ConflictBarometer_2016

THE AMERICAS
Throughout the year, controversies about the repeatedly delayed
scheduling of a recall referendum against Maduro dominated
the political and legal struggle. On January 5, the
newly-elected National Assembly with its MUD majority took
over, urging a change of government within six months. On
January 11, the Supreme Court (TSJ) invalidated all decisions
by the Assembly as three opposition deputies took up their
seats despite the TSJ's ruling to hold re-elections in their localities.
The decision was later approved by the Assembly in
order to restore its legislative competences. On January 15,
Maduro issued an initial 60-day economic emergency decree
allowing the executive to undertake extraordinary measures.
The Assembly rejected the decree on January 22, whereas the
TSJ validated it on February 12. This dynamic occurred repeatedly
throughout the year.
On March 29, the Assembly passed an amnesty bill demanding
the release of alleged political prisoners. The government
vetoed the bill, alleging unfair and fraudulent legal terms, and
the TSJ declared the bill unconstitutional. During demonstrations
on the same day, protesters hijacked a bus and steered
it into a police cordon, killing two police officers and wounding
four others in San Cristóbal, Táchira state.
After the MUD had collected 1.8 million signatures for the first
phase of the recall referendum, the National Electoral Council
(CNE) stated on June 7 that around 600,000 signatures did
not meet the necessary standards. Protests and lootings due
to the lack of basic goods escalated in the following days.
In Petare, Miranda state, police forces used live ammunition
against protesters, killing one and injuring several others on
June 9. Three days later, in a demonstration in Cerezal, Sucre
state, police shot and killed one and injured another ten
protesters.
On August 9, the CNE released a schedule for the second
phase of the process which included the collection 20 percent
of voter turnout in every state, translating into about four
million signatures by the end of October, followed by a 90-
day period to hold the referendum. If recalled after this date,
the president would be replaced by the vice-president and
new elections would not be convoked. On September 1, more
than one million people, constituting approx. three percent
of the entire population, participated in nation-wide MUDorganized
protests and demanded the referendum to be held.
After the CNE had suspended the referendum several times,
another 1.2 million protested on October 26. While protests
in the capital Caracas remained non-violent, more than 120
people were injured in clashes in other cities and a policeman
was shot and killed in Miranda. On October 21, the CNE
declared the suspension of the MUD's planned second signature
collection to be held between October 26 and 28. The
Assembly reacted on October 23 by approving an agreement
''for the restitution of constitutional order and democracy”
and scheduling a political trial against Maduro. The agreement
included the replacement of TSJ and CNE magistrates,
the submission of a complaint before the ICJ against the TSJ
and CNE, and a request to the military not to follow government
orders. PSUV members stated the Assembly was promoting
a coup d'état, and PSUV supporters interrupted the
session, causing material damage.
Mediated by the Vatican and sponsored by UNASUR, talks between
MUD and PSUV started on October 30 in Caracas. MUD
had conditioned the dialog on scheduling a recall referendum
in 2016, the liberation of alleged political prisoners, the acknowledgement
of the MUD-led legislative authority, and the
allowance of humanitarian assistance. Three imprisoned opposition
politicians were released hours after the first meeting.
In the second round of talks on November 13, representatives
of the government and the MUD announced their
commitment to peaceful coexistence and conflict resolution
within the constitutional framework. Furthermore, both parties
agreed to support the supply of basic goods and the joint
election of two new CNE officials. On November 17, another
MUD deputy was released. On December 6, the MUD announced
it would pause its involvement in the dialog, alleging
lack of concessions from the government.
The government's decision to withdraw the country's largest
banknote from circulation led to widespread protests and renewed
violence and looting in mid-December. In clashes with
the police, at least one person was killed in El Callao, Bolívar
state and dozens injured. In reaction, opposition leader Julio
Borges called the government ''utterly stupid and destructive
in economic management.” cb, peh
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