ConflictBarometer_2016

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Federal Anti-Terrorism Task Force conducted a number of arrests
on July 12. Security forces had been in that region since
December 2015 because of unrests between local Amhara
people and the ethnic group of Qemant. On August 5, security
forces reportedly killed between ten and 25 people in Bahir
Dar city, Amhara, after clashing with protesters. One security
officer was killed.
In Konso, SNNPR State, on March 13, the arrest of Kala Gezahegn,
the traditional leader of the Konso, was followed by
clashes between protesters and police, which left three people
dead. He was charged under the suspicion of maladministration
and corruption.
The Ethiopian Federal Democratic Unity Forum (MEDREK) was
allegedly banned from demonstrating in Addis Ababa earlier
this year. On April 16, Bekele Gerba, deputy chairman of
the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), and 21 other members
were charged under the 2009 Anti-Terrorism Proclamation
(ATP). In early May, the head of public relations of the oppositional
Semayawi Party, was charged with planning a terrorist
act. In mid-May, opposition militant group Ginbot 7 claimed
to have killed 20 government soldiers in south Ethiopia. In the
beginning of October, three Zone 9 bloggers were arrested
for publicly blaming the government for being responsible for
the stampede in Bishoftu. On November 11, another Zone 9
blogger was arrested in Addis Ababa under the ATP. In late
November, OFC leader Merera Gudina was arrested at Bole
International airport on similar charges. jar
ETHIOPIA (TPDM)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2002
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
TPDM vs. government
system/ideology
The conflict over subnational predominance between the
Tigray People's Democratic Movement (TPDM) and the government
escalated to violent crisis. However, almost all violent
incidents remained underreported. Allegedly, TPDM operated
from Eritrean ground.
Following several attacks carried out by TPDM against the military
along the Eritrean border, the government responded on
February 26 by reinforcing its personnel and weaponry near
the Humera and Badme frontlines [→ Ethiopia – Eritrea].
According to several reports, up to hundreds of soldiers
peacefully joined the TPDM movement in the capital Addis
Ababa in mid-May. Reportedly, the deserters demanded
democratic change, criticizing the regime's continuation of
power. On September 29, when a monitoring group interviewed
Mola Asgeodm, former TPDM Chairman and leader of
TPDM, he showed video material and photographs of training
on IED manufacturing, suggesting involvement of the Eritrean
military. vic
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GAMBIA (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: NEW | Start: 2016
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
opposition groups vs. government
national power
A new conflict over national power between the opposition,
led by the United Democratic Party (UDP), and the government
under President Yahya Jammeh, head of the Alliance
for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC), erupted
ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for December
1.
On April 14, demonstrators staged nonviolent protests in Serrekunda,
Banjul Division, demanding electoral reforms. The
police dispersed the protesters and arrested several, among
them members of the UDP. One of them was Solo Sandeng,
who shortly after died in custody of the National Intelligence
Agency (NIA). Two days later, in a UDP-organized rally, 150
protesters called for the release of opposition activists and
for information concerning Sandeng's death, accusing the authorities
of having tortured him to death. The police used tear
gas against the demonstrators and allegedly detained a total
of 55 persons, including UDP leader Ousainou Darboe as well
as at least five other party members. On April 21, around 20 of
the detained protesters, among them Darboe, were charged
by the High Court with different offenses such as unauthorized
assembly and the incitement of violence. One week
later, the court added the charge of ''conspiracy to commit
a felony''.
In late April and early May, further anti-government protests
were staged, especially in front of the High Court building
in the capital, denouncing the mid-April arrests and calling
for freedom of speech. For instance, on May 9, violent confrontations
allegedly took place between demonstrators and
paramilitary groups during a rally in front of the court. Around
40 persons were arrested by the police, some of whom were
reportedly tortured in custody. Eight days later, Jammeh
threatened to kill anti-government protesters on an APRC
meeting. On July 20 and 21, Darboe and more than 20 other
persons, who had been arrested in April, were sentenced to
three years in prison. In the run-up to the presidential elections,
the NIA arrested three journalists between November
8 and 10, which was harshly criticized by UDP presidential
candidate Adama Barrow, among others. With 43.3 percent
of the votes, Barrow won the presidential elections on December
1. Jammeh received 39.6 percent. While Jammeh allegedly
congratulated Barry on his victory the following day,
he announced on December 9 that he refused to accept the
results, citing irregularities in the voting process and demanding
new elections. One day later, the UNSC unanimously condemned
this reaction, calling on Jammeh to respect the outcome.
Ensuing demands by an ECOWAS delegation for Jammeh's
resignation did not succeed. On December 22, Marcel
de Souza, President of the Commission of ECOWAS, stated
that the ECOWAS standby forces would intervene militarily if
Jammeh did not resign as president until 01/19/17. On December
31, Jammeh reiterated his demand for new elections
and denounced ECOWAS's threat as ''a declaration of war.'' jas