiya, mainly involving HoR-backing Libyan National Army (LNA)
forces and the GNC-linked Shura Councils. While the Derna Mujahideen Shura Council (DMSC) remained in control of Derna,
LNA pushed back the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC) in Benghazi and drove the Ajdabiya Revolutionaries
Shura Council (ARSC) out of Ajdabiya. With the Benghazi Defense Brigades, a new group emerged at the beginning of the year
to support ARSC and BRSC.
In central Libya, the central branch of the Petroleum Facility Guard forces failed to regain the oil ports of al-Sidra, Ras Lanuf,
and Zueitina, of which LNA had taken control in September.
IS was pushed back in the course of the year by armed forces of the opposition conflict parties and their affiliates, as well as
international forces [→Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. Most violence occurred in and around the cities of Sabratha, Sirte, Benghazi and
Derna.
The conflict among tribes in southern Libya de-escalated to a violent crisis, with occasional but heavy fighting taking place in
January and November [→ Libya (inter-tribal)].
FREQUENCY OF CONFLICT ITEMS IN MIDDLE EAST
AND MAGHREB IN 2016 BY INTENSITY GROUPS
high intensity
medium intensity
low intensity
19 19
0
4
3
0
4
1
0 0 0
1
4
2
8
5 5
7
2
6
4
1
0
8
2
5
2
2
1
0
territory
secession
autonomy
resources
decolonisation
national power
subnational predominance
system / ideology
international power
other
167