Editor's Foreword

388 THE MILITARY BALANCE 2010
account for SKW���tr (US$���bn). However, in
summer ���� it emerged that the total budget would
fall by at least �.�% and that certain procurement
programmes would be affected.
In se�ing out its priorities, the revised plan
acknowledged that developments in North Korea
required the speedier delivery of certain weapons
systems, such as artillery, cruise missiles and torpedoes,
which would come at the expense of longerterm
programmes. It also recommended a smaller
cut in troop numbers, down to ���,��� instead of the
originally planned ���,���.
The revised ���� plan includes delays to several
naval and air-force platforms, including KSS-III
submarines and air-to-air refuelling aircraft, as well
as a ��% cut in the proposed number of XK-� main
ba�le tanks, down to just ���. Also in the pipeline
is a major rethink of the future KF-X programme,
aimed at developing a new fifth-generation stealth
fighter aircraft. In July ����, the Defense Acquisition
Program Administration (DAPA) suggested that,
rather than build a fighter with superior stealth
fighting a�ributes, a cheaper option may be necessary
and that the programme might be downgraded
to create a multi-role jet on a par with an F-�� Block ��
aircraft. It had been hoped that the KF-X programme
would be entirely indigenous. However, President
Lee Myung-bak is thought to be more interested in
a thorough cost–benefit analysis, which in practice
would leave the door open to some level of participation
with a foreign manufacturer.
It had seemed that North Korea’s continuing
military activities and the ongoing modernisation
of China’s armed forces would reverse the sevenyear
decline in Japan’s defence budget. The ruling
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had appeared to
view defence spending as an emerging priority when
it implemented the Honebutu initiative, whereby the
Prime Minister’s Office is able to exert influence in the
development of budgets and arrange priorities. The
Honebutu initiative for the first time named North
Korea as a possible threat and stressed the need to
deal ‘appropriately’ with Pyongyang’s missile threat.
Before the country’s general elections, the ruling
LDP defence-policymaking panel had also requested
that ����’s new five-year National Defense Program
Guidelines (NDPG) include multi-year budgets for
sea-launched cruise missiles and a domestic earlywarning
satellite system, so that Japan would not
be reliant on the US. The Ministry of Defence (MoD)
requested an additional US$�bn for the lower tier of
its two-tier ballistic-missile shield. However, after
the August ���� elections, the victorious Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) indicated it will more inclined to
further reduce, rather than increase, the country’s military
budget. It promised instead to increase spending
on social-welfare and tuition-aid programmes.
After �� months of preparation, Australia released
its new Defence White Paper on � May ����. Entitled
Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force
����, the document sets out the strategic framework
to be adopted by Australia’s armed forces over the
coming two decades in order for them to achieve
‘the defence of Australia, the security and stability
of the regional security environment and a rulesbased
global order’. In pursuit of that goal, the White
Paper highlighted specific capability improvements
needed to make the Australian Defence Force a ‘more
potent force’, including undersea and anti-submarine
warfare, surface naval warfare, air superiority, strategic
strike, special forces, intelligence, surveillance
and reconnaissance, and cyber defence.
All three services are intended to grow, particularly
the navy, which will double its submarine fleet
to ��, acquire eight new frigates with anti-submarine
warfare (ASW) capabilities, two Landing Helicopter
Dock ships and at least �� naval-combat helicopters.
The future air force will be built on a fleet of ��� joint
strike fighters, eight maritime-patrol aircraft (MPAs)
and several high-altitude, long-range unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs). Although no new major acquisitions
are envisaged for the army, the document confirms
previously announced equipment programmes,
including the acquisition of seven Chinook helicopters
and �,��� support vehicles. It also outlines a project
to deliver a combat vehicle system that will ‘greatly
improve fire power, protection and mobility’.
To achieve these ambitious long-term procurement
goals the White Paper included a new funding
model with three specific elements:
• a �% real growth in the defence budget to
����, followed by �.�% real annual growth
from ���� to ����;
• a �.�% fixed indexation to the defence budget
from ���� to ����; and
• a strategic reform programme that will
release A$��bn of savings for redirection to
priority areas.
The government claimed these measures would
ensure a ‘fully costed’ and ‘affordable’ business plan