ConflictBarometer_2016

GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA
DISTRIBUTION OF ALL CONFLICTS IN 2016 BY REGION
AND INTENSITY TYPE
high intensity
medium intensity
low intensity
55
60
56
41
1
20
14
25
6
30
18
7
10
27
32
Europe
sub-Saharan
Africa
the Americas
Asia and Oceania the Middle East
and Maghreb
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Asia and Oceania continued to be the region counting the
highest number of conflicts with a total of 123. As in the previous
year, the region thus accounted for about 30 percent of
all recorded conflicts. Sub-Saharan Africa again ranked second
with 94 conflicts, followed by 69 in the Middle East and
Maghreb, 62 in Europe, and 54 in the Americas.
The total number of highly violent conflicts decreased from
43 to 38 worldwide. In Asia and Oceania, the number increased
from six to seven, while it decreased from eleven
to ten in the Middle East and Maghreb and from 19 to 14 in
Africa. The number of highly violent conflicts in Europe and
the Americas remained constant. While the war in Ukraine
continued, five limited wars and one full-scale war were observed
in the Americas. The Middle East and Maghreb was
the only region which saw an increase in wars in comparison
to 2015. Both the inter-opposition conflict in Syria and
the AQAP and Ansar al-Sharia conflict in Yemen escalated to
war level [→ Syria (inter-opposition violence); Yemen (AQAP,
Ansar al-Sharia)]. Sub-Sahara Africa saw a decrease in the
number of wars from nine to seven, while in Asia and Oceania
the number dropped from two to one.
In the Middle East and Maghreb the number oflimited wars
dropped from five to two, while it increased from four to six
in Asia and Oceania with two conflicts escalating in Myanmar
[→Myanmar (TNLA / Shan State); Myanmar (Rohingya)]. With
a total of seven, Sub-Sahara Africa counted three limited wars
less than last year.
As in previous years, the region of Asia and Oceania displayed
the highest number of violent crises. However, the number
sharply decreased from 66 to 56. It was followed by Sub-
Saharan Africa with 55, the Americas with 30, the Middle
East and Maghreb with 27, and Europe with 20. With 66
percent Europe saw the highest share of non-violent conflicts
compared to its total number of conflicts. The highest
absolute number was observed in Asia and Oceania with 60
non-violent conflicts, followed by 41 in Europe, 32 in the Middle
East and Maghreb, 25 in Africa, and 18 in the Americas. chf
15
INTERSTAE - INTRASTATE - SUBSTATE -
TRANSSTATE
In 2016, the HIIK counted 401 conflicts, among them 265
intrastate, 69 interstate, 54 substate, and 13 transstate conflicts.
Among the interstate conflicts, nine were fought on the
level of a violent crisis, while the conflict between Pakistan
and India escalated to alimited war. As in previous years,
intrastate conflicts were the most common conflict type. Out
of the total 265, 171 were fought onaviolent level. Of all 54
observed substate conflicts, 33 were violent conflicts, among
them four limited wars and three wars. Transstate conflicts
were the least frequent conflict type, with only 13 out of 401
conflicts. However, including four wars, they displayed the
highest relative share of wars of all conflict types.
In Europe, as in 2015, the only violent interstate conflict was
fought between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where the violent
crisis over Nagorno-Karabakh region continued. Out of the
45 European intrastate conflicts, only the war in the Donbas
region was conducted on a highly violent level. The only
transstate conflict in Europe was the dispute between Hungary,
on the one side, and Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine, on
the other. This was also the only transstate dispute worldwide.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, two out of seven interstate conflicts
were fought on aviolent level, both evolving around territory
[→ Ethiopia – Eritrea; Sudan – South Sudan]. In contrast,
73 percent ofintrastate and 81 percent of substate conflicts
were violent. However, the highest share of violent conflicts
in Sub-Saharan Africa was observed among transstate conflicts,
where six out of seven were fought onaviolent level.
As in the last years, the Americas witnessed the fewest conflicts
in global comparison, with atotal of 53. Thereof 36
were intrastate conflicts, with 30 being conducted on a violent
level. Out of all 15 interstate conflicts, only three were
fought violently. While the violent crisis between the USA
and Mexico over border security continued, both the dispute
between the Dominican Republic and Haiti and the
non-violent crisis between Guatemala and Belize escalated
to violent crises. Both substate conflicts, one between cartels,
neo-paramilitary groups, as well as left-wing militants
in Colombia and the other between cartels and paramilitary
groups in Mexico, reached the level of a limited war.
In Asia and Oceania, two out of 19 interstate conflicts were
conducted with violent means. Of those two, the limited war