ConflictBarometer_2016

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
OMAN (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 1 | Change: | Start: 2011
Conflict parties: opposition movement vs. government
Conflict items: system/ideology
The dispute between opposition groups and the government
over the orientation of the political system continued. In
2016, at least 15 oppositional activists were arrested and
held in custody for timespans between two days and several
months.
Throughout the year, the government continued to take legal
action and imprison opposition activists and critics, among
them many who had participated in the 2011 ''Arab Spring”
protests. Frequently, prisoners were denied legal representation
as well as seeing their families. On February 8, the Primary
Court of Soha sentenced former diplomat and activist
Hassan al-Basham to three years in prison for blasphemy and
insulting Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said online. The independent
newspaper ''Azamn” was closed by the authorities
on August 9 for publishing an article on corruption allegations
against the judiciary. Subsequently, on September 26,
a court found its editor Ibrahim al-Maamarias as well as his
deputy guilty of the charges of undermining the prestige of
the state, disturbing public order and misusing the internet.
They were sentenced to three years in prison and a fine of approx.
USD 8,000 each. In another incident, a third employee,
Zaher al-Abri, was sentenced to one year in prison and a fine
of USD 2,500. Two independent newspapers stopped publishing,
both citing ''current circumstances” as a reason. On
November 8, intellectual and human rights activist Abdullah
Habib was sentenced to three years in prison andafine of approx.
USD 5,000 for spreading information that would prejudice
the state public order. son
SYRIA (INTER-OPPOSITION VIOLENCE)
Intensity: 5 | Change: | Start: 2013
Conflict parties: Jabhat al-Nusra vs. Ahrar al-Sham vs.
Islamist groups vs. NC
Conflict items: system/ideology, subnational predominance,
resources
The conflict over resources, subnational predominance, and
the orientation of the political system between the National
Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NC)
and their military wing Free Syrian Army (FSA), various moderate
and Islamist groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar
al-Sham escalated to awar. While the groups fought jointly
against the Syrian government or the so-called Islamic State
(IS) on several occasions, tensions between Islamist and moderate
groups as well as between different Islamist militias
persisted [→ Syria (opposition); Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. For instance,
in January several opposition leaders in Dar'a Governorate
were assassinated and kidnapped. The FSA-affiliated
Jaish al-Yarmouk and Jaish Ahrar al-Ashair accused the Islamist
group Harakat al-Muthanna al-Islamiya, which rejected
the accusations.
During February, several militias joined larger rebel groups in
the capital Damascus. In the beginning of February, twelve
leaders of Jund al-Aqsa defected to al-Qaida affiliated Jabhat
al-Nusra after the former had called on the group to merge.
On February 18, the militia Jaish al-Islam in East Ghouta
called on opposition fighters to join it. Four days later, Islamist
groups Ansar al-Sharia'a and al-Muntasir Billa joined
Jabhat al-Nusra. Violent clashes erupted between Ajnad al-
Sham and Jaish al-Islam when the former joined FSA-affiliated
Failaq al-Rahman.
Jabhat al-Nusra expanded its regional domination in different
governorates during January. For instance, on January
10, Jabhat al-Nusra raided a civil radio station and detained
several activists in Kafranabel, Idlib Governorate. On March
13, Jabhat al-Nusra fighters looted several storages of militia
Division 13 in Maarat al-Numan, Idlib, and surrounding
villages. During the raid and the subsequent clashes eleven
fighters were killed and 20 injured. Several Division 13 fighters
were detained by Jabhat al-Nusra. Division 13 abandoned
its positions and left the town; its leadership fled to Turkey.
In the aftermath, local residents demonstrated against Jabhat
al-Nusra, burnt down their headquarter, and freed several
detainees. The following month, local residents repeatedly
protested for the release of the remaining detainees until
Jabhat al-Nusra fulfilled this demand on April 11 and May 27.
From January to May, Jabhat al-Nusra clashed repeatedly
with Ahrar al-Sham, the second-largest rebel group, in Idlib.
On March 17, violence erupted between Ahrar al-Sham and
Jabhat-al Nusra when the former violently interrupted a
mourning ceremony of Jabhat al-Nusra in Sarmin, Idlib. In the
aftermath, a Jabhat al-Nusra commander was assassinated at
a checkpoint of Ahrar al-Sham near to Salqin city, Idlib.
In the East Ghouta region, Damascus Governorate, the clashes
between Jaish al-Islam, a union of Islamist groups, and the
FSA-affiliated Failaq al-Rahman Legion led to the death of
at least 500 people and major territorial gains for the government
between April and May. On April 18, Jaish al-Islam
fighters raided the military headquarters of Failaq al-Rahman.
On April 19, Failaq al-Rahman fighters raided Jaish al-Islamaffiliated
homes and headquarters in the towns of Misraba,
184
Zamalka, and Kafr Batna, Damascus, leaving 13 dead. The
clashes continued until May 24, when aceasefire was negotiated
with the support of the opposition-affiliated High
Negotiations Committee. On June 14, Failaq al-Rahman fighters
broke the ceasefire by attacking and capturing important
strategic positions of Jaish al-Islam.
During July, Jabhat al-Nusra succeeded to increase its influence
in Idlib by attacking different opposition groups. For
instance, on July 3, the group raided several Jaish al-Tahir positions
in Idlib and detained 40 persons, among them the
group's leader. In the aftermath, several Jabhat al-Nusra
fighter were killed, however, no group claimed responsibility