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SEC Follow Up Exhibits Part C SEC_OEA_FCIC_001760-2501

SEC Follow Up Exhibits Part C SEC_OEA_FCIC_001760-2501

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Figure 7 presents the intraday volatility pattern for the third and fourth quarters of 2007<br />

and 2008 side by side with similar graphs from other times of market turbulence,<br />

including two quarters around the 1987 market crisis and two quarters in 1997. The<br />

figure demonstrates that abnormally high end-of-day volatility was not unique to the<br />

2008 crisis. For example, in the fourth quarter of 1987, variance in the last half hour of<br />

the day was 2.50 times higher than the intraday average, even higher than the ratio of<br />

2.42 observed in the fourth quarter of 2008.<br />

Normalized Variance<br />

3<br />

2.5<br />

2<br />

1.5<br />

1<br />

0.5<br />

Figure 7<br />

Normalized Intraday Variance, S&P 500 Futures<br />

Selected High-Volatility Quarters<br />

Contribution to Daily Variance, Normalized to One<br />

0<br />

9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00<br />

Time<br />

10<br />

1987 Q4<br />

1988 Q1<br />

1997 Q1<br />

1997 Q3<br />

2007 Q3<br />

2007 Q4<br />

2008 Q3<br />

2008 Q4<br />

DRAFT: Produced by <strong>OEA</strong><br />

<strong>SEC</strong>_<strong>OEA</strong>_<strong>FCIC</strong>_001811

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