ONE ROOF

Overall real economic
growth (in percent) in
re gions served by
HOCHTIEF
2009 2010E
Asia excl.
Japan
6.5 8.4
Australia 0.7 2
Austria –3.8 6.3
Brazil –0.4 4.7
Chile
Czech
–1.7 4.0
Republic –4.3 1.3
Germany –4.8 1.5
Hungary 6.7 –0.9
India 5.6 7.7
Indonesia 4.0 4.8
Poland 1.0 2.2
Russia –9.0 3.6
UK
United
Arab
–4.8 1.3
Emirates –0.2 2.4
USA –2.5 2.7
Source: International
Monetary Fund (as of
January 28, 2010)
36 Annual Report 2009
Markets and Operating Environment
Global economic environment and trends
The international financial and economic crisis shaped
global trends again in 2009. The failure of several large
financial institutions also impacted negatively on the
economic situation and shook confidence in the financial
markets. As a result, the economy and economic
activity both declined. From January to June 2009, this
primarily affected the real economy and commodities
markets. However, the financial and economic system
was largely stabilized thanks to massive investments by
governments.
In the second half of the year under review, the markets
began to regain strength. However, uncertainty remains
and recovery is therefore expected to be slow.
The global economy shrank by 0.8 percent overall in
2009. Forecasts for 2010 are tentative due to continued
risks and their potential impact on the economic
situation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is anticipating
global economic growth of 3.9 percent for 2010.
Recovery will vary from region to region. After economic
output in the USA fell by 2.5 percent in the past year,
experts are anticipating growth of 2.7 percent for 2010.
The US economy significantly stabilized in the second
half of 2009 thanks to state aid programs. However,
owing to factors such as rising unemployment, it can
be expected that economic growth will be slightly
dampened in the medium term.
Negative trends in the global economy hit the export­
oriented Asian states particularly hard. However, the
situation eased in the first six months of 2009. Some
Asian countries, including China, escaped the recession
largely unscathed thanks to substantial government
stimulus. After growing by 8.7 percent in 2009,
China’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast
to increase by ten percent in 2010. India also continued
on its growth course. Following an increase of 5.6 percent
in the past fiscal year, growth of 7.7 percent is expected
for this year.
The countries of the European Union (EU) recorded a
fall of four percent in 2009. Notably the EU’s exportoriented
countries were severely affected. Several
countries from the region enacted state economic stimulus
programs to inject new vigor into the economy. The
economic situation did ease, especially from July to
December 2009. The IMF expects EU growth of one
percent in 2010.
In Russia, GDP contracted by nine percent. The marked
deterioration in the economic climate was due in part
to falling commodity prices as a result of declining demand
internationally. Additionally, many international investors
withdrew large amounts of their capital from
Russia. In the wake of the deep recession in 2009, the
IMF anticipates a slight recovery of 3.6 percent in 2010.
Markets served by HOCHTIEF
Development
Project development
General economic trends had a distinct impact on the
real estate markets. After a poor start to the year, the
second half of 2009 was decidedly more encouraging.
While most of the investment markets have already
turned a corner, however, several European office rental
markets face another difficult year in 2010. The German
real estate market in particular was very stable in
the year under review compared with the rest of Europe.
The European real estate rental market clearly suf­
fered under the poor economic conditions in the fiscal
year. Demand fell above all in the office segment. Other
segments—residential construction, for example, but
also retail—were less affected. In Germany, the rental
volume in new offices fell by around a third in 2009 compared
with the prior year. By contrast, prime rents proved
stable throughout 2009 and at the end of the year recorded
only an incremental decrease against the prior
year. Our subsidiary HOCHTIEF Projektentwicklung,
which is especially active in the high­quality property
segment, also benefited from this. After the record year
in 2008, demand for office space dropped substantially
in Eastern Europe according to CB Richard Ellis.