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ConflictBarometer_2016

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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA<br />

clashed. The fighting lasted for two days and killed 43 people<br />

with both sides using heavy weaponry. On November 15,<br />

the UNSC extended the mandate of UNISFA until 05/15/17<br />

in reaction to the ongoing violence in Abyei as well as the<br />

disagreement over the border demarcation between Sudan<br />

and South Sudan. The lack of local administration structures<br />

deteriorated the food situation, forcing many thousands into<br />

Sudan. nbm<br />

SWAZILAND (OPPOSITION)<br />

Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1998<br />

Conflict parties:<br />

Conflict items:<br />

PODEMO, SNUS, TUCOSWA, SNAT et<br />

al. vs. government<br />

system/ideology, national power<br />

The system and national power conflict between the People's<br />

United Democratic Movement (PUDEMO), the Swaziland National<br />

Association of Teachers (SNAT), the Swaziland National<br />

Union of Students (SNUS), the Trade Union Congress of Swaziland<br />

(TUCOSWA) and several other opposition groups on the<br />

one hand, and King Mswati III on the other, continued on a<br />

violent level. Major issues were corruption, the higher education<br />

system, and wage policy.<br />

The king had banned parties and unions in 1973. The 2006<br />

constitution further guaranteed his absolute rights. In the<br />

past years, several demonstrations and clashes between opposition<br />

groups and the police took place. On February 3, 300<br />

SNAT protesters blocked roads, demanding the government<br />

to publish the salary review report on civil servants in the capital<br />

Mbabane, Hhohho district. Police arrested two protesters.<br />

1,500 trade union members staged protests for the same purpose<br />

on February 25, also in Mbabane. The demanded review<br />

report was published the following week.<br />

SNUS members boycotted lectures and allegedly vandalized<br />

the University of Swaziland on February 22. Policemen drove<br />

a Casspir troop transporter into a group of students, heavily<br />

injuring one but taking her to the hospital immediately. On<br />

October 12, police fired at least six shots on 200 demonstrating<br />

students of Limkokwing University of Creative Technology<br />

in Mbabane and injured four.<br />

On August 28, police shot in the air outside the Plantation<br />

Forestry Company in Hhohho to disperse striking farm workers<br />

who demanded a wage increase. On September 9, police<br />

assaulted six farm workers, allegedly while forcing them to<br />

write statements that they had fired the shots in August. len<br />

hand, and the ruling Party of the Revolution (CCM), on the<br />

other, continued. While CUF challenged the national power<br />

of CCM in the semi-autonomous region of Zanzibar, Chadema<br />

did so on the mainland.<br />

The first major issue was the re-run of the general elections<br />

in Zanzibar on March 20 after the Zanzibar Electoral Committee<br />

had nullified the results of the Zanzibar elections on<br />

10/25/15. The second issue was Chadema declaring to challenge<br />

the alleged suppression of democracy by the government<br />

of the new President John Magufuli.<br />

On January 28, CUF called the nullification of the Zanzibar<br />

election results of 2015 unconstitutional and declared to<br />

boycott the re-run of the election. The CUF's presidential candidate<br />

had claimed to have won the elections. On February<br />

2, a district councillor of the CUF was murdered by assassins<br />

using traditional weapons including swords. The opposition<br />

linked the killing to the councillor's local human rights engagement.<br />

On March 4, an IED went off in Kisonge, Zanzibar<br />

Central/South, destroying a CCM office. In the following<br />

eleven days, five CUF offices, meeting places, and private<br />

houses throughout Zanzibar were torched. On March 14, the<br />

house of the Zanzibar police commissioner was attacked with<br />

an IED, after CUF had claimed that CCM would use security<br />

organs to safeguard its interests and intimidate CUF supporters.<br />

CCM was declared the clear winner of the re-election in<br />

Zanzibar on March 20. This declaration was rejected by CUF<br />

on April 4. The opposition party called for passive resistance<br />

against the new government.<br />

On May 22, CUF announced to take legal action against the<br />

Inspector General of Police and the Minister of Home Affairs<br />

at the High Court for atrocities committed by police and other<br />

security organs against CUF supporters during last year's election.<br />

In the beginning of June, Chadema announced rallies<br />

against President Magufuli. On June 7, an anti-government<br />

protest was dispersed by police using tear gas and arresting<br />

several opposition politicians in the largest city Dar es<br />

Salaam. Subsequently, further opposition protests were<br />

banned. On July 28, Chadema called for countrywide demonstrations<br />

against the government on September 1. President<br />

Magufuli responded immediately by threatening to use force<br />

against ''troublemakers”. However, two days later, he ended<br />

his ban on political rallies by the opposition while still holding<br />

on to his prohibition of the September 1 protest, which<br />

was ignored by Chadema. On August 24, four police officers<br />

were shot dead in Dar es Salaam. CCM accused Chadema of<br />

the killings, who denied this and in return accused CCM of<br />

using the case to justify raids against the opposition party.<br />

Chadema cancelled the countrywide demonstrations scheduled<br />

for September 1. jsp<br />

TANZANIA (CHADEMA, CUF – CCM)<br />

Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1993<br />

Conflict parties:<br />

Conflict items:<br />

CUF, Chadema vs. government<br />

system/ideology, national power<br />

The violent crisis over the political system and national power<br />

between the opposition parties Civic United Front (CUF) and<br />

Party for Democracy and Progress (Chadema), on the one<br />

97<br />

UGANDA (BAGANDA / BUGANDA)<br />

Intensity: 1 | Change: | Start: 1995<br />

Conflict parties:<br />

Conflict items:<br />

Kingdom of Buganda vs. government<br />

autonomy, other<br />

The dispute over autonomy between the Kingdom of Buganda<br />

of the Baganda people and the government continued. As in

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