ConflictBarometer_2016

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
for the assassinations. On July 18, Jabhat al-Nusra detained
several fighters of Division 13, among them the group's commander
in Ma'rat al-Numan, Idlib. On July 28, Jabhat al-Nusra
announced its split from al-Qaida and the reformation under
the name Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, while keeping their ideology
and the goal to unify all jihadist groups in Syria. Groups such
as the Muslim Brotherhood of Syria, Ahrar al-Sham, and the
High Negotiation Committee, which had demanded the step
before, welcomed this decision, while e.g. Jaish al-Islam remained
sceptical. On September 4, clashes erupted between
Jund al-Aqsa and Ahrar al-Sham in the city of Ariha, Idlib, after
the first attempt to assassinate the latter's leader. Later on,
a suicide bomber attacked the Ahrar al-Sham headquarter,
killing three and injuring several militants.
On October 7, Ahrar al-Sham accused Jund al-Aqsa of kidnapping
one ofits members and shooting his relatives, demanding
his release. In the next two days, clashes erupted
between both groups in Hama Governorate and Idlib until
a ceasefire was negotiated. Consequently, Jund al-Aqsa released
57 Ahrar al-Sham fighters and joined Jabhat Fatah
al-Sham.
On October 21, multiple simultaneous demonstrations of
5,000 participants took place all over East Ghouta, demanding
the merger of Jaish al-Islam and Failaq al-Rahman.
From November 13 until 16, the FSA-affiliated Levant Front
clashed with Ahrar al-Sham near Azaz, Aleppo Governorate.
Ahrar al-Sham seized several headquarters and checkpoints
of the Levant Front. The confrontations ended when both
groups published ajoint statement, apologizing to the population.
On December 4, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham fighters raided
the headquarters of Jaish al-Islam and Failaq al-Sham in the
city of Aleppo, in the eponymous governorate, arresting several
fighters and seizing weapons and ammunition. On December
25, allegedly, Jund al-Aqsa fighters shot dead two
commanders of the rebel coalition Free Idlib Army in Idlib.
One day later, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham detained 16 Free Idlib
Army fighters throughout Idlib after they returned from a
joint military operation with the Turkish Army (TAF) in Aleppo
Governorate. Earlier, the group had issued afatwa prohibiting
any cooperation with the TAF. At the end of December,
several major militias published ajoint statement, declaring
the aim to establish a unified military bloc. The initiative affected
about 18,000 fighters and included rival groups such
as Failaq al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam. mhb
SYRIA (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 5 | Change: | Start: 2011
Conflict parties: NC, FSA, Jaish al-Fatah vs. Jaish al-
Islam, government
Conflict items: system/ideology, national power
The war over national power and the orientation of the political
system between opposition groups and the government
of President Bashar al-Assad continued for the sixth consecutive
year.
The opposition mainly consisted of the National Coalition
for the Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NC), its
military wing Free Syrian Army (FSA), and Islamist umbrella
groups, such as the Jaish al-Fatah and Jaish al-Islam. Another
opposition group, Jabhat al-Nusra, renamed itself Jabhat Fatah
al-Sham and officially split from al-Qaeda, following the
announcement ofits emir Abu Mohammed al-Jolani on July
28.
The government was supported on the ground by Iran and
various Shiite militias from Syria and neighbouring countries,
most prominently the Lebanon-based Hezbollah. Russia has
been supporting the government with airstrikes as well as
ground forces since September 2015. Furthermore, the government,
its allies, and also opposition groups fought against
the so-called Islamic State (IS) [ → Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)].
In April, UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura estimated the
death toll to be up to 400,000 since the outbreak of war in
Syria. As of December, at least 4.8 million sought refuge in
neighbouring countries and 6.3 million were internally displaced
since 2011. Based on UNSC Resolution 2254, passed
in December 2015, a nationwide ceasefire came into effect
on February 27, excluding Jabhat al-Nusra and IS. By April, the
ceasefire had completely collapsed. On December 23, the
President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, announced that al-Assad,
Iran, and Turkey had agreed on peace talks in the Kazakh capital
of Astana. On December 29, Turkey and Russia declared
a countrywide ceasefire for Syria except for ''terrorist organizations.”
In Aleppo governorate, the government started an offensive
against opposition groups in northern Aleppo in February.
For instance, between February 1 and 3, government forces,
backed by Iranian ground forces and Russian aerial support,
lifted a three-year opposition siege of the Shiite towns of
Nubul and Zahraa in Aleppo, expelling Jabhat al-Nusra from
the area. Reportedly, hundreds of airstrikes were carried out
and about 170 people, including at least 18 civilians, were
killed. Moreover, beginning in April, government forces and
Jaish al-Fatah, led by Jabhat al-Nusra, repeatedly clashed
in southern Aleppo. Throughout the year, heavy clashes
occurred between opposition groups controlling the eastern
neighborhoods and government forces controlling the
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