ConflictBarometer_2016

ASIA AND OCEANIA
With 123 conflicts in total, Asia and Oceania continued to be the region with the highest number of conflicts, accounting for
more than a quarter of conflicts worldwide. The number of violent crises declined from 66 to 56, whereas the number of
disputes and non-violent crises increased by nine to 60 conflicts in total.
While more than 90 percent of the conflicts featured non or only a low level of violence, the number of highly violent conflicts
increased by one to seven. Highly violent conflicts were observed in Pakistan, India, the Philippines, and Myanmar with the
latter witnessing three intrastate conflicts on the level of a limited war. Pakistan's intrastate war against the Tehrik-e-Taliban
(TTP) and other Islamist militant groups continued unabatedly for the 10th consecutive year, thereby representing the region's
only full-scale war. Intrastate conflicts in Myanmar and India as well as the interstate conflict between Pakistan and
India escalated to limited wars [→ Myanmar (Rohingya); Myanmar (TNLA / Shan State); India (Naxalites); Pakistan – India]. The
region saw a de-escalation of the war over secession on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao [→ Philippines (BIFF, BIFM
- MILF, government)] as well as the de-escalation of three limited wars to violent crises [→ Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan State);
Philippines (MILF); Pakistan (Baloch nationalists / Balochistan)].
Moreover, with 20 interstate conflicts respectively, Asia and Oceania was the region with the highest number of interstate
conflicts along with Europe.
Out of the 14 observed conflicts in China, the number of violent conflicts decreased by one to eight. While violent conflicts
revolving around ethnic groups in China were carried out less intensely, the conflict regarding democratic and independent
movements in the Hongkong Special Administrative Region escalated to a violent level [→ China (Hongkong)]. On the Eve of
the Chinese Lunar New Year, violent clashes between Hongkong police and over 300 demonstrators left almost one hundred
people injured. In Taiwan, the opposition conflict de-escalated with the power transition from the Kuomintang to the Democratic
Progressive Party. However, this increased tensions between China and Taiwan as well as between China and the US [→
China (Taiwan – opposition); China (Taiwan); China – USA]. In the South China Sea, frictions between China and the Philippines
diminished with the political rapprochement between both sides [→ China – Vietnam et al. (South China Sea)]. However, a
new violent conflict dynamic regarding maritime rights between Indonesia, China, Vietnam, and Malaysia evolved. On the
Korean Peninsula, the human rights situation in the DPRK continued to deteriorate. The newly observed conflict indicated
that up to 30,000 people defected from the DPRK since 1962 [→ North Korea, China (defectors)].
In Southeast Asia, Myanmar remained the country with the most violent conflicts. Throughout the year, several ethnic armed
groups continued fighting amongst each other. In early 2016 in Shan State, Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) forces
clashed with members of the Restoration Council of Shan State [→ Myanmar (TNLA, RCSS)]. Fighters of the Kachin Independence
Army (KIA) resumed the limited war against the government over the autonomy of Kachin State [→ Myanmar (KIA, KIO)].
The heavy fighting left at least 63 dead and 6,900 internally displaced. At the end of the year, violence peaked when TNLA,
KIA, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and Arakan Army forces jointly attacked several government outposts in
Shan State, referring to themselves as ''Northern Alliance”. The subsequent clashes left at least 14 dead, 50 injured, 2,000
internally displaced, and 3,000 fled to China [→ Myanmar (TNLA / Shan State)]. In October, the conflict between radical buddhists,
government, and members of the Rohingya minority in Rakhine State escalated to a limited war. After two months of
heavy clashes, leaving over 100 Rohingya dead, approx. 50,000 internally displaced, and 1,500 Rohingya homes destroyed,
UN officials considered the Burmese operations to be a potential ethnic cleansing [→ Myanmar (Rohingya)]. Despite this development,
efforts to establish a nationwide peace agreement continued [→ Myanmar (UNFC)].
In Thailand, the violent conflict between Islamist separatists and the government over autonomy of several Southern Border
Provinces such as Pattani and Yala continued, leaving at least 200 people dead and over 400 injured. This year, violent encounters
also affected provinces located closer to the north [→ Thailand (Islamist separatists / Southern Border Provinces)].
The situation in the Philippines was influenced by the inauguration of the new President Rodrigo Duterte in June 2016. President
Duterte vowed to advance the peace process in the southern region of Bangsamoro, meeting with leaders of several
Islamist insurgent groups as well as the communist NPA. However, the war between the BIFM and BIFF groups, on the one
hand, and the government in cooperation with MILF, on the other, continued as a limited war [→ Philippines (BIFM, BIFF –
MILF, government)]. The conflicts between the government and the MILF as well as the MNLF group each de-escalated by
one level, with the MNLF conflict turning non-violent [→ Philippines (MILF); Philippines (MILF – MNLF); Philippines (MNLF)].
Several negotiation talks between the government and the group leaders took place throughout the year. The Abu Sayyaf
Group (ASG), which pledged allegiance to IS in 2014, took civilians, soldiers, and foreign travellers hostage and beheaded at
least four of them [→ Philippines (Abu Sayyaf); Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. In response, President Duterte increased the number of
troops deployed to fight ASG.
In Indonesia, civilians as well as government troops were killed in attacks by Islamist militant groups, with the most severe
attack taking place in the capital Jakarta in January, leaving four militants and four civilians dead and injuring another 24 [→
Indonesia (Islamist militant groups)]. Following the attack, the government strengthened anti-terrorism legislation, which was
criticized by human rights organizations. Tribal fighting in Papua New Guinea turned violent on several occasions, leading to
the launch of a joint police and military operation in Hela province [→ Papua New Guinea (tribal violence)]. The opposition
conflict turned violent this year, when police shot at groups of students protesting against the government, injuring at least
17 [→ Papua New Guinea (opposition)].
In Nepal, several ethnic groups, among them Madhesis and Kiratis, had blocked the border to India in protest against the new
constitution from September 2015 onwards [→ Nepal (Madhesis, Tharus / Terai)]. While the blockade ended on February 8,
violent protests and clashes over the constitution and boundaries of the new states continued [→ Nepal (right-wing Hindu
groups), Nepal (opposition)].
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